NFL Tips & Predictions - Week 9

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Tyler Huntley, the Ravens' listed starter, is doubtful with a toe sprain, and Baltimore arrive on a 3-game losing run, so the quarterback picture is the first thing to weigh. The Jaguars look the more complete side - they concede just 15.9 points a game, score 28 a game, give the ball away only 0.7 times a game, and when they win they tend to win by 19 points on average. The thing to watch is the Ravens' habit of living in one-score games, with 5 of their results this season decided by 8 points or fewer, so if this stays close, the home field and showers forecast at kick-off could keep it tighter than the lean suggests.

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The Bengals get the nod, mostly because they are the higher-rated side and more efficient per snap, with Joe Burrow leading an offence putting up 29.4 points a game against a Falcons team that coughs it up 2 times a game. Cincinnati also arrive on a 3-game winning streak and have gone 3-1 away from home this season, so playing at a neutral venue in Madrid is unlikely to bother them. The thing to watch is how close this gets, since the Bengals have been involved in 5 one-score games this season decided by 8 points or fewer, and when Michael Penix Jr.'s Falcons win, they tend to do it by 17 points on average, so a tight finish would test the lean.

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This is close to a true coin flip, but if you want a side, the Saints get the nod for playing at home on extra rest, while the Browns arrive in better recent form with a tighter defence and a short week to deal with. The key thing to watch is the turnover battle - the Saints cough it up 1.9 times a game, and a Browns offence averaging only 17.4 points a game will need every short field it can get. Both sides are used to tight finishes, with 5 of the Saints' games this season decided by 8 points or fewer and 6 of the Browns', so expect this to come down to the last possession. The Saints also ship 27.7 points a game, so their defence will have to hold up if they're going to win it.

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This is a true coin flip, so it comes down to execution. Dallas are more efficient per snap and bring an explosive offence averaging 27.4 points a game, while Indianapolis are on a 4-game losing run, coughing it up 1.9 times a game and shipping 27.8 points a game. The Colts have the home field, but the thing to watch is how Dallas handle a tight finish, since 5 of their games this season have been decided by 8 points or fewer.

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We lean Broncos, though it's no certainty. Denver are riding a 4-game winning streak, sit 3rd in the conference, and look after the ball with only 0.8 giveaways a game, which matters against a Panthers side shipping 27.6 points a game. Carolina have the home field and win big when they get on top, with a 16 point average winning margin this season, so the thing to watch is how Denver handle a close finish, since 5 of their games this season have been decided by 8 points or fewer. Conditions look fine at kick-off, so this could well come down to the final quarter.

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The Lions are the call, with Jared Goff running an offence that averages 29 points a game and arrives on a 3-game winning streak. Detroit are more efficient per snap and look after the ball, giving away only 0.6 a game, while Malik Willis has the Dolphins' home edge at Hard Rock Stadium but an offence stalling at 16.7 points a game. The thing to watch is the Lions' travel record, just 1-2 on the road this season, against a Miami side that lives in one-score games, with 4 of theirs decided by 8 points or fewer, so this could tighten late.