Team news update: tip now Cats in a nailbiter (was Demons).
Demons
12-7
Cats
✓11-8
Cats - too close to call
The Read
The Demons have to be slight favorites here. They're red-hot with three straight wins and own the MCG with a 7-1 home record, while the Cats are just 1-7 away from their fortress. Yes, Geelong's a higher-rated outfit that averages 98.1 points and wins big when they get going, but you can't ignore Melbourne's form and the home-ground advantage in a basically even matchup. Watch whether Geelong's travel woes bite them again or if their attack is simply too much for the Demons' defence.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Demons
Fortress at home - 7-2 on their own deck this season.
Cats
Fortress at home - 9-1 on their own deck this season.
Potent attack - banging on 99.1 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 36.5 points the average winning margin.
Poor travellers - just 2-7 away from home.
Live in tight games - 6 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.