Loading UFC bout…
F
FormPicksSunday 20 September
L Heavy · 3 rounds
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
#13Striker
Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
18-6-1
Striker
Iwo Baraniewski
"Rudy"
9-0-0
WLWWL
Won 3 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Zhang Mingyang
WWW
Won 3 of 3
Last KO v Junior Tafa
Our pick
Iwo Baraniewski
to get it done inside the distance
MethodKO/TKORound1Finish70%
Slight lean · 59%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Baraniewski's unbeaten record and recent form make him the play here, but this finish is far from certain. He's the busier striker with a reach disadvantage that could cost him. Menifield's been here before and just stopped Zhang inside the distance. The reach gap is what could undo it.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usBaraniewski 72%28%
Iwo Baraniewski's hands look built for a fast finish, and that is the loudest chatter around this one. The flip side people keep raising is whether his engine or focus would hold if it drags.
The room is basically leaning where we landed, seeing Baraniewski's speed and finishing habit as the story of the fight. For Menifield to flip it, he probably needs either an early clinch-heavy smother or one clean shot in the pocket before Baraniewski ever settles in.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Matchup16 mentions
Most reckon Baraniewski's quick hands and heavy one punch power mean he can end things early if Menifield switches off in close range.
FormPicks Response · Backs our call
That quick-hands, fight-ending picture is exactly why we have Baraniewski winning inside the distance rather than just winning.
Fitness16 mentions
Plenty of the talk is about how Baraniewski's bouts have all wrapped up early, so nobody really knows if his stamina and cool head can hold up should this one go the distance.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
We already flagged that nobody has seen his gas tank tested, which is exactly why our call is a lean and not a lock.
Matchup15 mentions
Several previews argue Menifield's only real chance is to smother the action in the clinch and along the fence rather than trade in open space.
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
We do not think the clinch is Menifield's only route, his own pop means he can still find something in open space early before Baraniewski gets rolling.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Menifield 41%How it ends59% Baraniewski
Alonzo Menifield wins by KO 12%, by submission 4%, on the cards 25%. Iwo Baraniewski wins by KO 39%, by submission 2%, on the cards 17%.
The distanceJudges 43%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~10 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
- Younger man
- Busier striker
- Harder to take down
- Absorbs more damage
- 3.0in reach deficit
Factor breakdown
Damage absorbed
Age
Striking volume
Knockdowns absorbed
Reach
Takedowns conceded
Experience
Takedowns landed
Green favours Iwo Baraniewski, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
3.83Strikes landed / min11.29
3.90Strikes absorbed / min8.91
0.70Knockdowns / 15 min17.82
0.50Knockdowns absorbed / 154.46
Grappling
0.50Takedowns / 15 min0.00
1.10Takedowns conceded / 150.00
0.20Sub attempts / 15 min0.00
Finishing
64%Wins by finish67%
67%Losses by finish0%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
⚡
FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Alonzo Menifield
Career18 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Iwo Baraniewski
Career3 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Alonzo Menifield
7 of 20 to the cards · 13 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Iwo Baraniewski
1 of 4 to the cards · 3 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
6' 0"Height6' 0"
76"Reach73"
38Age27
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
On scheduleLayoffOn schedule
18UFC fights3
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.