Bears at Packers - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

GBCHIWhat happenedWhat we expected (GB 21, CHI 24)What the play deserved

The Packers got 12 points ahead of the pace we expected in the third quarter and stayed there.

Where it moved

▲ GB better than we expected

+6Q17-0

-4Q27-7

+10Q39-0

+15Q48-0

▼ CHI better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 15 points better than our numbers for the Packers.

Every score

Q1 5:51TDJ.Love to C.Watson, 42 yards7-0
Q2 14:56TDM.Lloyd ran it in from 7 yards14-0
Q2 1:53TDD.Swift from the 114-7
Q3 13:10TDJ.Love to C.Watson, 53 yards, extra point missed20-7
Q3 1:58FGT.Smack from 35 yards23-7
Q4 14:55TDM.Lloyd ran it in from 4 yards, two-point try good31-7

⚖️What decided it

Why the Packers won, and why the Bears did not.

From the game

The Bears started Tyson Bagent at quarterback, not Caleb Williams
Won the turnovers, took it away five times and never gave it up
Out-gained them by 182 yards, 428 to 246

Key battles

0Turnovers5

358Passing yards165

7.3Yards per play3.6

428Total yards246

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Packers

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
J.Love to C.Watson, 53 yards
Q3 13:10 · GB 20-7 CHI
FUMBLE
D.Dennis-Sutton recovered a fumble at the GB 41
Q4 4:20 · GB 31-7 CHI
TOUCHDOWN
J.Love to C.Watson, 42 yards
Q1 5:51 · GB 7-0 CHI

Bad plays

MISSED FG
T.Smack missed from 43 yards
Q4 9:50 · GB 31-7 CHI
MISSED FG
T.Smack missed from 47 yards
Q4 5:25 · GB 31-7 CHI
PENALTY
Defensive holding on Z.Franklin, 5 yards
Q2 3:23 · GB 14-0 CHI

Bears

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
D.Swift from the 1
Q2 1:53 · GB 14-7 CHI
4TH DOWN
T.Bagent to C.Loveland for 7 yards on 4th & 4
Q3 1:16 · GB 23-7 CHI
BIG PLAY
C.Keenum to L.Burden for 23 yards
Q4 14:47 · GB 31-7 CHI

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the GB 41
Q4 4:20 · GB 31-7 CHI
INTERCEPTION
T.Bagent picked off by X.McKinney at the GB 45
Q3 0:41 · GB 23-7 CHI
INTERCEPTION
C.Keenum picked off by T.Hopper at the GB 19
Q4 12:58 · GB 31-7 CHI

📊The numbers

GB		CHI
428	Total yards	246
7.3	Yards per play	3.6
+0.20	Points added per play	-0.26
358	Passing yards	165
70	Rushing yards	81
18	First downs	17
33%	Third downs converted	29%
67%	Red zone trips scored	50%
8	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	5
2	Sacks taken	4
25	Penalty yards	20
30:24	Time with the ball	29:36

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Don't panic if Bears are behind at half-time, we expect them to come home over the top

PackersBears⭐Actual

6-3

Actual 7-0

Half

13-9

Actual 14-7

17-13

Actual 23-7

Final

21-24

Actual 31-7

Packers score 55% of their points before half-time
Bears score 57% of their points after half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Packers

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Bears

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

CHI

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored20.025.81723

Per playFairGoodFairFair

Yards a play5.55.85.15.6

Passing yards273247197268

Rushing yards66.218986232

Big plays6.07.8311

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed27.217.01412

Per playPoorFairFairGreat

Takeaways1.21.220

Sacks2.22.833

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.21.622

Sacks allowed1.81.401

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards81.842.66829

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ PackersBears ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Packers

Bears

Record2-23-1

Conference12 in NFC3 in NFC

Pts for / game18.328.0

Pts against / game26.316.3

Division0-10-1

Starting QBJordan LoveTyson Bagent

CHI v NYJ	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-4	5-8	6-4	9-6
Happened	7-0	6-3	7-3	3-6

CHI v PHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	4-10	3-5	11-6
Happened	7-0	3-7	10-0	7-0

CHI v MIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	8-8	7-4	10-7
Happened	3-3	0-3	0-0	0-3

CHI v CAR	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	5-7	4-4	10-6
Happened	14-7	17-17	14-7	14-6

GB v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	10-6	5-5	5-7
Happened	0-0	10-7	7-0	0-7

A deserved win for the Packers, and better than we expected

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Bears

Packers

Public Opinion

CHI		NYJ
500	Total yards	178
5.6	Yards per play	5.6
+0.02	Points added per play	-0.14
26	First downs	7
11	Big plays	2
2	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	3
29	Penalty yards	76

CHI		PHI
375	Total yards	260
5.4	Yards per play	5.5
+0.03	Points added per play	-0.23
20	First downs	13
4	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	3
0	Sacks taken	2
45	Penalty yards	61

CHI		MIN
326	Total yards	262
4.7	Yards per play	5.1
-0.13	Points added per play	-0.08
16	First downs	10
8	Big plays	4
2	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	3
58	Penalty yards	25

CHI		CAR
560	Total yards	486
8.0	Yards per play	7.8
+0.48	Points added per play	+0.26
24	First downs	22
9	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	2
57	Penalty yards	84

GB		ATL
329	Total yards	498
5.2	Yards per play	7.5
+0.01	Points added per play	+0.33
16	First downs	23
4	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	0
45	Penalty yards	83

GB		NYJ
208	Total yards	314
4.2	Yards per play	4.4
-0.22	Points added per play	-0.10
12	First downs	17
3	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	4
133	Penalty yards	156

GB		MIN
453	Total yards	258
6.8	Yards per play	4.2
-0.17	Points added per play	-0.02
19	First downs	14
9	Big plays	2
2	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	3
98	Penalty yards	15

GB v ATL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-2	8-7	8-3	5-7
Happened	7-7	0-10	0-7	7-11