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F
FormPicksSunday 20 September
W Fly · 3 rounds
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Balanced
Casey O'Neill
"King"
11-2-0
#14Grappler
Eduarda Moura
"Ronda"
12-2-0
WWLLW
Won 3 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Gabriella Fernandes
LWWLW
Won 3 of 5
Last DEC v Wang Cong
Our pick
Casey O'Neill
to win on the cards
MethodDecisionFinish37%
Slight lean · 55%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
O'Neill's the busier striker with a reach edge, but this is striker versus grappler and Moura's ranked for a reason. I'm backing O'Neill to win on the cards over the distance, though the worry is she absorbs damage and could find herself in trouble if Moura drags this to the ground.
🗣️
Public Opinion
The room is with usO'Neill 72%28%
O'Neill's nonstop volume is the story people keep circling, the sense she just buries opponents in output. The counter chatter is whether her battered body can sustain that pace for three rounds.
The room is leaning the same way we are, seeing O'Neill's busy striking as the difference maker while flagging her durability as the obvious crack. For them to be wrong, Moura needs to drag this into repeated grappling exchanges and make O'Neill work through a control-heavy fight rather than a striking one.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Matchup12 mentions
Most people reckon that if this one plays out on the feet, O'Neill's ridiculous volume of strikes will simply wear Moura down and bury him.
FormPicks Response · Backs our call
This is our exact read, O'Neill's output on the feet is the whole thesis behind the pick.
Form9 mentions
There's a running thread of sympathy and slight caution around O'Neill given how battered her body has been by injuries, with people wondering if she can string together sustained activity like this again.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
We already flagged the durability worry ourselves, it is why this is a slight lean and not a strolling pick.
Selection15 mentions
Moura's history of missing weight keeps coming up as a nagging worry about her preparation and discipline heading into this one.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
We didn't weigh her weight-cut history at all, and if it signals a rough camp that's a live unknown that could tip things Moura's way.
Matchup8 mentions
Some are careful to note Moura is tough and has never been finished, so even the pessimists on her chances think she can survive and make it competitive if she can drag O'Neill into grappling exchanges.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
Moura dragging this into grappling is exactly the takedown concern we already had baked into our caution.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
O'Neill 55%How it ends45% Moura
Casey O'Neill wins by KO 13%, by submission 8%, on the cards 35%. Eduarda Moura wins by KO 8%, by submission 7%, on the cards 29%.
The distanceJudges 64%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~12 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
Why O'Neill
- Busier striker
- Younger man
- 2.0in reach edge
- Absorbs more damage
- Gives up the takedown battle
- Gets taken down
Factor breakdown
Striking volume
Damage absorbed
Age
Takedowns landed
Takedowns conceded
Reach
Finishing rate
Experience
Green favours Casey O'Neill, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Casey O'Neill
Head to head
Striking
7.89Strikes landed / min2.63
5.53Strikes absorbed / min2.65
0.17Knockdowns / 15 min0.00
0.00Knockdowns absorbed / 150.22
Grappling
1.40Takedowns / 15 min3.57
1.05Takedowns conceded / 150.45
0.70Sub attempts / 15 min0.22
Finishing
67%Wins by finish33%
0%Losses by finish0%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
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FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Casey O'Neill
Career8 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Eduarda Moura
Career5 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Casey O'Neill
4 of 8 to the cards · 3 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Eduarda Moura
4 of 6 to the cards · 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
5' 6"Height5' 6"
69"Reach67"
28Age32
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
On scheduleLayoff7 months out
8UFC fights5
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.