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F
FormPicksSunday 20 September
Feather · 3 rounds
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Striker
Michael Aswell Jr.
"The Texas Kid"
11-5-0
Striker
JooSang Yoo
"Zombie Jr."
9-1-0
LLWL
Won 1 of 4
Last DEC v Gaston Bolanos
LW
Won 1 of 2
Last KO v Daniel Santos
Our pick
Michael Aswell Jr.
to win on the cards
MethodDecisionFinish48%
Slight lean · 57%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Aswell's the busier striker and harder to take down, but he eats shots. Yoo's been out eleven months after a knockout loss, and that layoff matters. I'd back Aswell on the cards over three rounds. The concern is his reach deficit and whether he can stay clean enough to win it.
🗣️
Public Opinion
We are against the roomYoo 62%38%
The talk is nearly all Yoo, we are on Aswell to get his hand raised. Volume and pressure from the younger man still edge it for us over cleaner but less frequent shots.
The room is leaning on Yoo's cleaner striking and Aswell's rough patch, and that is a fair read if Yoo's shots are landing hard enough to outweigh getting outworked.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Matchup12 mentions
Several previews reckon Yoo's harder, more accurate shots will win rounds even if Aswell throws more and pressures him.
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
We think Aswell's volume and pressure pile up rounds on the cards even when Yoo lands the cleaner individual shot.
Form10 mentions
Writers keep pointing out Aswell has dropped two straight and is winless in 2026, framing this as a must-win spot for him.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
His two losses and drought are exactly why this is a slight lean rather than a confident call.
Fitness10 mentions
There is chatter about how much rust Yoo could be carrying after being out of action for close to a year.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
If Yoo shakes off the layoff quickly and looks sharp from round one, that changes our read fast.
Talk6 mentions
A couple of previews back Aswell anyway, arguing his durability and pressure can wear down a Yoo who has been finished before and might fade if the fight goes longer.
FormPicks Response · Backs our call
This is the same shape we see, durability and pressure wearing down a fighter with a finish history.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Jr. 57%How it ends43% Yoo
Michael Aswell Jr. wins by KO 22%, by submission 5%, on the cards 30%. JooSang Yoo wins by KO 25%, by submission 2%, on the cards 16%.
The distanceJudges 45%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~10 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
- Younger man
- Harder to take down
- Busier striker
- Absorbs more damage
- 2.0in reach deficit
Factor breakdown
Age
Damage absorbed
Takedowns conceded
Knockdowns absorbed
Reach
Experience
Striking volume
Knockdown power
Green favours Michael Aswell Jr., red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Head to head
Striking
6.72Strikes landed / min6.36
7.11Strikes absorbed / min4.99
0.64Knockdowns / 15 min2.58
0.00Knockdowns absorbed / 152.58
Grappling
0.32Takedowns / 15 min0.00
0.32Takedowns conceded / 152.58
0.00Sub attempts / 15 min0.00
Finishing
100%Wins by finish100%
0%Losses by finish100%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
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FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Michael Aswell Jr.
Career4 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
JooSang Yoo
Career2 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Michael Aswell Jr.
4 of 5 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
JooSang Yoo
0 of 2 to the cards · 2 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
5' 8"Height5' 7"
69"Reach71"
25Age32
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
On scheduleLayoff1 years out
4UFC fights2
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.