Brookvale Union Midway Hcp (C1)

I Am Brave has a proven record of running well fresh, with 1 win from 3 first-up attempts, and resumes today from barrier 1, which should allow a soft run in the early stages. The main thing to watch is recent form, which presents a concern that punters will need to weigh against the positive early-season pattern and draw.

Decota comes into this race with recent form and class concerns that weigh against its prospects, and there's no standout speed figure to suggest a sudden lift in performance. The positives are modest: barrier 2 offers a decent draw to secure a soft run through the race, and first-time blinkers represent a gear change that might help sharpen focus. The main thing to watch is whether the blinkers can spark an improvement that offsets the recent form dip.

Royal Corporal resumes today with a strong fresh record (1 win from 2 starts first-up) and the Litt/Bell trainer-jockey combination is striking 52% above expectation across their last 100 runners. Barrier 3 should allow a soft run into the race. The main thing to watch is whether Royal Corporal can handle any class shift in this assignment.

Ouragan resumes today with a solid first-up record (1 from 2), suggesting it runs well fresh. The horse has recorded 1 win from 3 starts on good ground, which suits the track conditions. Class is listed as a concern in the market assessment, so punters should monitor whether the horse can handle the calibre of today's field. Watch closely for the first-time winkers application, as this is an unknown variable in the run.

Mitchell Beer and George Carpenter are running 22% above expectation across their last 100 runners, which is the core strength here. The case leans on this proven trainer/jockey combination in form. Watch whether Velia's fresh record holds up, as that's the main variable to monitor given the other positives align.

Rockthevelio resumes today with a strong fresh record of 1 win from 2 first-up starts, and comes into this on the back of a placing where it was beaten just 1.5 lengths, showing current form. The trainer is in good shape and the horse is moving into a class level that suits its profile. Watch the step up in class, which is the main variable to track given the horse's recent record at lower levels.

Powerful Prayer holds the quickest recent time figure in the field at 1.6 seconds under the track average, and the Thompson/Ryan trainer-jockey combination has struck 32% above expectation over their last 100 runners, which forms a solid foundation for the case. The main concern is a distance move that hasn't been tested in recent form, and while the horse comes in fresh, its record in that condition needs close watching before committing.