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Bairnsdale · Race 2
1000m · Good 4 · $32,000
No Bet - Skip This Race
This race is too open to call.
No runner stands out clearly on the form, so we're sitting this one out. We only put up a tip when the form genuinely separates the field - the full guide is still below.
If you had to have one, this is our order
Russian Into It
⏱️ Trialled well🔧 Tongue tie first time.Placed first-up in past. Runs well when resuming today.
Eye-catching barrier trial second, beaten half a length only.
Kane Harris and Craig Newitt combo striking 118% above expectation last 100.
The Read
The case leans on its proven first-up credentials (1 from 1) and a sharp barrier trial result, beaten just half a length. Kane Harris and Craig Newitt are striking 118% above expectation as a combination over their last 100 rides. The main thing to watch is whether it can translate trial form into race performance off the freshen-up.
Key factors driving the rating up (▲) and down (▼).
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.
Certain Impact vs La Velocita
Certain Impact finished 3rd to 8th at Pakenham Synthetic last month, 3.4 lengths clear.
La Velocita vs Excelaot
La Velocita finished 7th to 10th at Moe last month, 1.4 lengths clear.
La Velocita vs Zouie
La Velocita finished 5th to 6th at Mornington 6 months ago, 3.5 lengths clear.
Certain Impact
13J: Adam Mc Cabe · T: M Croston & G Gilmour
Fastest recent time in the field, 2.5 lengths a km clear.
First-up runner with form - 1 win from 2 fresh starts.
The Read
This horse owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 2.5 lengths a km under the track average, and it has a placed first-up record (1 from 2). The speed figures and fresh-up record form a solid foundation for a winning chance here.
Over Russian Into It?
Whether the barrier can be overcome. Russian Into It hasn't shown enough to warrant top billing in a no-bet affair, and Certain Impact carries 2.5kg less while holding the quickest recent time in the field. It resumes today with a solid first-up record, placed one from two, and only the draw from barrier 10 works against it.
Briar Island
6🔧 Cross-over nose band first time.J: Jason Maskiell · T: Smiley Chan
Smiley Chan and Jason Maskiell combining at 207% above expectation last 100.
First run back from a spell, no first-up record to assess yet.
The Read
Smiley Chan and Jason Maskiell are an in-form combination, striking 207% above expectation across the last 100. This is Maskiell's first run back from a spell with no established first-up record yet, so that remains the key unknown.
Over Russian Into It?
Whether the return from a spell sticks. Briar Island has no first-up record to lean on, which is the catch, but it only needs to handle the return from a spell. The Smiley Chan and Jason Maskiell combination has been striking well above expectation across their last 100 runners together, and at 57.5kg it carries 2kg less than Russian Into It from a slightly better barrier in 5.
The read on each runner - look past the pick for value.
Nishioka
J: Nathan Punch · T: R D Griffiths
Returning from a spell with no first-up record on file, this horse draws barrier 2 to get a soft run. The unproven first-up profile in this return is the main thing to watch.
Heavy Is The Head🔧 Winkers off first time.
J: Jackie Beriman · T: Paul & Tracey Templeton
Jockey Jackie Beriman is riding 97% above expectation across the last 100 rides, providing some support here. The concern is recent form and recent speed figures have been weak, and it has no proven first-up record. The first-time winkers today are the main thing to monitor.
Briar Island🎯 Next Best🔧 Cross-over nose band first time.
J: Jason Maskiell · T: Smiley Chan
Smiley Chan and Jason Maskiell are an in-form combination, striking 207% above expectation across the last 100. This is Maskiell's first run back from a spell with no established first-up record yet, so that remains the key unknown.
Russian Into ItTOP PICK⏱️ Trialled well🔧 Tongue tie first time.
J: Craig Newitt · T: Kane Harris
The case leans on its proven first-up credentials (1 from 1) and a sharp barrier trial result, beaten just half a length. Kane Harris and Craig Newitt are striking 118% above expectation as a combination over their last 100 rides. The main thing to watch is whether it can translate trial form into race performance off the freshen-up.
Alvear🔧 Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time, lugging bit first time.
J: Celine Gaudray · T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes
Returning from a spell with no first-up record to reference, this runner lacks standout form drivers. The return from the break with an unknown first-up profile is the main thing to watch.
Certain Impact⚔️ Danger
J: Adam Mc Cabe · T: M Croston & G Gilmour
This horse owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, running 2.5 lengths a km under the track average, and it has a placed first-up record (1 from 2). The speed figures and fresh-up record form a solid foundation for a winning chance here.