Eagles at Jaguars - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

JAXPHIWhat happenedWhat we expected (JAX 24, PHI 17)What the play deserved

The Jaguars fell 11 points behind the pace we expected in the second quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ JAX better than we expected

+5Q17-0

-16Q20-14

+3Q33-0

+4Q49-3

▼ PHI better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 16 points worse than our numbers for the Jaguars.

Every score

Q1 5:26TDT.Lawrence to P.Washington, 51 yards7-0
Q2 8:46TDW.Shipley ran it in from 2 yards7-7
Q2 5:31TDJ.Hurts to D.Cooper, 62 yards7-14
Q3 7:11FGC.Little from 34 yards10-14
Q4 3:20TDT.Lawrence to P.Washington, 27 yards, extra point missed16-14
Q4 0:08FGJ.Elliott from 48 yards16-17
Q4 0:00FGC.Little from 57 yards19-17

⚖️What decided it

Why the Jaguars won, and why the Eagles did not.

From the game

Out-gained them by 176 yards, 408 to 232
Won the ground game, 102 rushing yards to 22
Flagged 13 times for 100 yards
The score ran about 11 points harsher than the play, special teams and short fields the usual reasons
Stalled near the line, no touchdowns from three trips inside the 20

Key battles

0%Red zone trips scored100%

102Rushing yards22

8Big plays1

100Penalty yards43

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Jaguars

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
T.Lawrence to P.Washington, 51 yards
Q1 5:26 · JAX 7-0 PHI
TOUCHDOWN
T.Lawrence to P.Washington, 27 yards
Q4 3:20 · JAX 16-14 PHI
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 1 at the JAX 37
Q1 6:56 · JAX 0-0 PHI

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 5 at the PHI 5
Q4 6:40 · JAX 10-14 PHI
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 1 at the PHI 1
Q2 0:01 · JAX 7-14 PHI
PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on T.Hunter, 14 yards
Q2 9:33 · JAX 7-0 PHI

Eagles

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
J.Hurts to D.Cooper, 62 yards
Q2 5:31 · JAX 7-14 PHI
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 5 at the PHI 5
Q4 6:40 · JAX 10-14 PHI
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 1 at the PHI 1
Q2 0:01 · JAX 7-14 PHI

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 1 at the JAX 37
Q1 6:56 · JAX 0-0 PHI
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 3 at the JAX 43
Q3 3:51 · JAX 10-14 PHI
SACK
J.Hurts sacked on 2nd & 10
Q4 3:09 · JAX 16-14 PHI

📊The numbers

JAX		PHI
408	Total yards	232
6.0	Yards per play	3.9
+0.06	Points added per play	-0.20
306	Passing yards	210
102	Rushing yards	22
18	First downs	13
31%	Third downs converted	40%
0%	Red zone trips scored	100%
8	Big plays	1
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	1
100	Penalty yards	43
35:02	Time with the ball	24:58

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Jaguars should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

Jaguars⭐EaglesActual

6-3

Actual 7-0

Half

12-9

Actual 7-14

16-12

Actual 10-14

Final

24-17

Actual 19-17

Jaguars score 56% of their points before half-time
Eagles score 55% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Jaguars

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Eagles

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

JAX

PHI

JAX

PHI

JAX

PHI

JAX

PHI

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored25.618.82220

Per playGreatPoorGreatBad

Yards a play6.04.96.33.4

Passing yards21017622793

Rushing yards125115111104

Big plays6.43.862

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed16.023.21724

Per playFairPoorPoorFair

Takeaways1.80.822

Sacks2.01.021

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.81.000

Sacks allowed1.82.644

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards51.248.212557

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ JaguarsEagles ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Jaguars

Eagles

Record3-12-2

Conference2 in AFC11 in NFC

Pts for / game26.018.8

Pts against / game13.323.3

Division0-01-0

Starting QBTrevor LawrenceJalen Hurts

JAX v CIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	9-7	5-5	5-6
Happened	3-0	10-3	3-7	6-7

JAX v NE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	7-6	5-3	5-6
Happened	0-0	14-3	14-0	7-3

JAX v DEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	8-6	6-5	5-6
Happened	0-0	10-3	3-3	0-14

JAX v CLE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-6	7-6	6-2	5-6
Happened	14-0	10-0	10-3	0-7

PHI v LAR	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	7-5	5-4	6-8
Happened	3-3	17-7	0-0	0-14

A deserved win for the Jaguars

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Jaguars

Eagles

Public Opinion

JAX		CIN
338	Total yards	451
6.3	Yards per play	6.4
+0.19	Points added per play	+0.05
16	First downs	23
6	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	2
4	Sacks taken	2
125	Penalty yards	108

JAX		NE
319	Total yards	328
5.3	Yards per play	5.5
+0.23	Points added per play	-0.25
20	First downs	14
3	Big plays	5
1	Turnovers	3
1	Sacks taken	3
56	Penalty yards	68

JAX		DEN
284	Total yards	392
5.2	Yards per play	6.6
-0.05	Points added per play	+0.06
17	First downs	20
5	Big plays	9
1	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	0
40	Penalty yards	53

JAX		CLE
371	Total yards	292
6.6	Yards per play	6.0
+0.32	Points added per play	-0.10
21	First downs	14
9	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	5
25	Penalty yards	75

PHI		LAR
197	Total yards	423
3.4	Yards per play	5.5
-0.29	Points added per play	+0.03
10	First downs	23
2	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	2
4	Sacks taken	1
57	Penalty yards	100

PHI		CHI
260	Total yards	375
5.5	Yards per play	5.4
-0.23	Points added per play	+0.03
13	First downs	20
5	Big plays	4
3	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	0
61	Penalty yards	45

PHI		TEN
353	Total yards	305
4.9	Yards per play	6.0
+0.04	Points added per play	+0.08
21	First downs	14
4	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
35	Penalty yards	45

PHI		WSH
339	Total yards	296
6.4	Yards per play	4.4
+0.07	Points added per play	+0.06
10	First downs	19
6	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	1
40	Penalty yards	45

PHI v WSH	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-2	8-7	6-2	5-9
Happened	0-3	14-6	3-0	7-13