Chargers at Chiefs - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

KCLACWhat happenedWhat we expected (KC 28, LAC 17)What the play deserved

The Chiefs got 9 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter, then it evened out by full time. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ KC better than we expected

+1Q19-3

+8Q210-0

-3Q30-3

-1Q43-0

▼ LAC better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 8 points better than our numbers for the Chiefs.

Every score

Q1 11:20FGH.Butker from 44 yards3-0
Q1 7:21TDK.Walker ran it in from 33 yards, extra point missed9-0
Q1 1:33FGC.Dicker from 23 yards9-3
Q2 1:49TDK.Walker ran it in from 2 yards16-3
Q2 0:02FGH.Butker from 50 yards19-3
Q3 10:44FGC.Dicker from 30 yards19-6
Q4 3:52FGH.Butker from 30 yards22-6

⚖️What decided it

Why the Chiefs won, and why the Chargers did not.

From the game

Out-gained them by 163 yards, 422 to 259
Won the ground game, 150 rushing yards to 73
Got to the quarterback four times and gave up no sacks
Stalled near the line, no touchdowns from three trips inside the 20
Stalled near the line, one touchdown from four trips inside the 20

Key battles

25%Red zone trips scored0%

9Big plays1

0Sacks taken4

150Rushing yards73

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Chiefs

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Cochrane picked off J.Herbert at the LAC 17
Q2 10:59 · KC 9-3 LAC
FUMBLE
D.Tranquill recovered a fumble at the KC 38
Q4 9:50 · KC 19-6 LAC
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 5 at the KC 8
Q4 1:00 · KC 22-6 LAC

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
P.Mahomes picked off by C.Hart at the LAC 20
Q2 8:37 · KC 9-3 LAC
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 1 at the LAC 1
Q3 6:34 · KC 19-6 LAC
MISSED FG
H.Butker missed from 52 yards
Q4 11:51 · KC 19-6 LAC

Chargers

Good plays

3RD DOWN
J.Herbert to Q.Johnston for 57 yards on 3rd & 12
Q3 12:26 · KC 19-3 LAC
INTERCEPTION
C.Hart picked off P.Mahomes at the LAC 20
Q2 8:37 · KC 9-3 LAC
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 1 at the LAC 1
Q3 6:34 · KC 19-6 LAC

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Herbert picked off by J.Cochrane at the LAC 17
Q2 10:59 · KC 9-3 LAC
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the KC 38
Q4 9:50 · KC 19-6 LAC
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 5 at the KC 8
Q4 1:00 · KC 22-6 LAC

📊The numbers

KC		LAC
422	Total yards	259
7.4	Yards per play	4.1
+0.08	Points added per play	-0.27
272	Passing yards	186
150	Rushing yards	73
22	First downs	15
30%	Third downs converted	31%
25%	Red zone trips scored	0%
9	Big plays	1
2	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	4
89	Penalty yards	59
30:26	Time with the ball	29:34

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Chiefs should do their damage early, a fast start is the key to this one

Chiefs⭐ChargersActual

9-3

Actual 9-3

Half

15-9

Actual 19-3

20-12

Actual 19-6

Final

28-17

Actual 22-6

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Chiefs

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Chargers

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

LAC

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored26.016.83017

Per playFairBadGreatBad

Yards a play6.15.17.14.4

Passing yards237187225121

Rushing yards147128189155

Big plays6.65.685

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed18.225.82723

Per playGreatGoodPoorGreat

Takeaways1.81.621

Sacks1.22.201

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.82.603

Sacks allowed2.83.425

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards60.076.45993

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ ChiefsChargers ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Chiefs

Chargers

Record4-00-5

Conference1 in AFC14 in AFC

Pts for / game29.516.8

Pts against / game19.325.8

Division2-00-2

Starting QBPatrick MahomesJustin Herbert

KC v LV	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-3	5-7	6-4	6-7
Happened	7-7	3-6	0-0	20-14

KC v MIA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-5	5-7	9-2	6-7
Happened	7-7	7-0	0-3	10-0

KC v IND	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	9-6	3-4	8-5
Happened	10-7	7-13	7-0	3-7

KC v DEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	6-8	5-6	6-5
Happened	7-7	7-0	10-3	7-0

LAC v DEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	6-6	5-5	4-8
Happened	0-7	3-3	14-0	0-13

A deserved win for the Chiefs

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form cuts both ways

Chiefs

Chargers

Public Opinion

KC		LV
414	Total yards	437
7.1	Yards per play	5.6
+0.13	Points added per play	+0.05
17	First downs	24
8	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	0
59	Penalty yards	30

KC		MIA
334	Total yards	329
6.8	Yards per play	4.9
+0.14	Points added per play	-0.15
16	First downs	16
6	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	0
50	Penalty yards	64

KC		IND
534	Total yards	329
6.8	Yards per play	5.2
+0.23	Points added per play	+0.15
29	First downs	21
9	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	0
86	Penalty yards	30

KC		DEN
404	Total yards	192
6.0	Yards per play	4.1
+0.09	Points added per play	-0.34
18	First downs	8
7	Big plays	1
1	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	4
60	Penalty yards	52

LAC		DEN
276	Total yards	229
4.4	Yards per play	4.0
-0.30	Points added per play	-0.27
12	First downs	12
5	Big plays	3
3	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	1
93	Penalty yards	40

LAC		SEA
336	Total yards	306
4.9	Yards per play	5.3
-0.09	Points added per play	-0.15
15	First downs	14
7	Big plays	7
4	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	3
130	Penalty yards	150

LAC		BUF
357	Total yards	380
5.6	Yards per play	6.0
-0.07	Points added per play	+0.03
17	First downs	21
8	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	5
2	Sacks taken	4
50	Penalty yards	88

LAC		LV
319	Total yards	310
5.1	Yards per play	5.2
-0.26	Points added per play	-0.13
15	First downs	13
4	Big plays	4
3	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	2
45	Penalty yards	42

LAC		ARI
290	Total yards	393
5.7	Yards per play	5.5
-0.24	Points added per play	+0.12
15	First downs	22
4	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	1
64	Penalty yards	111

LAC v BUF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-6	7-8	3-5	5-11
Happened	10-0	0-10	3-0	3-14