Kembla Grange · Race 8
Patrick McCabe's 90th Celebration (Bm64)
1000m · Good 4 · $42,000
Our Pick
Exfortythree
🔧 Barrier blanket first time.Resuming today. Placed first-up, one from one. Runs well fresh.
Placed last start, beaten half a length. Racing in form.
The Read
Exfortythree resumes today with a perfect first-up record (1 from 1), which is a concrete strength at this stage of the campaign. The horse was placed last start, beaten only half a length, showing it is racing in form and competitive at this level. The case leans on recent competitive placing and proven ability to run well fresh, though there is no standout speed figure to point to, so watch whether the fitness gained from that recent run translates to a winning effort today.
Key factors driving the rating up (▲) and down (▼).
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Show 8 matchupsHide matchups
Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.
Aegipan vs Donwon
Aegipan finished 7th to 10th at Randwick-Kensington 3 months ago, 3.9 lengths clear.
Honey Perfume vs Aegipan
Honey Perfume finished 1st to 7th at Newcastle last month, 2.2 lengths clear.
Indecisive vs Zoukerino
Indecisive finished 10th to 11th at Wyong a fortnight ago, 1.6 lengths clear.
Indefensible vs Zoukerino
Indefensible finished 1st to 2nd at Warwick Farm last preparation.
Kunis vs Donwon
Kunis finished 1st to 3rd at Kembla Grange two months ago, a length clear.
Noctua vs Gail Jeanette
Noctua finished 1st to 2nd at Parkes two months ago.
Tai Lung vs Honey Perfume
Tai Lung finished 3rd to 5th at Kembla Grange two months ago, half a length clear.
Tai Lung vs Zoukerino
Tai Lung finished 1st to 5th at Warwick Farm 7 months ago, a length clear.
Honey Perfume
10J: Mitchell Bell · T: Matthew Smith
Quickest recent time in the field, 0.8s under track average.
Reliable fresh - placed 2 of 3 times returning from a break.
The Read
Honey Perfume owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 0.8 seconds under the track average, which forms the core of the case. The horse is resuming today with a reliable fresh record of 2 placings from 3 first-up runs. The main thing to watch is the barrier draw, which rates as a concern for this assignment.
Indecisive
1J: Keagan Latham · T: John Thompson
Back after a break. Placed first-up in 2 of last 4 starts.
Winning form at 1000m. Two wins from 5 starts at the trip.
Barrier 1 should allow a soft run in the race.
The Read
Indecisive has a strong record resuming from a break, with 2 wins from 4 first-up starts, and that freshness factor aligns with today's assignment. The trip at 1000m suits the record, showing 2 wins from 5 starts at the distance. Barrier 1 is a practical advantage in securing a soft run in the race. The main thing to watch is recent form, which is flagged as a concern and will be critical to validating whether this horse can convert its fitness and track record into another placing.
Full Field
The read on each runner - look past the pick for value.
Indecisive🎯 Next Best
J: Keagan Latham · T: John Thompson
Indecisive has a strong record resuming from a break, with 2 wins from 4 first-up starts, and that freshness factor aligns with today's assignment. The trip at 1000m suits the record, showing 2 wins from 5 starts at the distance. Barrier 1 is a practical advantage in securing a soft run in the race. The main thing to watch is recent form, which is flagged as a concern and will be critical to validating whether this horse can convert its fitness and track record into another placing.
Zoukerino
J: Louise Day · T: J C Coyle
Zoukerino is resuming after a break with a first-up record of 2 from 7, which shows it can run competitively fresh but is hardly a standout indicator. The case leans on recent form concerns and a class move that raises questions about whether the horse can step up in grade. The main thing to watch is how it settles into the race after the lay-off and whether the class shift proves manageable.
Indefensible🔧 Blinkers again.
J: Jeff Penza · T: Joseph Pride
Indefensible steps up in class and receives a weight advantage, factors that typically strengthen a horse's case, but recent form is a concern heading into this assignment. The case leans on the strength of the class move and the weight relief, though there is no standout speed figure to build on. Watch closely that this is a first-up resumption: the record shows winless from four attempts at that stage, but does strike once into a prep, so fitness and how it settles will be the main thing to monitor. Blinkers go back on as a sharpening device.
Oceans One
J: Olivia Dalton · T: Sara Ryan
Oceans One brings genuine pace credentials to the line, posting time figures among the quickest in the field at 0.7 seconds under the track average, and enjoys the booking of in-form jockey Olivia Dalton who is riding 40% above expectation across her last 100 rides. The case leans on recent speed and jockey form as twin strengths. The main thing to watch is the first-up gate: the horse is winless from 7 resumptions but has struck twice from six starts when second-up into a preparation, so a narrow first-run outing should not rule it out if fitness permits a second run soon.
ExfortythreeTOP PICK🔧 Barrier blanket first time.
J: Brodie Loy · T: Edward Cummings
Exfortythree resumes today with a perfect first-up record (1 from 1), which is a concrete strength at this stage of the campaign. The horse was placed last start, beaten only half a length, showing it is racing in form and competitive at this level. The case leans on recent competitive placing and proven ability to run well fresh, though there is no standout speed figure to point to, so watch whether the fitness gained from that recent run translates to a winning effort today.
Tai Lung
J: Glenn Cahill · T: T J Robinson
Tai Lung is resuming after a break with a decent fresh record (3 placings from 6 first-up runs) and comes into this race off a placed effort last start, beaten only 1.5 lengths, which signals current form. The case leans on its ability to run well fresh and recent competitive performances. Watch the jockey form closely, as that sits as a concern against the rating.
Honey Perfume⚔️ Danger
J: Mitchell Bell · T: Matthew Smith
Honey Perfume owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 0.8 seconds under the track average, which forms the core of the case. The horse is resuming today with a reliable fresh record of 2 placings from 3 first-up runs. The main thing to watch is the barrier draw, which rates as a concern for this assignment.
Aegipan
J: Shaun Guymer · T: Pat Murphy
Aegipan has a solid fresh record, placed 2 of 3 first-up, and comes to the race on the back of a placed effort beaten just 2 lengths at its last start. The case leans on its proven suitability at 1000m with 6 wins from 19 starts over the distance, and Pat Murphy is in form running 65% above expectation across his last 100 runners. Watch the wide barrier 12 of 13, which will require a clean run to attack.