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UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Saturday 19 September ยท every fight on the card

Joshua Van
17-2-0
Won 5 of 5, 2 as underdogs
Last KO v Tatsuro Taira

Alexandre Pantoja
30-6-0
Won 4 of 5
Last DEC v Joshua Van

Joshua Van
to win on the cards
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Van's striking volume is the angle here. He's fresher, busier, and on a five-fight run against a grappler nine months out. I'm backing the champ on the cards. Pantoja's takedown threat and reach edge could flip it if Van eats too much damage early.
Pantoja's ranking and record reflect a grappler who can absorb punishment, which matters in a rematch after losing a decision. Joshua Van took him down before, but Pantoja's proven toughness lets him weather that and adjust his approach. If Pantoja keeps the fight upright where his ranking and experience can take over, he finds the win.
Van's speed and busy hands have the room leaning his way, same as us. The debate keeps circling back to whether Pantoja can drag this to the mat and grind it out.
Joshua Van wins by KO 19%, by submission 8%, on the cards 38%. Alexandre Pantoja wins by KO 10%, by submission 8%, on the cards 18%.
3 round fights
Joshua Van
6 of 9 to the cards ยท 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Alexandre Pantoja
7 of 12 to the cards ยท 4 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Joshua Van
1 of 2 to the cards ยท 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Alexandre Pantoja
5 of 6 to the cards ยท 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com

Arman Tsarukyan
23-3-0
Won 5 of 5
Last SUB v Dan Hooker

Mauricio Ruffy
14-2-0
Won 4 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Michael Chandler

Arman Tsarukyan
to win on the cards
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Tsarukyan's on a five-fight run while Ruffy's trading on the Chandler KO. The grappler takes less damage and controls the ground, but ten months out and a three-inch reach gap are real problems. Lean Tsarukyan to get the decision. Ruffy's knockout power could change everything.
Mauricio Ruffy's won 4 of 5 with a knockout over Michael Chandler most recently, and he's hungry after ten months watching. Tsarukyan's been out just as long, but Ruffy's the one with momentum and ranking position at number 10. If Ruffy's striking stays clean and he avoids getting taken down early, he controls the pace.
Everyone sees the same fight, a wrestler trying to smother a striker before the striker finds his range. The real tension is whether Ruffy has actually fixed the grappling gaps or just hidden them well.
Arman Tsarukyan wins by KO 17%, by submission 8%, on the cards 35%. Mauricio Ruffy wins by KO 20%, by submission 2%, on the cards 18%.
3 round fights
Arman Tsarukyan
7 of 10 to the cards ยท 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Mauricio Ruffy
1 of 6 to the cards ยท 5 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Arman Tsarukyan
1 of 2 to the cards ยท 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Mauricio Ruffy
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com
Patricio Pitbull
37-9-0
Won 1 of 3
Last DEC v Aaron Pico

Dooho Choi
17-4-1
Won 3 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Daniel Santos

Dooho Choi
to win on the cards
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Choi's won three of his last five while Pitbull's managed just one win in the same stretch, and that's no noise. The younger man is busier on the feet, harder to drag down, and has the reach advantage. I'm backing Choi to win a decision. Pitbull's a grappler though, and if he can impose himself on the canvas early, he could steal rounds.
Patricio Pitbull's a 37-9 grappler who lives on the ground. Choi will likely control the takedown battle, but Pitbull finds submissions and dominant positions when he gets there. Pitbull catches him if the scrambles stay close enough to capitalize.
Choi's reach lets him work behind the jab and keep this at arm's length all night, which is exactly the shape we like. Add in his busier output and that distance turns into rounds won, not just survived.
Patricio Pitbull wins by KO 6%, by submission 5%, on the cards 22%. Dooho Choi wins by KO 21%, by submission 9%, on the cards 36%.
3 round fights
Patricio Pitbull
3 of 3 to the cards ยท 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Dooho Choi
4 of 9 to the cards ยท 5 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Patricio Pitbull
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Dooho Choi
0 of 1 to the cards ยท 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com

Gable Steveson
4-0-0
Won 1 of 1
Last KO v Elisha Ellison

Sean Sharaf
4-2-0
Won 0 of 2
Last DEC v Steven Asplund
Not enough UFC history to call this one
A debutant has no UFC fights to build a read from, so we sit this one out rather than guess.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com

Alonzo Menifield
18-6-1
Won 3 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Zhang Mingyang

