Team news update: tip now Lions in a blowout (63+).
Lions
12-6
Power
6-12
Lions in a blowout (63+)
The Read
Lions are the clear play here, riding a six-game winning streak at the Gabba with an attack that's firing 106 points a game and winning by an average of 40 when they get up. Power are poor travellers (2-6 away from home) and sitting 15th, which tells you plenty about their season. The key to watch is whether Power can drag this into a tight contest where they've shown they're competitive, because six of their games have been decided by two goals or less, but the Lions' current form and scoreboard punch suggests they'll run away with it.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Lions
Red-hot - riding a 6-game winning streak.
Potent attack - banging on 106.4 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 40.4 points the average winning margin.
Top-four side - sitting 4th on the ladder.
Power
When they win, they win big - 31.3 points the average winning margin.
Poor travellers - just 2-6 away from home.
Live in tight games - 6 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Long season - 15th on the ladder.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.