Browns at Jets - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

NYJCLEWhat happenedWhat we expected (NYJ 20, CLE 23)What the play deserved

The Jets got 8 points ahead of the pace we expected in the fourth quarter. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ NYJ better than we expected

+4Q17-3

+1Q20-3

-1Q30-0

+4Q410-6

▼ CLE better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 4 points better than our numbers for the Jets.

Every score

Q1 9:17TDG.Smith to G.Wilson, 32 yards7-0
Q1 3:27FGA.Szmyt from 25 yards7-3
Q2 10:14FGA.Szmyt from 41 yards7-6
Q4 14:37FGJ.Sanders from 54 yards10-6
Q4 6:15TDD.Watson to D.Boston, 29 yards, extra point missed10-12
Q4 3:01TDB.Allen ran it in from 22 yards17-12

⚖️What decided it

Why the Jets won, and why the Browns did not.

From the game

Got to the quarterback eight times
Flagged 10 times for 102 yards

Key battles

102Penalty yards30

47%Third downs converted25%

4Sacks taken8

4.2Yards per play3.0

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Jets

Good plays

FUMBLE
T.Wallace recovered a fumble at the CLE 23
Q4 4:01 · NYJ 10-12 CLE
TOUCHDOWN
B.Allen, 22 yards
Q4 3:01 · NYJ 17-12 CLE
TOUCHDOWN
G.Smith to G.Wilson, 32 yards
Q1 9:17 · NYJ 7-0 CLE

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the NYJ 43
Q4 4:20 · NYJ 10-12 CLE
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the CLE 7
Q3 5:57 · NYJ 7-6 CLE
PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on B.Stephens, 14 yards
Q4 9:18 · NYJ 10-6 CLE

Browns

Good plays

FUMBLE
A.Huntington recovered a fumble at the NYJ 43
Q4 4:20 · NYJ 10-12 CLE
TOUCHDOWN
D.Watson to D.Boston, 29 yards
Q4 6:15 · NYJ 10-12 CLE
BIG PLAY
D.Watson to I.Bond for 30 yards
Q4 14:26 · NYJ 10-6 CLE

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the CLE 23
Q4 4:01 · NYJ 10-12 CLE
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the CLE 17
Q4 0:57 · NYJ 17-12 CLE
SACK
D.Watson sacked on 1st & 15
Q4 13:41 · NYJ 10-6 CLE

📊The numbers

NYJ		CLE
276	Total yards	198
4.2	Yards per play	3.0
-0.18	Points added per play	-0.30
142	Passing yards	102
134	Rushing yards	96
14	First downs	13
47%	Third downs converted	25%
0%	Red zone trips scored	0%
7	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	2
4	Sacks taken	8
102	Penalty yards	30
31:25	Time with the ball	28:35

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Browns should be in front early, expect Jets to come at them late

JetsBrowns⭐Actual

6-6

Actual 7-3

Half

9-13

Actual 7-6

14-17

Actual 7-6

Final

20-23

Actual 17-12

Jets score 57% of their points after half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Jets

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Browns

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

NYJ

CLE

NYJ

CLE

NYJ

CLE

NYJ

CLE

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored16.820.21227

Per playPoorFairBadGood

Yards a play5.05.25.66.1

Passing yards192193119268

Rushing yards81.098.659112

Big plays4.04.225

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed23.822.62324

Per playFairFairFairPoor

Takeaways0.81.222

Sacks1.82.815

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.21.202

Sacks allowed2.63.432

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards67.467.47688

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ JetsBrowns ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Jets

Browns

Record1-33-1

Conference12 in AFC6 in AFC

Pts for / game19.020.3

Pts against / game21.023.8

Division0-01-0

Starting QBGeno SmithDeshaun Watson

CLE v PIT	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	5-6	3-5	9-5
Happened	0-7	21-3	0-0	6-14

CLE v CAR	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-7	7-6	4-6	6-5
Happened	0-0	10-3	0-6	11-9

CLE v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-8	7-6	3-5	5-5
Happened	3-6	3-3	10-7	7-3

CLE v JAX	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-7	6-7	2-6	6-5
Happened	0-14	0-10	3-10	7-0

NYJ v CHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-6	8-5	4-6	6-9
Happened	0-7	3-6	3-7	6-3

A deserved win for the Jets, and better than we expected

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Browns

Jets

Public Opinion

CLE		PIT
380	Total yards	391
6.1	Yards per play	6.1
+0.10	Points added per play	+0.07
20	First downs	19
5	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	5
88	Penalty yards	50

CLE		CAR
276	Total yards	389
4.4	Yards per play	5.3
-0.02	Points added per play	-0.13
14	First downs	21
6	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	3
84	Penalty yards	63

CLE		TB
282	Total yards	319
5.1	Yards per play	5.1
+0.01	Points added per play	-0.15
13	First downs	16
2	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	3
50	Penalty yards	62

CLE		JAX
292	Total yards	371
6.0	Yards per play	6.6
-0.10	Points added per play	+0.32
14	First downs	21
4	Big plays	9
2	Turnovers	0
5	Sacks taken	1
75	Penalty yards	25

NYJ		CHI
178	Total yards	500
5.6	Yards per play	5.6
-0.14	Points added per play	+0.02
7	First downs	26
2	Big plays	11
0	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	1
76	Penalty yards	29

NYJ		TEN
367	Total yards	208
5.8	Yards per play	4.2
+0.12	Points added per play	-0.12
18	First downs	10
7	Big plays	2
0	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	3
48	Penalty yards	25

NYJ v DET	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	5-11	5-5	7-8
Happened	0-0	7-10	3-7	14-14