Colts at Steelers - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

PITINDWhat happenedWhat we expected (PIT 25, IND 22)What the play deserved

The Steelers got 9 points ahead of the pace we expected in the fourth quarter.

Where it moved

▲ PIT better than we expected

0Q17-6

+3Q210-7

-1Q37-6

+7Q410-3

▼ IND better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 7 points better than our numbers for the Steelers.

Every score

Q1 8:57FGS.Shrader from 57 yards0-3
Q1 8:45TDA.Rodgers to J.Warren, 80 yards7-3
Q1 6:55FGS.Shrader from 56 yards7-6
Q2 13:17TDA.Rodgers to P.Freiermuth, 1 yard14-6
Q2 7:43TDT.Warren from the 114-13
Q2 0:21FGC.Boswell from 48 yards17-13
Q3 10:23FGS.Shrader from 22 yards17-16
Q3 7:06TDJ.Warren ran it in from 50 yards24-16
Q3 2:13FGS.Shrader from 40 yards24-19
Q4 11:42FGS.Shrader from 28 yards24-22
Q4 6:35TDA.Rodgers to P.Freiermuth, 17 yards31-22
Q4 3:43FGC.Boswell from 54 yards34-22

⚖️What decided it

Why the Steelers won, and why the Colts did not.

From the game

Held firm near the line, they got one touchdown from three trips inside the 20

Key battles

100%Red zone trips scored33%

127Rushing yards66

36%Third downs converted27%

6.5Yards per play4.8

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Steelers

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
A.Rodgers to J.Warren, 80 yards
Q1 8:45 · PIT 7-3 IND
TOUCHDOWN
J.Warren, 50 yards
Q3 7:06 · PIT 24-16 IND
TOUCHDOWN
A.Rodgers to P.Freiermuth, 17 yards
Q4 6:35 · PIT 31-22 IND

Bad plays

Nothing costly of their own making.

Colts

Good plays

BIG PLAY
D.Jones to J.Downs for 42 yards
Q2 13:12 · PIT 14-6 IND
BIG PLAY
D.Jones to T.Warren for 29 yards
Q3 12:08 · PIT 17-13 IND
BIG PLAY
J.Taylor for 20 yards
Q4 12:35 · PIT 24-19 IND

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 17 at the IND 39
Q4 4:17 · PIT 31-22 IND
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 15 at the PIT 46
Q4 2:41 · PIT 34-22 IND
PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on C.Ward, 17 yards
Q2 13:25 · PIT 7-6 IND

📊The numbers

PIT		IND
352	Total yards	332
6.5	Yards per play	4.8
+0.21	Points added per play	+0.00
225	Passing yards	266
127	Rushing yards	66
16	First downs	19
36%	Third downs converted	27%
100%	Red zone trips scored	33%
5	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	1
50	Penalty yards	59
28:00	Time with the ball	32:00

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Steelers should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

Steelers⭐ColtsActual

6-3

Actual 7-6

Half

13-12

Actual 17-13

17-14

Actual 24-19

Final

25-22

Actual 34-22

Colts score 55% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Steelers

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Colts

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

PIT

IND

PIT

IND

PIT

IND

PIT

IND

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored16.626.42430

Per playBadFairGoodPoor

Yards a play5.14.96.14.1

Passing yards229208299143

Rushing yards88.410392128

Big plays5.65.675

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed23.428.42713

Per playFairFairPoorGreat

Takeaways2.20.421

Sacks2.61.822

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.62.222

Sacks allowed3.41.852

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards44.437.2505

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ SteelersColts ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Steelers

Colts

Record2-22-2

Conference9 in AFC8 in AFC

Pts for / game19.325.5

Pts against / game21.826.0

Division1-11-0

Starting QBAaron RodgersDaniel Jones

PIT v CLE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	6-5	5-3	5-9
Happened	7-0	3-21	0-0	14-6

PIT v CIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	8-6	4-4	7-7
Happened	14-7	3-10	7-3	6-7

PIT v NE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	2-5	6-6	4-3	7-8
Happened	0-7	3-3	0-3	0-7

PIT v ATL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	6-6	7-2	9-8
Happened	3-7	10-0	0-3	7-3

IND v WSH	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	10-9	6-3	6-7
Happened	0-6	10-0	10-7	10-0

A deserved win for the Steelers

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Steelers

Colts

Public Opinion

PIT		CLE
391	Total yards	380
6.1	Yards per play	6.1
+0.07	Points added per play	+0.10
19	First downs	20
7	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	2
5	Sacks taken	2
50	Penalty yards	88

PIT		CIN
430	Total yards	365
7.3	Yards per play	6.5
+0.16	Points added per play	+0.28
20	First downs	19
9	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	1
37	Penalty yards	40

PIT		NE
278	Total yards	344
4.1	Yards per play	6.5
-0.36	Points added per play	+0.01
14	First downs	13
3	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	2
4	Sacks taken	3
59	Penalty yards	31

PIT		ATL
279	Total yards	263
4.4	Yards per play	4.6
-0.24	Points added per play	-0.32
13	First downs	13
4	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	4
52	Penalty yards	96

IND		WSH
271	Total yards	332
4.1	Yards per play	5.4
-0.08	Points added per play	-0.25
16	First downs	11
5	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	2
5	Penalty yards	84

IND		HOU
324	Total yards	237
4.6	Yards per play	4.6
-0.11	Points added per play	-0.09
19	First downs	15
5	Big plays	2
3	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	3
41	Penalty yards	14

IND		KC
329	Total yards	534
5.2	Yards per play	6.8
+0.15	Points added per play	+0.23
21	First downs	29
6	Big plays	9
1	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	2
30	Penalty yards	86

IND		BAL
268	Total yards	526
5.1	Yards per play	8.2
-0.14	Points added per play	+0.27
16	First downs	23
7	Big plays	9
2	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	2
29	Penalty yards	86

IND v BAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-4	7-8	6-4	5-8
Happened	6-14	7-17	3-0	7-10