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FormPicksSunday 20 September
Week 2Empower Field at Mile High· Fine
Broncos
0-1
vMon, 21 Sept, 6:05 am AEST
Jaguars
1-0
Our PickLine-Ball
Jaguars - too close to call
Total46 pts
🗳Do You Agree?
33 votesWinner
Jaguars
33% agree
Total
46 pts
46% over
💬 FormPicks Commentary
This is a genuine toss-up between a Broncos team that suffocates opponents at home (9-2 record, 18.3 points conceded per game) and a Jaguars offence that scores freely on the road (6-2 away, 27.9 points a game). Denver's fortress advantage and Jacksonville's explosive attack cancel each other out, so the real edge belongs to whichever defence shows up first. Watch how the Jaguars' offence handles Denver's stingy defence in the thin air; if Trevor Lawrence can move the ball early, Jacksonville's big-play capability makes them dangerous anywhere.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usJaguars 62%38%
Jacksonville's pass rush and Denver's leaky protection are the story everyone keeps coming back to. Add in a Broncos defence that looked shaky in week one and the room's lean makes plain sense.
The room is leaning the same way we are, and for good reason, Jacksonville's offence and Denver's tackling issues are the loudest signals out there. For Denver to flip it, Payton needs to tighten the offence fast and the home crowd needs to drag a sluggish defence through four quarters.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Form20 mentions
A lot of the chatter says Denver's shocking tackling and general sloppiness in the opener has people expecting Jacksonville's offense to carve them up again.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
We already had Jacksonville's firepower and Denver's leaky defence in our numbers, it is why we lean Jaguars but only by a sliver.
Coach6 mentions
There's a running debate about whether Sean Payton needs to grab back play-calling duties given how stagnant the offense looked in week one.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
Whether Payton actually takes back the play sheet this week is genuinely something we can't see from here, and it could tighten Denver's offence more than the room expects.
Matchup9 mentions
Plenty of the discussion zeroes in on Jacksonville's pass rush against Denver's shaky protection, plus the Parker Washington matchup, as the game's likely deciding factor.
FormPicks Response · Backs our call
That pass rush versus protection battle is exactly the matchup we see deciding this, it is the core of why we have Jacksonville edging it.
What's driving the pick
Factor breakdown
◀ BroncosJaguars ▶
Overall rating
EPA per play
Recent form
Home field
Rest & bye week
Availability
Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.
Broncos
🛡️
Miserly defence - conceding just 18.3 points a game last season.
🏰
Fortress at home - 9-2 in their own building last season.
👑
Own the division - 5-1 against divisional rivals last season.
🏆
Finished last season 2nd in the conference.
😬
Live in one-score games - 15 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
Jaguars
🎆
Explosive offence - putting up 27.9 points a game last season.
🚌
Road warriors - 6-2 away from home last season.
💥
When they win, they win big - 14.2 points the average winning margin last season.
👑
Own the division - 5-1 against divisional rivals last season.
🏆
Finished last season 3rd in the conference.
😬
Live in one-score games - 10 of theirs last season decided by 8 points or fewer.
📊
Team Stats · Head to Head
How each side is actually playing. A season figure marked with a year is last year's, until that side has three games on the board this one. The last 5 and last game always run back from its most recent outing, whichever season that fell in.
⚡
Momentum
Broncos
2025 season19 games
Last 55 games, 4 from 2025
Last gamemost recent
Jaguars
2025 season18 games
Last 55 games, 4 from 2025
Last gamemost recent
Last Game Key Callouts
v
Brownsv
ChiefsSacks Up 3 on their last 5 average
Defence EPA / play allowed Up 0.21 on their last 5 average
Offence EPA / play Down 0.19 on their last 5 average
📋
The Meters Behind It
SeasonLast 5Last game
Offence EPA / play
Broncos+0.02’25-0.15-0.34Jaguars+0.03’25+0.15+0.32
Defence EPA / play allowed
Broncos-0.10’25-0.12+0.09Jaguars-0.09’25-0.09-0.10
Yards per play
Broncos5.3’254.34.1Jaguars5.6’256.06.6
Passing yards
Broncos228.6’25173.2131Jaguars235.2’25253.0245
Rushing yards
Broncos114.1’2590.861Jaguars117.2’25109.2126
Explosive plays
Broncos5.6’253.81Jaguars6.3’258.69
Giveaways
Broncos1.1’251.22Jaguars1.1’250.80
Takeaways
Broncos1.0’251.61Jaguars1.8’251.62
Sacks
Broncos4.0’253.02Jaguars1.8’252.05
Sacks allowed
Broncos1.4’252.44Jaguars2.3’252.21
Penalty yards
Broncos61.8’2527.852Jaguars60.6’2526.025
Points scored
Broncos23.2’2517.810Jaguars27.7’2531.234
Points allowed
Broncos18.5’2517.431Jaguars20.2’2516.210
Full-game team stats from nflverse after each week. Blue marks the stronger side in each column - fewer giveaways, sacks allowed, penalty yards and points allowed count as better, and a lower defensive EPA per play means the defence gave less away.
🚑Ins & Outs
Marvin Mims Jr. (PR) (Broncos) out - foot
Season form guide
BroncosvsJaguars
0-1Record1-0
15 in AFCConference1 in AFC
10.0Pts for /game34.0
31.0Pts against /game10.0
0-1Division0-0
Bo NixStarting QBTrevor Lawrence
6 daysRest7 days
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public NFL data (ESPN, nflverse) for information only - not betting advice, and not derived from bookmaker odds. Past performance is not indicative of future results.