Iwo Baraniewski
9-0-0
Won 3 of 3
Last KO v Junior Tafa

Iwo Baraniewski
to get it done inside the distance
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Baraniewski's unbeaten record and recent form make him the play here, but this finish is far from certain. He's the busier striker with a reach disadvantage that could cost him. Menifield's been here before and just stopped Zhang inside the distance. The reach gap is what could undo it.
Menifield's ability to absorb damage keeps him in fights where others fold, a real advantage against strikers who need clean shots to finish. He's 3 of his last 5 with a recent KO win, proving he still finds the mark despite the reach deficit. Baraniewski gets caught if he can't establish distance early.
Iwo Baraniewski's hands look built for a fast finish, and that is the loudest chatter around this one. The flip side people keep raising is whether his engine or focus would hold if it drags.
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO 12%, by submission 4%, on the cards 25%. Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO 39%, by submission 2%, on the cards 17%.
3 round fights
Alonzo Menifield
7 of 18 to the cards ยท 11 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Iwo Baraniewski
1 of 3 to the cards ยท 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com

Marlon Vera
23-12-1
Won 1 of 5
Last DEC v David Martinez

Charles Jourdain
18-8-1
Won 3 of 5
Last DEC v Kyler Phillips

Charles Jourdain
to win on the cards
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Vera's layoff and recent form slump mean Jourdain steps in as the fresher fighter here. Jourdain's ranked for a reason - he's busier on the feet, takes cleaner shots, and he's won three of his last five. This likely goes the distance with Jourdain edging the scorecards. Only real danger is if Vera finds a way to drag him down and wrestle.
Marlon Vera's last five have been rough, winning just 1 of 5 and losing his most recent to David Martinez by decision. He's a striker at 23-12-1, but gets taken down, which matters against Jourdain's wrestling. Vera needs to stay vertical and land clean on the feet to dictate this one.
Jourdain's volume and momentum have the room leaning his way, same as us. The bigger question circling is whether Vera's decline is just bad matchups or something deeper.
Marlon Vera wins by KO 12%, by submission 7%, on the cards 23%. Charles Jourdain wins by KO 15%, by submission 8%, on the cards 36%.
3 round fights
Marlon Vera
12 of 22 to the cards ยท 7 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Charles Jourdain
10 of 17 to the cards ยท 5 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Marlon Vera
3 of 4 to the cards ยท 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Charles Jourdain
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com

Tai Tuivasa
15-10-0
Won 0 of 5
Last DEC v Louie Sutherland

Robelis Despaigne
6-2-0
Won 1 of 3
Last DEC v Austen Lane
Too close to call
Model splits it 54-46. Not enough between them to name a winner.
What splits them
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Genuine toss-up here. Tuivasa's the younger, busier striker and harder to put down, but Despaigne takes cleaner shots and owns a reach edge that matters after nearly two years out. Expect the distance. What undoes this call is Despaigne's cardio after the layoff.
Tuivasa's slide has everyone writing him off, but Despaigne's own takedown holes keep this from being a lock either way.
Tai Tuivasa wins by KO 15%, by submission 5%, on the cards 27%. Robelis Despaigne wins by KO 18%, by submission 5%, on the cards 31%.
3 round fights
Tai Tuivasa
8 of 16 to the cards ยท 8 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Robelis Despaigne
2 of 3 to the cards ยท 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Tai Tuivasa
0 of 2 to the cards ยท 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Robelis Despaigne
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com

Michael Aswell Jr.
11-5-0
Won 1 of 4
Last DEC v Gaston Bolanos

JooSang Yoo
9-1-0
Won 1 of 2
Last KO v Daniel Santos

Michael Aswell Jr.
to win on the cards
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Aswell's the busier striker and harder to take down, but he eats shots. Yoo's been out eleven months after a knockout loss, and that layoff matters. I'd back Aswell on the cards over three rounds. The concern is his reach deficit and whether he can stay clean enough to win it.
JooSang Yoo's the better striker here, and that 9-1 record speaks for itself. He takes shots well and doesn't fold when things get rough. If he keeps this on the feet where he belongs, he gets the nod.
The talk is nearly all Yoo, we are on Aswell to get his hand raised. Volume and pressure from the younger man still edge it for us over cleaner but less frequent shots.
Michael Aswell Jr. wins by KO 22%, by submission 5%, on the cards 30%. JooSang Yoo wins by KO 25%, by submission 2%, on the cards 16%.
3 round fights
Michael Aswell Jr.
3 of 4 to the cards ยท 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
JooSang Yoo
0 of 2 to the cards ยท 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com

Ryan Gandra
10-1-0
Won 2 of 2
Last KO v Zach Reese

Ozzy Diaz
10-4-0
Won 1 of 3, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Ateba Gautier

