Cowboys at Texans - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

HOUDALWhat happenedWhat we expected (HOU 25, DAL 23)What the play deserved

The Cowboys fell 8 points behind the pace we expected in the second quarter, then it evened out by full time. A much higher scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ HOU better than we expected

+4Q110-3

+4Q26-3

-4Q37-14

-10Q47-14

▼ DAL better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 10 points worse than our numbers for the Texans.

Every score

Q1 10:01TDC.Stroud to N.Collins, 7 yards7-0
Q1 5:10FGB.Aubrey from 39 yards7-3
Q1 1:49FGK.Fairbairn from 51 yards10-3
Q2 12:30FGB.Aubrey from 50 yards10-6
Q2 2:05FGK.Fairbairn from 39 yards13-6
Q2 0:00FGK.Fairbairn from 54 yards16-6
Q3 12:55TDJ.Williams ran it in from 8 yards16-13
Q3 10:50TDC.Stroud to N.Collins, 22 yards23-13
Q3 6:49TDJ.Williams from the 123-20
Q4 11:17TDJ.Williams ran it in from 2 yards23-27
Q4 2:23TDW.Marks ran it in from 6 yards30-27
Q4 0:40TDD.Prescott to C.Lamb, 12 yards30-34

⚖️What decided it

Why the Cowboys won, and why the Texans did not.

From the game

Flagged 13 times for 90 yards

Key battles

90Penalty yards47

16First downs28

7.6Yards per play5.5

26:33Time with the ball33:27

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Texans

Good plays

3RD DOWN
C.Stroud to D.Schultz for 21 yards on 3rd & 14
Q4 2:34 · HOU 23-27 DAL
BIG PLAY
C.Stroud to J.Noel for 52 yards
Q1 4:21 · HOU 7-3 DAL
TOUCHDOWN
C.Stroud to N.Collins, 22 yards
Q3 10:50 · HOU 23-13 DAL

Bad plays

SACK
C.Stroud sacked on 3rd & 3
Q4 9:31 · HOU 23-27 DAL

Cowboys

Good plays

BIG PLAY
D.Prescott to G.Pickens for 53 yards
Q3 10:43 · HOU 23-13 DAL
TOUCHDOWN
D.Prescott to C.Lamb, 12 yards
Q4 0:40 · HOU 30-34 DAL
BIG PLAY
D.Prescott to C.Lamb for 21 yards
Q4 14:00 · HOU 23-20 DAL

Bad plays

BLOCKED
Field goal try blocked
Q2 5:02 · HOU 10-6 DAL
MISSED FG
B.Aubrey missed from 65 yards
Q2 0:30 · HOU 13-6 DAL

📊The numbers

HOU		DAL
397	Total yards	399
7.6	Yards per play	5.5
+0.23	Points added per play	+0.14
335	Passing yards	324
62	Rushing yards	75
16	First downs	28
30%	Third downs converted	36%
100%	Red zone trips scored	100%
8	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	3
90	Penalty yards	47
26:33	Time with the ball	33:27

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Texans should do their damage early, a fast start is the key to this one

Texans⭐CowboysActual

7-3

Actual 10-3

Half

14-12

Actual 16-6

17-18

Actual 23-20

Final

25-23

Actual 30-34

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Texans

Season3 games

Last 55 games, 2 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Cowboys

Season3 games

Last 55 games, 2 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

HOU

DAL

HOU

DAL

HOU

DAL

HOU

DAL

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored20.027.01731

Per playPoorGreatPoorGreat

Yards a play5.15.74.66.0

Passing yards251236167276

Rushing yards93.212770148

Big plays5.45.225

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed21.827.81934

Per playGreatBadGoodBad

Takeaways1.60.630

Sacks4.01.640

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways2.00.801

Sacks allowed3.21.831

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards55.878.61488

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ TexansCowboys ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Texans

Cowboys

Record0-31-2

Conference13 in AFC8 in NFC

Pts for / game18.029.3

Pts against / game25.027.3

Division0-11-1

Starting QBC.J. StroudDak Prescott

HOU v IND	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-4	8-8	3-6	8-5
Happened	0-3	7-10	0-0	10-6

HOU v CIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	9-9	4-6	9-5
Happened	0-0	3-7	3-10	0-3

HOU v BUF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	9-7	3-6	7-7
Happened	7-3	14-21	0-3	10-9

DAL v BAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	9-8	5-4	6-8
Happened	10-7	3-10	8-7	10-10

DAL v WSH	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	10-9	5-4	5-8
Happened	10-0	7-10	10-3	10-7

The Cowboys edged a tight one

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Texans

Cowboys

Public Opinion

HOU		IND
237	Total yards	324
4.6	Yards per play	4.6
-0.09	Points added per play	-0.11
15	First downs	19
2	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	3
3	Sacks taken	4
14	Penalty yards	41

HOU		CIN
413	Total yards	292
5.3	Yards per play	4.9
-0.25	Points added per play	-0.09
18	First downs	12
8	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	5
83	Penalty yards	78

HOU		BUF
398	Total yards	420
5.5	Yards per play	8.1
+0.07	Points added per play	+0.23
21	First downs	18
8	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
106	Penalty yards	85

DAL		BAL
424	Total yards	378
6.0	Yards per play	6.5
+0.17	Points added per play	+0.13
24	First downs	20
5	Big plays	11
1	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	0
88	Penalty yards	78

DAL		NYG
244	Total yards	395
4.7	Yards per play	5.8
+0.22	Points added per play	+0.31
16	First downs	25
1	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	2
90	Penalty yards	114

DAL v NYG	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	10-8	3-4	7-8
Happened	0-7	7-7	7-7	6-7