Team news update: tip now Dockers in a blowout (60+).
Dockers
✓17-2
Eagles
4-15
Dockers in a blowout (60+)
The Read
Dockers are clear favourites here and for good reason: they're a fortress at home with an 8-0 record in Perth this season, they're outscoring opposition by nearly 30 points a game, and their defence is genuinely miserly at 70.2 points conceded. Eagles have lost six straight and can't win away from home, shipping 100 points a game and sitting 1-8 on the road. The thing to watch is whether Eagles can nick this in a tight finish, given five of their matches have gone down to the final kick, but Dockers' habit of winning big when they win makes that a long shot.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, season scoring rates, recent form, the home deck, interstate travel and rest - never from betting markets.
Dockers
Red-hot - riding a 3-game winning streak.
Miserly defence - conceding just 68.7 points a game.
Fortress at home - 9-0 on their own deck this season.
Potent attack - banging on 100.3 points a game.
When they win, they win big - 37.1 points the average winning margin.
Dominant on the scoreboard - 146% and climbing.
Eagles
Out of sorts - on a 7-game losing run.
Poor travellers - just 1-9 away from home.
Leaky at the back - shipping 100.7 points a game.
Live in tight games - 5 of their matches decided by two goals or less.
Stuttering up forward - only 70.6 points a game.
Long season - 16th on the ladder.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public AFL match data for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.