Lions at Cardinals - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

ARIDETWhat happenedWhat we expected (ARI 22, DET 25)What the play deserved

The Lions got 13 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter and stayed there. A much higher scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ ARI better than we expected

+7Q17-0

-20Q20-24

-8Q37-14

0Q47-7

▼ DET better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 20 points worse than our numbers for the Cardinals.

Every score

Q1 5:06TDJ.Brissett to T.Quitoriano, 2 yards7-0
Q2 12:22TDJ.Gibbs from the 17-7
Q2 9:30TDJ.Goff to S.LaPorta, 38 yards7-14
Q2 4:50TDJ.Goff to J.Williams, 8 yards7-21
Q2 0:53FGJ.Bates from 46 yards7-24
Q3 9:42TDJ.Goff to J.Williams, 39 yards7-31
Q3 4:22TDJ.Brissett to T.Quitoriano, 13 yards14-31
Q3 1:05TDJ.Goff from the 114-38
Q4 5:03TDJ.Gibbs ran it in from 3 yards14-45
Q4 2:11TDJ.Brissett to T.McBride, 9 yards21-45

⚖️What decided it

Why the Lions won, and why the Cardinals did not.

From the game

Got to the quarterback five times
Won the ground game, 163 rushing yards to 56

Key battles

56Rushing yards163

4Big plays10

44%Third downs converted31%

45Penalty yards31

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Cardinals

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
J.Brissett to T.McBride, 9 yards
Q4 2:11 · ARI 21-45 DET
3RD DOWN
J.Brissett to K.Bourne for 22 yards on 3rd & 11
Q1 10:18 · ARI 0-0 DET
3RD DOWN
J.Brissett to K.Bourne for 23 yards on 3rd & 10
Q2 0:36 · ARI 7-24 DET

Bad plays

SACK
J.Brissett sacked on 4th & 1
Q4 13:03 · ARI 14-38 DET
MISSED FG
C.Ryland missed from 53 yards
Q3 12:24 · ARI 7-24 DET
SACK
J.Brissett sacked on 2nd & 12
Q3 13:43 · ARI 7-24 DET

Lions

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
J.Goff to J.Williams, 39 yards
Q3 9:42 · ARI 7-31 DET
TOUCHDOWN
J.Goff to S.LaPorta, 38 yards
Q2 9:30 · ARI 7-14 DET
SACK
Sacked J.Brissett on 4th & 1
Q4 13:03 · ARI 14-38 DET

Bad plays

SACK
J.Goff sacked on 3rd & 5
Q1 13:39 · ARI 0-0 DET

📊The numbers

ARI		DET
327	Total yards	412
4.6	Yards per play	6.3
+0.02	Points added per play	+0.33
271	Passing yards	249
56	Rushing yards	163
20	First downs	24
44%	Third downs converted	31%
75%	Red zone trips scored	100%
4	Big plays	10
1	Turnovers	0
5	Sacks taken	3
45	Penalty yards	31
30:11	Time with the ball	29:49

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Lions should be in front early, expect Cardinals to come at them late

CardinalsLions⭐Actual

3-3

Actual 7-0

Half

9-13

Actual 7-24

15-18

Actual 14-38

Final

22-25

Actual 21-45

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Cardinals

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Lions

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

ARI

DET

ARI

DET

ARI

DET

ARI

DET

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored21.427.62426

Per playPoorGreatBadGreat

Yards a play5.06.14.66.7

Passing yards218309166412

Rushing yards96.210612346

Big plays3.66.045

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed30.828.63632

Per playPoorBadGoodBad

Takeaways1.41.030

Sacks1.83.243

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.20.430

Sacks allowed2.62.221

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards69.052.45567

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ CardinalsLions ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Cardinals

Lions

Record1-32-2

Conference14 in NFC10 in NFC

Pts for / game21.829.8

Pts against / game29.331.8

Division0-20-0

Starting QBJacoby BrissettJared Goff

DET v CAR	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	9-6	4-7	9-7
Happened	3-7	13-9	3-13	7-3

DET v NYJ	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	11-5	5-5	8-7
Happened	0-0	10-7	7-3	14-14

DET v BUF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	11-7	2-7	7-11
Happened	0-14	10-13	7-7	14-7

DET v NO	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	11-6	3-5	6-8
Happened	7-0	0-0	14-14	3-10

ARI v NYG	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	8-7	3-5	7-5
Happened	14-3	3-16	7-8	0-9

A deserved win for the Lions

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Lions

Cardinals

Public Opinion

DET		CAR
458	Total yards	456
6.7	Yards per play	6.3
+0.18	Points added per play	+0.24
22	First downs	27
5	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	3
67	Penalty yards	60

DET		NYJ
400	Total yards	379
6.3	Yards per play	6.2
+0.16	Points added per play	+0.10
23	First downs	21
5	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	5
41	Penalty yards	30

DET		BUF
393	Total yards	451
6.3	Yards per play	6.5
+0.23	Points added per play	+0.36
21	First downs	29
7	Big plays	12
0	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	2
58	Penalty yards	46

DET		NO
371	Total yards	501
5.1	Yards per play	5.8
+0.07	Points added per play	-0.03
24	First downs	26
8	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	3
1	Sacks taken	5
61	Penalty yards	53

ARI		NYG
289	Total yards	337
4.6	Yards per play	5.5
-0.25	Points added per play	-0.08
17	First downs	14
4	Big plays	5
3	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	4
55	Penalty yards	44

ARI		SF
373	Total yards	437
4.6	Yards per play	8.7
+0.15	Points added per play	+0.45
24	First downs	21
0	Big plays	10
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	0
86	Penalty yards	69

ARI		SEA
165	Total yards	397
3.5	Yards per play	5.9
-0.33	Points added per play	+0.13
8	First downs	21
1	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	1
48	Penalty yards	26

ARI		LAC
393	Total yards	290
5.5	Yards per play	5.7
+0.12	Points added per play	-0.24
22	First downs	15
5	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	3
111	Penalty yards	64

ARI v SF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-7	5-6	3-8	5-5
Happened	0-7	6-10	7-6	17-13

ARI v LAC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	5-9	3-6	6-6
Happened	7-7	6-0	3-7	10-0