F
FormPicks
Live
Back to tips

Eagle Farm · Race 2 · 1200m · Soft 5 · $40,000

Ladbrokes Odds Surge Mdn Hcp

Wed, 11 Nov, 3:51 pm AEDT

⚖️

Race Analysis

Two-horse race

We cannot split Clouded Thoughts and Stellagracia. Either could be the one.

Standout

Clear order

Two-horse race

Open race

Big field

Where the win chances sit

56% our three

3

Clouded Thoughts

Top pick

places 51%

22%

7

Stellagracia

Danger

places 49%

20%

9

Reconciliate

Next Best

places 37%

13%

+6

The other 6between them

44%

Win chances from our ratings, place chances worked out from them. A guide to how open the race is, not a promise.

🧮What is pulling each rating

The things lifting or holding back every runner in the race, strongest first.

Swipe the grid sideways for every signal

RunnerTallyClassExperienceJockey formRunning styleTrainer formLate speedRecent formRecent speedBest speedFitnessAge & sexClass moveForm through rivalsFresh recordTrial formWet form
3Clouded Thoughts51
7Stellagracia51
9Reconciliate31

The rest of the field

4Firebreak24
6Leaves Of Lorien33
10Zoulini43
11Lawes Road5
lifts its rating holds it back

🏁How they will settle

A speed map from where each runner has been settling in its recent starts.

RailFront of the field first

Settles back · runs on late

6Leaves Of Lorien

No set pattern · could go either way

1Gold In Paris2White Swan3Clouded Thoughts4Firebreak9Reconciliate10Zoulini11Lawes Road

On the speed · likes to lead

7Stellagracia

🔁Head to head

Where Clouded Thoughts has met others in today's field, and how the weights have moved since. A starting point for your own form study.

Show 6 matchups

Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.

Aristocratic Girl vs Reconciliate

Aristocratic Girl finished 4th to 6th at Eagle Farm a fortnight ago, 2.4 lengths clear.

Aristocratic Girl vs Stellagracia

Aristocratic Girl finished 4th to 8th at Eagle Farm a fortnight ago, 3.4 lengths clear.

Lawes Road vs Aristocratic Girl

Lawes Road finished 5th to 6th at Doomben last month, half a length clear.

Reconciliate vs Lawes Road

Reconciliate finished 3rd to 5th at Doomben last month, 1.4 lengths clear.

Reconciliate vs Stellagracia

Reconciliate finished 6th to 8th at Eagle Farm a fortnight ago, a length clear.

Stellagracia vs Lawes Road

Stellagracia finished 2nd to 5th at Doomben last month, a head clear.

🐎The field

Every runner in the race, our three first. Tap a number to jump to that horse, and a read to open it.

Jump to a runner

3

Clouded Thoughts

Top pick
JRyan Maloney·TT J Gollan

Last starts

3

Career

0 wins from 1

Weight

56.5kg+0.5

Class

Same, Maiden
▲ Recent form▲ Trainer form▲ Experience▼ Running style🔥Hot Jockey

It was placed last start, beaten 3L, and its recent form, trainer form and experience all support it. It draws barrier 3 for a soft run. Its running style is a concern in the rating, so that is what to watch.

Read more
7

Stellagracia

Danger
JBen E Thompson·TT J Gollan

Last starts

82

Career

0 wins from 2

Weight

58.0kg

Class

Same, Maiden
▲ Class▲ Jockey form▲ Trainer form▲ Experience🔥Hot Jockey

Its rating is backed by its class, experience, and both jockey and trainer form. There are no standout speed figures in the field to lean on. This is its first run on soft going, which is untested in these conditions and is the main thing to watch.

Read more
9

Reconciliate

Next Best
JJade Hampson·TT J Gollan

Last starts

6338

Career

0 wins from 10

Weight

54.0kg-4

Class

Same, Maiden
▲ Class▲ Trainer form▼ Jockey form▲ Late speed🔥Hot Jockey🔧 Blinkers first time.

It is among the quickest recent time figures in the field, and its class, trainer form and late speed support the rating. Jade Hampson is in form, riding 79% above expectation across the last 100 rides, though jockey form is still marked as a concern. It is wearing blinkers for the first time, which is sharpening gear, and that is the main thing to watch.

Read more
1

Gold In Paris

JDaniel Moor·TG Heinrich & B Rodgers

Last starts

No starts

Career

First starter

Weight

58.0kg

Class

Maiden
🔥Hot Jockey

In-form jockey Daniel Moor is riding 25% above expectation across the last 100 rides, and it draws barrier 1 for a soft run. This is its first run back from a spell with no first-up record yet. It is also its first run on soft going, which is untested in these conditions and is the main thing to watch.

Read more
2

White Swan

JTaylor Marshall·TC J Waller

Last starts

No starts

Career

First starter

Weight

56.5kg

Class

Maiden
🔧 Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time, lugging bit first time.

C J Waller is in form at 31% above expectation across the last 100 runners, and it draws barrier 2 for a soft run. There are no standout strengths in the rating. This is its first run back from a spell with no first-up record yet, and its first run on soft going, which is untested in these conditions and is the main thing to watch.

Read more
4

Firebreak

JJett Newman·TL F Birchley

Last starts

332

Career

0 wins from 3

Weight

55.0kg

Class

Same, Maiden
▲ Recent form▼ Class▼ Best speed▼ Recent speed📈In Form

Placed 3 of 3 career starts, which makes it knocking on the door at only 3. It was placed last start, beaten 5L, and the L F Birchley/Jett Newman combo is striking 577% above expectation (last 100). Its class and best and recent speed are the weak points, so it needs to lift to get involved.

Read more
6

Leaves Of Lorien

JOlivia Kendal·TJames Moore

Last starts

0033

Career

0 wins from 7

Weight

56.0kg+1

Class

Group 2→Maiden
▲ Class▼ Fresh record▲ Class move▼ Fitness / freshness🎯Sit 'n' Shoot⏱️ Trialled well🔧 Stallion chain off first time, tongue tie first time.

Resuming today off a winning barrier trial, won by 8L, which points to a freshening-up effort. The rating leans on its class and a class move in its favour. The main concerns are its fresh record and its fitness after a break, so that is what to watch.

Read more
10

Zoulini

JAngela Jones·TGary Doughty

Last starts

5

Career

0 wins from 1

Weight

56.0kg

Class

Same, Maiden
▲ Experience▼ Recent form▲ Late speed▼ Fitness / freshness🔥Hot Jockey⏱️ Trialled well

It resumes today off an eye-catching barrier trial, finishing 2nd beaten half a length. Gary Doughty is in form at 21% above expectation across the last 100 runners, and its experience and late speed support the rating. Its recent form and fitness after a break are concerns. The wide barrier 10 of 11 to overcome and its first run on soft going, untested in these conditions, are the main things to watch.

Read more
11

Lawes Road

JMichael Rodd·TJeff Dunn

Last starts

45

Career

0 wins from 2

Weight

57.0kg-1

Class

Same, Maiden
▲ Trainer form▲ Experience▲ Class▲ Recent speed⚡Speed King🔥Hot Jockey

It owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, 0.3 lengths a km under the track average. Jeff Dunn is in form at 31% above expectation across the last 100 runners, and trainer form, experience and class all support it. The wide barrier 11 of 11 to overcome is the main thing to watch.

Read more

ScratchedHousemaid · Aristocratic Girl

Tips are statistical estimates built from public form data for information only - not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tips are statistical estimates built from public form data for information only - not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.