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FormPicksSunday 20 September
Feather · 3 rounds
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Grappler
Patricio Pitbull
37-9-0
Balanced
Dooho Choi
"The Korean Superboy"
17-4-1
LWL
Won 1 of 3
Last DEC v Aaron Pico
WWWDL
Won 3 of 5, 1 as an underdog
Last KO v Daniel Santos
Our pick
Dooho Choi
to win on the cards
MethodDecisionFinish46%
Solid call · 66%
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Choi's won three of his last five while Pitbull's managed just one win in the same stretch, and that's no noise. The younger man is busier on the feet, harder to drag down, and has the reach advantage. I'm backing Choi to win a decision. Pitbull's a grappler though, and if he can impose himself on the canvas early, he could steal rounds.
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Public Opinion
The room is with usChoi 72%28%
Choi's reach lets him work behind the jab and keep this at arm's length all night, which is exactly the shape we like. Add in his busier output and that distance turns into rounds won, not just survived.
The room is basically reading this the same way we are, with the length and jab doing the heavy lifting in most of the chatter. For Pitbull to turn it, he needs that puncher's chance to actually land early or his grappling to drag Choi into deep water, because on a clean striking night the range keeps beating him.
Public Opinion Key Callouts
Matchup16 mentions
The clearest sticking point in the chatter is Choi's four inch height and reach edge, with most previews reckoning that length lets him work behind a jab and keep the fight at a distance Pitbull hates.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
That reach and jab picture is the exact thing driving our call, so the room seeing it too just backs the read.
Form9 mentions
A fair few reckon his stint under the UFC banner hasn't lived up to what he did in Bellator, with just one win from three cage outings and a scrappy battle against Pico, which has plenty saying age is finally catching up…
FormPicks Response · We don't see it
We see that UFC stretch as levels and ring rust rather than a fighter suddenly ageing out overnight.
Fitness8 mentions
Plenty are asking whether Pitbull can still take a punch this deep into his career, given that heavy knockout loss from years back has folks doubting his chin holds up like it used to.
FormPicks Response · Already in our call
Pitbull's chin questions are already baked into why we like Choi's cleaner output over the distance.
Talk15 mentions
A recurring counter-argument is that Pitbull still has a puncher's chance if Choi gets careless, since his counter striking and underrated grappling could punish anyone who walks straight into him.
FormPicks Response · Could move us
If Pitbull's counter power or that underrated grappling actually connects early, that is the live unknown that flips this whole call.
How this fight goes
Who wins, how, and when, in one read. Both are drawn from the same model figures as the pick above.
Pitbull 34%How it ends66% Choi
Patricio Pitbull wins by KO 6%, by submission 5%, on the cards 22%. Dooho Choi wins by KO 21%, by submission 9%, on the cards 36%.
The distanceJudges 58%
Ends by KO/TKO Ends by submission Goes to the judges Still going at the start of the round
Expect ~11 min of cage timeThe model's finish probability, spread across rounds by when UFC finishes actually land. The columns add up to the finish figure on the pick and the line ends on the chance it reaches the judges, so this can never disagree with the tip.
What's driving the pick
- Busier striker
- Younger man
- 3.0in reach edge
- Takes less damage
- Harder to take down
- Gives up the takedown battle
Factor breakdown
Striking volume
Age
Reach
Finishing rate
Damage absorbed
Experience
Takedowns conceded
Takedowns landed
Green favours Dooho Choi, red runs against them. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight, not as it stands today.
Patricio Pitbull
Head to head
Striking
2.69Strikes landed / min5.00
4.82Strikes absorbed / min4.43
0.00Knockdowns / 15 min0.90
0.33Knockdowns absorbed / 150.54
Grappling
2.00Takedowns / 15 min1.26
2.33Takedowns conceded / 151.98
0.33Sub attempts / 15 min0.54
Finishing
0%Wins by finish83%
0%Losses by finish33%
Longer bar is the better side of each row. Every figure is measured as it stood going into this fight.
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FormPicks Momentum Meter
50 = a .500 fighterHow each fighter is actually going - the career, the last three weighted by what each was worth, and their most recent night. The longer the bar, the better the form.
Patricio Pitbull
Career3 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
Dooho Choi
Career10 UFC fights
Last 3recency weighted
Last fightmost recent
How their fights end
Every UFC fight, by the round it ended3 round fights
Patricio Pitbull
3 of 3 to the cards · 0 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
Dooho Choi
4 of 9 to the cards · 5 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
Dec
5 round fights
Patricio Pitbull
none yetR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Dooho Choi
0 of 1 to the cards · 1 inside two roundsR1
R2
R3
R4
R5
Dec
Win Loss Submission (ringed)
Tale of the tape
5' 6"Height5' 10"
67"Reach70"
39Age35
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
On scheduleLayoffOn schedule
3UFC fights10
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tips are for information only, not betting advice.