Ryan Gandra
to get it done inside the distance
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Gandra's on a roll, Diaz isn't. The younger striker lands cleaner, moves busier and takes less damage. I'm backing a stoppage, probably round one. Diaz's reach is the only real out.
Ozzy Diaz's striking keeps distance manageable despite the 5.0in reach disadvantage, and that's what troubled similar opponents. He's 10-4 with real pop in his hands, though the knockout loss to Ateba Gautier showed how costly a mistake gets at this level.
Gandra has been ending fights in a blink lately, and that finishing habit is the loudest thing in the room right now. The reach gap is the one wrinkle people keep circling back to.
Ryan Gandra wins by KO 56%, by submission 3%, on the cards 20%. Ozzy Diaz wins by KO 4%, by submission 2%, on the cards 16%.
3 round fights
Ryan Gandra
0 of 2 to the cards ยท 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Ozzy Diaz
1 of 3 to the cards ยท 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com

Edmen Shahbazyan
16-6-0
Won 3 of 5
Last DEC v Brendan Allen

Brunno Ferreira
15-4-0
Won 3 of 5, 2 as underdogs
Last DEC v Ikram Aliskerov

Edmen Shahbazyan
to win on the cards
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Shahbazyan's the busier striker with a reach advantage, and he's harder to put on his back. Ferreira's a capable grappler but the younger man should control the pace and take this on the cards. It goes the distance. The risk is Shahbazyan eats too much in the process.
Brunno Ferreira's last loss to Ikram Aliskerov came by decision, showing he can hang with strong competition without getting broken down. He's 15-4 with real balance across the board and absorbs damage better than most, meaning Shahbazyan won't find the clean finish he needs.
Shahbazyan's got the reach and the legs to fight this one at range and pick Ferreira off from the outside. The worry that keeps popping up is Ferreira's one-punch power turning it into a short night regardless.
Edmen Shahbazyan wins by KO 22%, by submission 8%, on the cards 32%. Brunno Ferreira wins by KO 13%, by submission 5%, on the cards 20%.
3 round fights
Edmen Shahbazyan
5 of 15 to the cards ยท 8 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Brunno Ferreira
2 of 10 to the cards ยท 7 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com
Casey O'Neill
11-2-0
Won 3 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Gabriella Fernandes

Eduarda Moura
12-2-0
Won 3 of 5
Last DEC v Wang Cong
Casey O'Neill
to win on the cards
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
O'Neill's the busier striker with a reach edge, but this is striker versus grappler and Moura's ranked for a reason. I'm backing O'Neill to win on the cards over the distance, though the worry is she absorbs damage and could find herself in trouble if Moura drags this to the ground.
Eduarda Moura's grappling pedigree at 12-2 and ranked 14th poses a real matchup problem for strikers who can't neutralize her on the ground. She's won 3 of the last 5 and absorbs damage well enough to weather early exchanges before her wrestling takes over. Moura gets it done if she establishes control from top position early.
O'Neill's nonstop volume is the story people keep circling, the sense she just buries opponents in output. The counter chatter is whether her battered body can sustain that pace for three rounds.
Casey O'Neill wins by KO 13%, by submission 8%, on the cards 35%. Eduarda Moura wins by KO 8%, by submission 7%, on the cards 29%.
3 round fights
Casey O'Neill
4 of 8 to the cards ยท 3 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Eduarda Moura
4 of 5 to the cards ยท 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com

Giga Chikadze
15-6-0
Won 1 of 5
Last DEC v Kevin Vallejos

Joanderson Brito
19-5-1
Won 3 of 5
Last SUB v Jordan Leavitt

Joanderson Brito
to win on the cards
๐ฌ FormPicks Commentary
Brito's won three of five while Chikadze has managed one win in the same stretch, and the difference matters. Brito takes the ground and controls the pace to a decision. The risk is Chikadze out-striking him on volume.
Giga Chikadze's striking is what keeps him in fights even when volume isn't there, and that precision matters against Joanderson Brito. Recent form's been rough, yeah, but a pure striker survives on clean technique and timing, not output. Chikadze finds his spots if he can keep this standing and make his shots count.
Brito's pressure and wrestling look like the exact puzzle Chikadze hasn't solved in years, and the feeling is his career clock is ticking louder than ever.
Giga Chikadze wins by KO 10%, by submission 4%, on the cards 23%. Joanderson Brito wins by KO 13%, by submission 15%, on the cards 34%.
3 round fights
Giga Chikadze
8 of 10 to the cards ยท 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Joanderson Brito
4 of 10 to the cards ยท 6 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Giga Chikadze
1 of 2 to the cards ยท 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Joanderson Brito
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FormPicks.com
FormPicks weighs each fighter's striking volume and what they absorb, their takedown and submission rates, how often they finish and how often they have been finished, plus reach, age, stance, layoff and current form, all measured as they stood going into the fight rather than today. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.