Eagle Farm · Race 2 · 1200m · Soft 5 · $40,000
Ladbrokes Odds Surge Mdn Hcp
Wed, 11 Nov, 3:51 pm AEDT
Race Analysis
Two-horse race
We cannot split Clouded Thoughts and Stellagracia. Either could be the one.
Standout
Clear order
Two-horse race
Open race
Big field
Where the win chances sit
56% our three
Clouded Thoughts
Top pick
22%
Stellagracia
Danger
20%
Reconciliate
Next Best
13%
The other 6between them
44%
Win chances from our ratings, place chances worked out from them. A guide to how open the race is, not a promise.
🧮What is pulling each rating
The things lifting or holding back every runner in the race, strongest first.
Swipe the grid sideways for every signal
The rest of the field
🏁How they will settle
A speed map from where each runner has been settling in its recent starts.
Settles back · runs on late
runs on late
No set pattern · could go either way
could go either way
On the speed · likes to lead
likes to lead
🔁Head to head
Where Clouded Thoughts has met others in today's field, and how the weights have moved since. A starting point for your own form study.
Show 6 matchupsHide matchups
Where two runners other than our pick have raced each other before. Most recent meeting shown.
Aristocratic Girl vs Reconciliate
Aristocratic Girl finished 4th to 6th at Eagle Farm a fortnight ago, 2.4 lengths clear.
Aristocratic Girl vs Stellagracia
Aristocratic Girl finished 4th to 8th at Eagle Farm a fortnight ago, 3.4 lengths clear.
Lawes Road vs Aristocratic Girl
Lawes Road finished 5th to 6th at Doomben last month, half a length clear.
Reconciliate vs Lawes Road
Reconciliate finished 3rd to 5th at Doomben last month, 1.4 lengths clear.
Reconciliate vs Stellagracia
Reconciliate finished 6th to 8th at Eagle Farm a fortnight ago, a length clear.
Stellagracia vs Lawes Road
Stellagracia finished 2nd to 5th at Doomben last month, a head clear.
🐎The field
Every runner in the race, our three first. Tap a number to jump to that horse, and a read to open it.
Jump to a runner
Clouded Thoughts
Top pickLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
It was placed last start, beaten 3L, and its recent form, trainer form and experience all support it. It draws barrier 3 for a soft run. Its running style is a concern in the rating, so that is what to watch.
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Stellagracia
DangerLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
Its rating is backed by its class, experience, and both jockey and trainer form. There are no standout speed figures in the field to lean on. This is its first run on soft going, which is untested in these conditions and is the main thing to watch.
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Reconciliate
Next BestLast starts
Career
Weight
Class
It is among the quickest recent time figures in the field, and its class, trainer form and late speed support the rating. Jade Hampson is in form, riding 79% above expectation across the last 100 rides, though jockey form is still marked as a concern. It is wearing blinkers for the first time, which is sharpening gear, and that is the main thing to watch.
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Gold In Paris
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
In-form jockey Daniel Moor is riding 25% above expectation across the last 100 rides, and it draws barrier 1 for a soft run. This is its first run back from a spell with no first-up record yet. It is also its first run on soft going, which is untested in these conditions and is the main thing to watch.
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White Swan
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
C J Waller is in form at 31% above expectation across the last 100 runners, and it draws barrier 2 for a soft run. There are no standout strengths in the rating. This is its first run back from a spell with no first-up record yet, and its first run on soft going, which is untested in these conditions and is the main thing to watch.
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Firebreak
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Placed 3 of 3 career starts, which makes it knocking on the door at only 3. It was placed last start, beaten 5L, and the L F Birchley/Jett Newman combo is striking 577% above expectation (last 100). Its class and best and recent speed are the weak points, so it needs to lift to get involved.
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Leaves Of Lorien
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
Resuming today off a winning barrier trial, won by 8L, which points to a freshening-up effort. The rating leans on its class and a class move in its favour. The main concerns are its fresh record and its fitness after a break, so that is what to watch.
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Zoulini
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
It resumes today off an eye-catching barrier trial, finishing 2nd beaten half a length. Gary Doughty is in form at 21% above expectation across the last 100 runners, and its experience and late speed support the rating. Its recent form and fitness after a break are concerns. The wide barrier 10 of 11 to overcome and its first run on soft going, untested in these conditions, are the main things to watch.
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Lawes Road
Last starts
Career
Weight
Class
It owns the quickest recent time figure in the field, 0.3 lengths a km under the track average. Jeff Dunn is in form at 31% above expectation across the last 100 runners, and trainer form, experience and class all support it. The wide barrier 11 of 11 to overcome is the main thing to watch.
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ScratchedHousemaid · Aristocratic Girl