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Warwick Farm · Race 3 · 1200m · Good 4 · $60,000

Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines (Bm68)

Wed, 11 Nov, 3:30 pm AEDT

💬FormPicks Commentary

Incredulous Dream, a stakes-winning Press Statement mare, produced this Wild Ruler as her first foal. Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald's partnership paid $220,000 for him at the 2025 Magic Millions Gold Coast sale, and he's since won back-to-back trials at Warwick Farm, the second by a neck over Dr Know (NZ).

📋

Race Analysis

Clear order

Priory Park is our top rating with a real gap to the rest.

Standout

Clear order

Two-horse race

Open race

Big field

Where the win chances sit

63% our three

2

Priory Park

Top pick

places 65%

31%

1

Letters Patent

Danger

places 49%

17%

7

Regal

Next Best

places 45%

15%

+5

The other 5between them

37%

Win chances from our ratings, place chances worked out from them. A guide to how open the race is, not a promise.

🧮What is pulling each rating

The things lifting or holding back every runner in the race, strongest first.

Swipe the grid sideways for every signal

RunnerTallyClassTrainer formClass moveRecent formAge & sexJockey formRecent speedRunning styleExperienceForm through rivalsTrial formBarrierBest speedFresh recordLate speed
2Priory Park8
1Letters Patent5
7Regal61

The rest of the field

3Miss Scandal51
5Kosei Top61
6Somerford52
8Baylie's Folly71
lifts its rating holds it back

🏁How they will settle

A speed map from where each runner has been settling in its recent starts.

RailFront of the field first

Settles back · runs on late

None

No set pattern · could go either way

1Letters Patent2Priory Park4Tokoriki5Kosei Top6Somerford8Baylie's Folly

On the speed · likes to lead

3Miss Scandal7Regal

🔁Head to head

Where Priory Park has met others in today's field, and how the weights have moved since. A starting point for your own form study.

Show 1 matchup

Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.

Letters Patent vs Somerford

Letters Patent finished 1st to 4th at Newcastle 4 months ago, a length clear.

🐎The field

Every runner in the race, our three first. Tap a number to jump to that horse, and a read to open it.

Jump to a runner

2

Priory Park

Top pick
JJames Mc Donald·TAnnabel & Rob Archibald

Last starts

1514

Career

2 wins from 4

Weight

59.5kg+4

Class

BM64→BM68
▲ Jockey form▲ Recent form▲ Recent speed▲ Age & sex🔥Hot Jockey

Won its last start by 4.5L at Kembla Grange and sits among the quickest recent time figures in the field, 3.5 lengths a km under the track average. It has won 2 from 4 starts on good ground and draws barrier 2 for a soft run, with jockey form also helping the case. Watch whether that barrier and the good ground hold up, as the case rests heavily on its recent speed and form.

Read more
1

Letters Patent

Danger
JTommy Berry·TC J Waller

Last starts

6513

Career

1 win from 4

Weight

58.0kg+2.5

Class

BM72→BM68
▲ Class▲ Age & sex▲ Jockey form▲ Trainer form🔥Hot Jockey🔧 Cross-over nose band first time.

Placed first-up (1 from 1) and runs well fresh, with trainer C J Waller 31% above expectation across the last 100 runners. In-form jockey Tommy Berry is riding 38% above expectation across the last 100 rides, and it draws barrier 1 for a soft run. Its class, age and sex all support the case, though it has no standout speed figure to lean on.

Read more
7

Regal

Next Best
JSam Clipperton·TBjorn Baker

Last starts

14

Career

1 win from 2

Weight

56.0kg+0.5

Class

Maiden→BM68
▲ Recent form▼ Class move▲ Trainer form▲ Class

Won its last start by 7L at Kembla Grange and has won 1 from 2 starts on good ground. Trainer form and class add to the case, though a class move is a concern. The main thing to watch is the wide barrier 7 of 8, which it must overcome.

Read more
3

Miss Scandal

JTim Clark·TC J Waller

Last starts

4615

Career

1 win from 5

Weight

57.0kg+1.5

Class

Class 1→BM68
▲ Class▲ Jockey form▼ Class move▲ Running style🔧 Tongue tie off first time.

The C J Waller/Tim Clark combination is striking 44% above expectation across the last 100 runs, and it draws barrier 3 for a soft run. Class and a favourable running style add to the case, along with jockey form. The main concern is a class move, so that is the thing to watch, and it has no standout speed figure.

Read more
4

Tokoriki

J ·TMatthew Smith

Last starts

No starts

Career

First starter

Weight

54.0kg

Class

BM68

This is its first run back from a spell and it has no first-up record yet, so there is no proven form to lean on from a fresh start. No single rating driver stands out in its favour. The main thing to watch is how it performs first-up after the break.

Read more
5

Kosei Top

JJason Collett·TC J Waller

Last starts

1

Career

1 win from 1

Weight

58.0kg

Class

Maiden→BM68
▲ Recent form▼ Class move▲ Experience▲ Age & sex

Won its last start by 1L at Sale and is resuming today, having placed first-up (1 from 1) and running well fresh. Trainer C J Waller is 31% above expectation across the last 100 runners, and experience and age and sex add support. The main concern is a class move up, so watch how it handles the step up in grade.

Read more
6

Somerford

JRachel King·TBrad Widdup

Last starts

146

Career

1 win from 3

Weight

55.0kg-0.5

Class

Maiden→BM68
▲ Recent form▼ Class move▲ Trial form▼ Fresh record🔥Hot Jockey

Won its last start by half a length at Kembla Grange and has won 1 from 2 starts on good ground. Trial form and in-form jockey Rachel King, riding 25% above expectation across the last 100 rides, support the case. The concern is its fresh record, and a class move adds further doubt, so watch both.

Read more
8

Baylie's Folly

JKerrin Mc Evoy·TMatthew Smith

Last starts

164

Career

1 win from 3

Weight

56.5kg

Class

Maiden→BM68
▼ Class move▲ Recent form▲ Age & sex▲ Class⚡Speed King

Owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, 4.0 lengths a km under the track average, and won its last start by 3L at Nowra. Class, age and sex add support, though a class move is a concern. The main thing to watch is the wide barrier 8 of 8, which it must overcome.

Read more

Tips are statistical estimates built from public form data for information only - not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tips are statistical estimates built from public form data for information only - not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.