49ers at Falcons - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

ATLSFWhat happenedWhat we expected (ATL 19, SF 28)What the play deserved

The Falcons got 13 points ahead of the pace we expected in the third quarter and stayed there.

Where it moved

▲ ATL better than we expected

-2Q13-7

+4Q29-7

+11Q37-0

+5Q410-6

▼ SF better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 11 points better than our numbers for the Falcons.

Every score

Q1 9:22TDC.McCaffrey from the 10-7
Q1 7:06FGN.Folk from 39 yards3-7
Q2 14:54TDK.Black ran it in from 30 yards3-14
Q2 8:47TDM.Penix to N.Muse, 1 yard, extra point missed9-14
Q2 0:00FGN.Folk from 33 yards12-14
Q3 8:59TDM.Penix to K.Pitts, 5 yards19-14
Q4 14:55TDM.Penix to D.London, 21 yards26-14
Q4 5:05TDB.Purdy to K.Juszczyk, 1 yard, extra point missed26-20
Q4 1:56FGN.Folk from 31 yards29-20

⚖️What decided it

Why the Falcons won, and why the 49ers did not.

From the game

Won the turnovers, took it away four times and never gave it up
Out-gained by 105 yards, 295 to 400

Key battles

40%Red zone trips scored100%

0Turnovers4

2Big plays8

0Sacks taken2

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Falcons

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
K.Daniels picked off B.Purdy at the SF 19
Q4 2:42 · ATL 26-20 SF
FUMBLE
G.Dexter recovered a fumble at the ATL 29
Q2 4:24 · ATL 9-14 SF
TOUCHDOWN
M.Penix to D.London, 21 yards
Q4 14:55 · ATL 26-14 SF

Bad plays

Nothing costly of their own making.

49ers

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
K.Black, 30 yards
Q2 14:54 · ATL 3-14 SF
BIG PLAY
B.Purdy to J.Watkins for 35 yards
Q4 14:12 · ATL 26-14 SF
4TH DOWN
B.Purdy to J.Cowing for 11 yards on 4th & 9
Q4 12:27 · ATL 26-14 SF

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
B.Purdy picked off by K.Daniels at the SF 19
Q4 2:42 · ATL 26-20 SF
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the ATL 29
Q2 4:24 · ATL 9-14 SF
INTERCEPTION
B.Purdy picked off by J.Bates at the ATL 10
Q3 5:41 · ATL 19-14 SF

📊The numbers

ATL		SF
295	Total yards	400
4.7	Yards per play	6.2
+0.05	Points added per play	+0.07
213	Passing yards	277
82	Rushing yards	123
21	First downs	26
33%	Third downs converted	40%
40%	Red zone trips scored	100%
2	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	4
0	Sacks taken	2
39	Penalty yards	55
30:47	Time with the ball	29:13

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

49ers should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

Falcons49ers⭐Actual

6-7

Actual 3-7

Half

10-14

Actual 12-14

13-21

Actual 19-14

Final

19-28

Actual 29-20

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Falcons

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

49ers

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

ATL

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored25.830.02323

Per playFairGreatBadGreat

Yards a play6.36.75.86.5

Passing yards225251225264

Rushing yards15511963126

Big plays6.47.265

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed26.620.63117

Per playFairFairFairFair

Takeaways0.81.010

Sacks2.63.044

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways2.01.031

Sacks allowed2.41.052

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards58.062.03188

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ Falcons49ers ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Falcons

49ers

Record2-46-0

Conference11 in NFC1 in NFC

Pts for / game23.729.5

Pts against / game25.518.3

Division1-13-0

Starting QBMichael Penix Jr.Brock Purdy

SF v WSH	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	8-6	8-3	9-6
Happened	13-3	7-0	3-7	0-7

SF v SEA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-6	7-5	6-5	6-9
Happened	7-7	14-6	0-13	11-3

SF v DEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	7-6	6-4	6-6
Happened	0-3	3-0	7-0	14-11

SF v ARI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-5	6-5	8-3	5-5
Happened	7-0	10-6	6-7	13-17

SF v MIA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-6	5-6	9-2	6-5
Happened	7-0	7-6	21-0	0-7

The Falcons edged a tight one

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form supports the 49ers

49ers

Falcons

Public Opinion

SF		WSH
390	Total yards	353
6.5	Yards per play	5.8
+0.29	Points added per play	-0.01
20	First downs	15
5	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	4
88	Penalty yards	66

SF		SEA
283	Total yards	284
5.1	Yards per play	4.7
-0.12	Points added per play	-0.43
14	First downs	13
6	Big plays	4
3	Turnovers	4
3	Sacks taken	5
70	Penalty yards	46

SF		DEN
358	Total yards	296
5.5	Yards per play	4.6
+0.12	Points added per play	+0.09
19	First downs	16
8	Big plays	2
0	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	0
5	Penalty yards	44

SF		ARI
437	Total yards	373
8.7	Yards per play	4.6
+0.45	Points added per play	+0.15
21	First downs	24
10	Big plays	0
1	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	2
69	Penalty yards	86

SF		MIA
382	Total yards	299
7.8	Yards per play	5.3
+0.44	Points added per play	-0.00
22	First downs	12
7	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	4
78	Penalty yards	50

ATL		CHI
288	Total yards	403
5.8	Yards per play	5.5
-0.27	Points added per play	-0.03
10	First downs	19
6	Big plays	5
3	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	4
31	Penalty yards	133

ATL		BAL
384	Total yards	409
6.0	Yards per play	5.8
-0.02	Points added per play	+0.14
17	First downs	23
6	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	4
67	Penalty yards	40

ATL		NO
428	Total yards	336
7.6	Yards per play	4.9
+0.41	Points added per play	-0.07
22	First downs	19
9	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	2
70	Penalty yards	49

ATL		GB
498	Total yards	329
7.5	Yards per play	5.2
+0.33	Points added per play	+0.01
23	First downs	16
8	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	1
83	Penalty yards	45

ATL		CAR
302	Total yards	355
4.5	Yards per play	5.9
-0.47	Points added per play	+0.10
17	First downs	17
3	Big plays	6
5	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
39	Penalty yards	63

ATL v NO	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-2	8-5	4-8	5-8
Happened	14-0	10-7	7-3	14-14