Today's Australian Horse Racing Tips

Over Rebel Boom?

Rebel boom's soft ground inexperience. Another Champers has the quickest recent time in the field, 3.1 lengths a km under the track average, and won one of two starts fresh. The catch is a 1.5kg weight rise and a step up from Open company, but Rebel Boom hasn't raced on soft ground yet and that's a genuine unknown.

Over Rebel Boom?

Whether the soft ground exposes rebel boom. On The Clock drops from Open to Benchmark 60 and holds three placings from six starts to prove staying power in a thin race. The barrier draw from eight is brutal, but Rebel Boom is a complete unknown on soft going and that's a real advantage to hunt.

Over Wingeandwin?

Whether resuming form holds here. Wingeandwin hasn't raced yet, so there's genuine doubt about how it'll handle a maiden field first-up. Money On My Mind ran placings in form last start, beaten just 5.5 lengths, and meets Wingeandwin at level weights from barrier 8. The catch is it's never won resuming from three tries and usually needs a run to find its feet.

Over Wingeandwin?

Whether the pace runs hot enough. Maiden fields often run at a gallop early, which helps horses from wider gates get into the race. Almas Jewel's barrier 7 becomes less of a burden if the pace is hot. Both carry the same weight, so it comes down to whether a genuine tempo run can bring this debutant into calculations.

Over Sentaloa?

Whether it settles and finishes. This race will likely be run with speed up front, which suits a fresh horse that's placed first-up before. Nightowl has 2.5kg more than Sentaloa and the worse barrier at 8, but Stockdale's riding well above expectation. It beats Sentaloa if it settles and finishes over those in front.

Over Sentaloa?

The wide draw doesn't cost it. Koyuga Rip's recorded the quickest time in the field and raced in form last start, but jumping from 12 with 2.5kg more than Sentaloa is a real ask. The Maragos/Bates combination's doing well above expectation. It beats Sentaloa if the wide draw doesn't flatten its tempo early.

Over Silent Answer?

The draw and weight advantage. Half a kilo lighter and drawn a gate closer, Hells Rein gets the physical edge. Vandyke and Wiggins are firing well above expectation with their last 100 runners, though this horse is still searching for a maiden win off two starts. It only needs to land in a rhythm from barrier 8.

Over Silent Answer?

The barrier advantage. This one's placed first-up before and the Geran stable is striking above expectation. The catch is it's still maiden after three starts, so inexperience is a real factor. From barrier 4 against Silent Answer at 9, it's got the rails edge to work with.

Over Sheistheboss?

Whether it can win first-up. Cowboykickedfive's recent form is sharp, with time figures among the best in the field and a placing last start beaten only 4L. The catch is the 2kg weight penalty plus a zero from five first-up attempts. It'll need that early speed from barrier 4 to stick with the leaders and avoid the need for a late run.

Over Sheistheboss?

Getting clear room from the back. Alexander Rae's form reads well across the last 100 runners, which is a genuine positive at this level. The hurdle is barrier 10 in an 11-runner field, and with Top Liner settling back, it'll need luck in running that Sheistheboss from barrier 9 won't require.

Over Folsomprisonhooves?

The wide barrier and late run. Folsomprisonhooves will find the front early, which should suit a runner coming from barrier seven. Pat Murphy's in form and Pride Of Hazel is 2kg better off than when they last met. From the widest barrier though, it needs to navigate across and hit the line harder than it did then.

Over Millionaire Lover?

Whether the wide barrier proves fatal. Millionaire Lover jumps from a workable barrier 4 but only has three starts and zero wins, so it's unproven at this level. Bon's A Lad placed first-up twice from four attempts and was racing in form last start, though barrier 7 and 4.5kg more weight are real headwinds. It beats Millionaire Lover if it avoids getting too far back early.

Over Millionaire Lover?

How hard it has to work from barrier. Millionaire Lover's maiden record counts against it stepping into Restricted company off just three starts. Starton won this track last start, owns two wins at Pioneer Park over 1100m and clocked the race's fastest recent time, though it's got barrier 8 and a 7.5kg weight impost. It takes this if the good gate speed gets it into the race.

Over Duskaura?

Whether the pace suits the placed runner. A genuine tempo race from barrier 2 suits a horse that's placed in both previous first-up runs and knocked on the door three times from four starts. The catch is Highland Dancer shoulders 2kg more than Duskaura, but soft barrier position and tested fitness edge out an untested maiden fresh on soft going.

Over Duskaura?

Wet track form versus sheer speed. Thirty Degrees clocked the quickest recent time in the field, splits from barrier 3, and placed when fresh from two resumptions. Unproven on soft tracks is the problem, yet it only needs those 4kg and inside gate to overcome Duskaura's first soft-going test.

Over Written Empire?

Whether the class drop sticks. Delahra's stepped back to Maiden company after running in Open, and carries 2kg less than Written Empire today. The catch is a scratchy record of one placing from three starts, but from barrier 6 it only needs an even run to prove sharper than a debutant.

Over Written Empire?

The form it brings fresh. Passio's placed both times it's raced and won first-up, so it arrives primed to strike fresh. The weight rise to 58kg matters less than Written Empire's inexperience, and Passio beats it simply by running its race from barrier 8.

Over Old Faithful?

Whether old faithful's speed holds up. Old Faithful's class drop masks a horse that led early in three of six. Golden Smile has the quickest time in the field and carries 1kg less, with Daniel Moor riding above expectation. The catch is resuming form, but from barrier 4 it can settle closer and strike if Old Faithful's early pace doesn't stick.

Over Old Faithful?

Getting clear air from a tough draw. Won last start and placed two of three first-up, so reliability at the trip is there. The K J Jones and Archie Mc Colm pairing is striking well, and Shedrivesabentley gets 8kg off Old Faithful at the weights. From barrier 8 it needs clear air in running to show that 8kg advantage matters.

Over Russian Into It?

Whether the barrier can be overcome. Russian Into It hasn't shown enough to warrant top billing in a no-bet affair, and Certain Impact carries 2.5kg less while holding the quickest recent time in the field. It resumes today with a solid first-up record, placed one from two, and only the draw from barrier 10 works against it.

Over Russian Into It?

Whether the return from a spell sticks. Briar Island has no first-up record to lean on, which is the catch, but it only needs to handle the return from a spell. The Smiley Chan and Jason Maskiell combination has been striking well above expectation across their last 100 runners together, and at 57.5kg it carries 2kg less than Russian Into It from a slightly better barrier in 5.

Over Lady Got Bling?

Whether the draw overcomes the weight. Defiance jumps from barrier 7 while Lady Got Bling fights from 12, a significant advantage on a 1200m sprint. The class jump from Maiden to Class 1 is a concern, but Defiance won last start by 4 lengths and placed in 2 of 3 first-up attempts. It beats Lady Got Bling if the barrier advantage counts for more than the weight penalty.

Over Lady Got Bling?

Whether barrier 4 early speed holds. Brucey excels fresh with 1 win from 2 first-up starts and jumps from barrier 4, well clear of Lady Got Bling's wide 12-draw. They met at Sapphire Coast in February with just 1.5 lengths separating them, so form's not a barrier. It takes this race if early speed from barrier 4 sticks in a 1200m Class 1 sprint.