W Bantam · 3 rounds · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Macy Chiasson v Bia Mesquita
Our pickBia Mesquita to find the finish on the ground
💬FormPicks Commentary
Bia Mesquita's three straight wins look real, and her submission of Melissa Mullins backs that up. Macy Chiasson is back after eight months out and a loss to Ailin Perez, so rust is a worry. I like Mesquita to finish it on the ground, most likely by submission. Her 5.0in reach deficit could keep her at range, and that's the risk.
How this fight goes
🥊How it ends
Who wins and how. Six outcomes in one bar - the seam between the colours is the win chance.
Macy Chiasson wins by KO 9%, by submission 5%, on the cards 24%. Bia Mesquita wins by KO 9%, by submission 30%, on the cards 22%.
⏱The distance
Our finish chance, spread across the rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges.
What's driving the pick
🧮Factor breakdown
Green favours Bia Mesquita, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
Head to head
Striking
Grappling
Finishing
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Macy Chiasson
Bia Mesquita
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Macy Chiasson
8 of 13 to the cards · 4 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Bia Mesquita
0 of 3 to the cards · 3 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Macy Chiasson
0 of 1 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Bia Mesquita
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec