Its 5 O'Clock Somewhere Keith Beefy Roberts RIP (Bm50)

Bill Peyto rates on trainer form and a favourable barrier draw from gate 1 that should allow a soft run, but the case is tempered by a class move and recent speed that sit as concerns. The horse comes back from a spell with a concerning first-up record of 0 from 4, though it does tend to strike once into a preparation with 1 win from 4 second-up starts. Watch the first-up resumption angle closely, as that's the main thing standing between this horse and a clearer case.

Bold Tyrant won last start by 4.5L at Carinda and has a positive first-up record (1 from 5 placings), so the case leans on recent winning form and a tendency to run well fresh. Barrier 2 shapes to give the horse a soft run. Watch the class move as a concern, and monitor whether recent speed holds up given the mixed signals on that front.

Lagoon resumes today from barrier 3, which offers a positive platform for a soft run in running. However, the case is undermined by three key concerns: a class move that looks steep, unproven form at the higher level, and recent form that doesn't inspire confidence. The main thing to watch is the wet track condition, as Lagoon has yet to win on soft from 10 attempts and is also winless first-up from 4 tries, a pattern that usually requires a run to sharpen.

Cheeky Nugget has the Julia Presits/Clayton Gallagher combination firing at 243% above expectation over the last 100, a genuine edge in the stable. The horse rates among the quickest recent time figures in the field, running 1.4 seconds under track average. Resume assignments have been profitable (2 from 8), so freshness today is a positive. Watch closely however: recent form is a concern, as is the class of the race, the class move involved, and the weight the horse carries - these factors are all working against the case.

Avoid Me resumes today after a break, and that's the headline concern: the horse is 0 from 6 on first-up attempts and typically needs a run to find its best. The case against backing it here rests on recent form that's raised questions, a class step that warrants caution, the jockey's current form not firing, and the weight assignment. The main thing to watch is whether the freshen-up and time away work in its favour, given the poor record at the races after a spell.

Jade Division brings the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 1.5s under the track average, and arrives in form off a narrow 1L defeat last start. The horse has a sharp record when resuming (2 from 4 placed first-up), which suits today's assignment. The main thing to watch is the class move in this race, which represents a step up that could test whether that recent speed translates at the higher level.

Aoife has jockey Jake Pracey-Holmes in the saddle, who is riding 54% above expectation across his last 100 rides, which is a genuine edge in the rider stakes. The horse returns to blinkers today, a sharpening move that suggests the stable sees something to work with. However, the main watch here is its first-up record: yet to win in 5 attempts when resuming, and it usually needs a run to find its feet. The wide barrier 7 of 8 adds another hurdle to overcome on what looks a testing assignment.

My Angel Shell comes to the races off a break with a modest first-up record (0 from 3) but has shown ability to strike second-up in a prep (1 win from 2), so timing into the campaign could work in its favour. The trainer is in good form, which underpins the case, yet recent form and a class move up are noted concerns. The main things to monitor are its wet-track record (0 wins from 6 on soft surfaces) and barrier 8, both of which could prove restrictive if conditions don't suit or luck doesn't find it from the draw.