Team news update: tip now Suns in a nailbiter.
Blues
✓8-10
Suns
7-11
Suns - too close to call
The Read
Blues have the home deck and form advantage, but the Suns are the better side and this one shapes as a genuine coin flip. Gold Coast's road record is dire at 1-7, yet they've shown they can win in patches and both teams live for tight contests. The thing to watch is whether the Suns can break their eight-game funk and steal one away from home, because if they get going they've got the quality to run over the top of this.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Blues
Live in tight games - 8 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Suns
When they win, they win big - 38 points the average winning margin.
Out of sorts - on a 9-game losing run.
Poor travellers - just 1-8 away from home.
Live in tight games - 4 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.