Packers at Buccaneers - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

TBGBWhat happenedWhat we expected (TB 21, GB 26)What the play deserved

The Packers stayed within a score of the pace we expected all game. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ TB better than we expected

+2Q10-0

+1Q27-10

-8Q30-7

+6Q47-0

▼ GB better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 8 points worse than our numbers for the Buccaneers.

Every score

Q2 12:54TDJ.Love to M.Golden, 2 yards0-7
Q2 5:13TDS.Tucker ran it in from 2 yards7-7
Q2 0:00FGT.Smack from 58 yards7-10
Q3 10:32TDJ.Love to T.Kraft, 2 yards7-17
Q4 14:49TDJ.Daniels to K.Gainwell, 10 yards14-17

⚖️What decided it

Why the Packers won, and why the Buccaneers did not.

From the game

The Buccaneers started Jalon Daniels at quarterback, not Baker Mayfield
Got to the quarterback three times and gave up no sacks

Key battles

17Penalty yards68

42%Third downs converted20%

3Sacks taken0

141Rushing yards86

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Buccaneers

Good plays

FUMBLE
Z.McCollum recovered a fumble at the TB 4
Q4 9:13 · TB 14-17 GB
INTERCEPTION
J.Parrish picked off J.Love at the TB 15
Q4 4:26 · TB 14-17 GB
TOUCHDOWN
J.Daniels to K.Gainwell, 10 yards
Q4 14:49 · TB 14-17 GB

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Daniels picked off by E.Cooper at the TB 44
Q2 0:41 · TB 7-7 GB
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 11 at the GB 47
Q4 1:34 · TB 14-17 GB
INTERCEPTION
J.Daniels picked off by E.Williams at the GB 32
Q1 7:15 · TB 0-0 GB

Packers

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
E.Cooper picked off J.Daniels at the TB 44
Q2 0:41 · TB 7-7 GB
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 11 at the GB 47
Q4 1:34 · TB 14-17 GB
INTERCEPTION
E.Williams picked off J.Daniels at the GB 32
Q1 7:15 · TB 0-0 GB

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the TB 4
Q4 9:13 · TB 14-17 GB
INTERCEPTION
J.Love picked off by J.Parrish at the TB 15
Q4 4:26 · TB 14-17 GB

📊The numbers

TB		GB
275	Total yards	283
4.5	Yards per play	5.1
-0.04	Points added per play	+0.02
134	Passing yards	197
141	Rushing yards	86
19	First downs	15
42%	Third downs converted	20%
100%	Red zone trips scored	67%
4	Big plays	3
2	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	0
17	Penalty yards	68
29:50	Time with the ball	30:10

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Packers should do their damage early, a fast start is the key to this one

BuccaneersPackers⭐Actual

3-6

Actual 0-0

Half

9-16

Actual 7-10

14-20

Actual 7-17

Final

21-26

Actual 14-17

Packers score 55% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Buccaneers

Season3 games

Last 55 games, 2 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Packers

Season3 games

Last 55 games, 2 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored19.017.21614

Per playPoorPoorBadFair

Yards a play5.45.14.35.2

Passing yards233240217312

Rushing yards95.274.65717

Big plays4.46.234

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed22.627.62335

Per playGoodPoorGreatBad

Takeaways1.01.011

Sacks1.62.030

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways2.20.821

Sacks allowed3.62.661

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards54.477.68145

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ BuccaneersPackers ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Buccaneers

Packers

Record0-31-2

Conference16 in NFC15 in NFC

Pts for / game20.718.7

Pts against / game26.330.3

Division0-00-1

Starting QBJalon DanielsJordan Love

GB v ATL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-2	8-7	8-3	5-7
Happened	7-7	0-10	0-7	7-11

GB v NYJ	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	9-5	6-4	4-9
Happened	0-0	7-7	0-7	10-3

GB v MIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	9-6	6-4	5-8
Happened	9-3	10-7	3-7	0-22

TB v MIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	7-7	5-4	4-8
Happened	7-10	3-7	3-0	3-6

TB v CLE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	8-6	6-7	5-3	5-5
Happened	6-3	3-3	7-10	3-7

The Packers edged a tight one

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Packers

Buccaneers

Public Opinion

GB		ATL
329	Total yards	498
5.2	Yards per play	7.5
+0.01	Points added per play	+0.33
16	First downs	23
4	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	0
45	Penalty yards	83

GB		NYJ
208	Total yards	314
4.2	Yards per play	4.4
-0.22	Points added per play	-0.10
12	First downs	17
3	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	4
133	Penalty yards	156

GB		MIN
453	Total yards	258
6.8	Yards per play	4.2
-0.17	Points added per play	-0.02
19	First downs	14
9	Big plays	2
2	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	3
98	Penalty yards	15

TB		MIN
274	Total yards	246
4.3	Yards per play	4.5
-0.25	Points added per play	-0.26
9	First downs	9
3	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	1
6	Sacks taken	3
81	Penalty yards	95

TB		CLE
319	Total yards	282
5.1	Yards per play	5.1
-0.15	Points added per play	+0.01
16	First downs	13
7	Big plays	2
1	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
62	Penalty yards	50

TB		CIN
305	Total yards	360
5.9	Yards per play	5.7
-0.13	Points added per play	-0.05
17	First downs	24
3	Big plays	7
4	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	1
39	Penalty yards	47