Dolphins at Vikings - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

MINMIAWhat happenedWhat we expected (MIN 26, MIA 15)What the play deserved

The Vikings stayed within a score of the pace we expected all game. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ MIN better than we expected

+1Q13-0

+6Q26-0

-13Q33-10

0Q43-0

▼ MIA better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 13 points worse than our numbers for the Vikings.

Every score

Q1 7:54FGW.Reichard from 47 yards3-0
Q2 7:08FGW.Reichard from 50 yards6-0
Q2 0:00FGW.Reichard from 33 yards9-0
Q3 11:56FGR.Patterson from 27 yards9-3
Q3 6:35FGW.Reichard from 41 yards12-3
Q3 0:11TDO.Gordon ran it in from 12 yards12-10
Q4 6:41FGW.Reichard from 29 yards15-10

⚖️What decided it

Why the Vikings won, and why the Dolphins did not.

From the game

Out-gained them by 138 yards, 336 to 198
Stalled near the line, no touchdowns from three trips inside the 20

Key battles

0%Red zone trips scored50%

213Passing yards77

20First downs8

44%Third downs converted22%

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Vikings

Good plays

FUMBLE
B.Cashman recovered a fumble at midfield
Q2 5:50 · MIN 6-0 MIA
BIG PLAY
K.Murray to J.Addison for 27 yards
Q4 4:22 · MIN 15-10 MIA
BIG PLAY
K.Murray to T.Hockenson for 22 yards
Q4 3:01 · MIN 15-10 MIA

Bad plays

SACK
K.Murray sacked on 3rd & 1
Q3 2:43 · MIN 12-3 MIA

Dolphins

Good plays

3RD DOWN
O.Gordon for 53 yards on 3rd & 5
Q3 14:08 · MIN 9-0 MIA
SACK
Sacked K.Murray on 3rd & 1
Q3 2:43 · MIN 12-3 MIA
TOUCHDOWN
O.Gordon, 12 yards
Q3 0:11 · MIN 12-10 MIA

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at midfield
Q2 5:50 · MIN 6-0 MIA
SACK
M.Willis sacked on 3rd & 4
Q1 3:27 · MIN 3-0 MIA

📊The numbers

MIN		MIA
336	Total yards	198
4.7	Yards per play	5.4
-0.12	Points added per play	-0.20
213	Passing yards	77
123	Rushing yards	121
20	First downs	8
44%	Third downs converted	22%
0%	Red zone trips scored	50%
6	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	2
85	Penalty yards	55
39:11	Time with the ball	20:49

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Vikings should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

Vikings⭐DolphinsActual

7-3

Actual 3-0

Half

12-10

Actual 9-0

20-12

Actual 12-10

Final

26-15

Actual 15-10

Dolphins score 58% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Vikings

Season3 games

Last 55 games, 2 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Dolphins

Season3 games

Last 55 games, 2 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

MIN

MIA

MIN

MIA

MIN

MIA

MIN

MIA

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored22.013.22310

Per playBadPoorBadBad

Yards a play4.85.14.54.9

Passing yards150187168210

Rushing yards12010178119

Big plays4.25.457

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed10.828.21624

Per playGreatBadGreatBad

Takeaways2.41.221

Sacks4.60.660

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.61.212

Sacks allowed3.63.030

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards35.060.89564

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ VikingsDolphins ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Vikings

Dolphins

Record3-00-3

Conference2 in NFC16 in AFC

Pts for / game23.712.0

Pts against / game13.728.7

Division2-00-0

Starting QBKyler MurrayMalik Willis

MIN v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	7-7	4-5	8-4
Happened	10-7	7-3	0-3	6-3

MIN v CHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	8-8	4-7	7-10
Happened	3-3	3-0	0-0	3-0

MIN v GB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	6-9	4-6	8-5
Happened	3-9	7-10	7-3	22-0

MIA v KC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	7-5	2-9	7-6
Happened	7-7	0-7	3-0	0-10

MIA v SF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-7	6-5	2-9	5-6
Happened	0-7	6-7	0-21	7-0

The Vikings edged a tight one

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form supports the Vikings

Vikings

Dolphins

Public Opinion

MIN		TB
246	Total yards	274
4.5	Yards per play	4.3
-0.26	Points added per play	-0.25
9	First downs	9
5	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	6
95	Penalty yards	81

MIN		CHI
262	Total yards	326
5.1	Yards per play	4.7
-0.08	Points added per play	-0.13
10	First downs	16
4	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	4
25	Penalty yards	58

MIN		GB
258	Total yards	453
4.2	Yards per play	6.8
-0.02	Points added per play	-0.17
14	First downs	19
2	Big plays	9
1	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	4
15	Penalty yards	98

MIA		KC
329	Total yards	334
4.9	Yards per play	6.8
-0.15	Points added per play	+0.14
16	First downs	16
7	Big plays	6
2	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	0
64	Penalty yards	50

MIA		SF
299	Total yards	382
5.3	Yards per play	7.8
-0.00	Points added per play	+0.44
12	First downs	22
3	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	0
50	Penalty yards	78

MIA		LV
294	Total yards	290
5.9	Yards per play	4.3
-0.16	Points added per play	-0.07
11	First downs	19
7	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	2
5	Sacks taken	0
61	Penalty yards	29