Patriots at Bills - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

BUFNEWhat happenedWhat we expected (BUF 25, NE 21)What the play deserved

The Patriots got 8 points ahead of the pace we expected in the fourth quarter.

Where it moved

▲ BUF better than we expected

-6Q10-7

+9Q217-7

-9Q30-7

-2Q49-8

▼ NE better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 9 points worse than our numbers for the Bills.

Every score

Q1 7:01TDD.Maye to R.Doubs, 14 yards0-7
Q2 14:15TDJ.Cook ran it in from 8 yards7-7
Q2 5:38TDR.Stevenson from the 17-14
Q2 1:00TDJ.Allen ran it in from 2 yards14-14
Q2 0:02FGT.Bass from 27 yards17-14
Q3 8:15TDD.Maye to R.Doubs, 2 yards17-21
Q4 11:07FGT.Bass from 38 yards20-21
Q4 4:27TDJ.Allen to K.Coleman, 34 yards26-21
Q4 1:50TDD.Maye to E.Chism, 23 yards, two-point try good26-29

⚖️What decided it

Why the Patriots won, and why the Bills did not.

From the game

Nothing out of the ordinary in the numbers.

Key battles

50%Red zone trips scored100%

91Rushing yards143

19First downs26

26:19Time with the ball33:41

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Bills

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
D.Alford picked off D.Maye at the NE 9
Q2 0:16 · BUF 14-14 NE
FUMBLE
G.Gaines recovered a fumble at the BUF 30
Q2 10:14 · BUF 7-7 NE
BIG PLAY
J.Allen to K.Shakir for 51 yards
Q2 3:24 · BUF 7-14 NE

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the NE 36
Q2 0:23 · BUF 14-14 NE

Patriots

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
D.Maye to E.Chism, 23 yards
Q4 1:50 · BUF 26-29 NE
FUMBLE
E.Ponder recovered a fumble at the NE 36
Q2 0:23 · BUF 14-14 NE
3RD DOWN
D.Maye to H.Henry for 12 yards on 3rd & 10
Q4 0:55 · BUF 26-29 NE

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
D.Maye picked off by D.Alford at the NE 9
Q2 0:16 · BUF 14-14 NE
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the BUF 30
Q2 10:14 · BUF 7-7 NE
PENALTY
Defensive holding on M.Jones, 5 yards
Q2 1:48 · BUF 7-14 NE

📊The numbers

BUF		NE
340	Total yards	405
6.3	Yards per play	5.5
+0.14	Points added per play	+0.19
249	Passing yards	262
91	Rushing yards	143
19	First downs	26
50%	Third downs converted	42%
50%	Red zone trips scored	100%
8	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	1
31	Penalty yards	35
26:19	Time with the ball	33:41

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Expect it tight at the break, Bills should pull clear after half-time

Bills⭐PatriotsActual

3-6

Actual 0-7

Half

12-12

Actual 17-14

16-14

Actual 17-21

Final

25-21

Actual 26-29

Bills finish strong, 34% of their points come in the fourth quarter

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Bills

Season3 games

Last 55 games, 2 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Patriots

Season3 games

Last 55 games, 2 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

BUF

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored31.611.8246

Per playGreatBadFairBad

Yards a play6.55.16.05.5

Passing yards268202204245

Rushing yards14511017683

Big plays8.66.085

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed27.017.41635

Per playPoorGoodGoodBad

Takeaways1.21.011

Sacks2.02.221

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways2.22.253

Sacks allowed2.44.043

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards65.235.88868

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ BillsPatriots ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Bills

Patriots

Record3-01-2

Conference3 in AFC11 in AFC

Pts for / game33.712.0

Pts against / game26.017.0

Division0-00-0

Starting QBJosh AllenDrake Maye

BUF v LAC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-4	8-7	5-3	11-5
Happened	0-10	10-0	0-3	14-3

BUF v DET	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	7-11	7-2	11-7
Happened	14-0	13-10	7-7	7-14

BUF v HOU	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-5	7-9	6-3	7-7
Happened	3-7	21-14	3-0	9-10

NE v JAX	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	6-7	3-5	6-5
Happened	0-0	3-14	0-14	3-7

NE v PIT	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-2	6-6	3-4	8-7
Happened	7-0	3-3	3-0	7-0

A deserved win for the Patriots, and better than we expected

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form supports the Bills

Bills

Patriots

Public Opinion

BUF		LAC
380	Total yards	357
6.0	Yards per play	5.6
+0.03	Points added per play	-0.07
21	First downs	17
8	Big plays	8
5	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	2
88	Penalty yards	50

BUF		DET
451	Total yards	393
6.5	Yards per play	6.3
+0.36	Points added per play	+0.23
29	First downs	21
12	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	4
46	Penalty yards	58

NE		JAX
328	Total yards	319
5.5	Yards per play	5.3
-0.25	Points added per play	+0.23
14	First downs	20
5	Big plays	3
3	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	1
68	Penalty yards	56

NE		PIT
344	Total yards	278
6.5	Yards per play	4.1
+0.01	Points added per play	-0.36
13	First downs	14
8	Big plays	3
2	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	4
31	Penalty yards	59

NE		SEA
287	Total yards	297
4.3	Yards per play	6.2
-0.11	Points added per play	+0.06
16	First downs	13
3	Big plays	6
3	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
50	Penalty yards	98