Seahawks at Broncos - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

DENSEAWhat happenedWhat we expected (DEN 24, SEA 21)What the play deserved

The Broncos got 9 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter, then it evened out by full time. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ DEN better than we expected

-3Q10-3

+12Q214-0

+3Q30-0

-14Q40-11

▼ SEA better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 14 points worse than our numbers for the Broncos.

Every score

Q1 6:31FGJ.Myers from 55 yards0-3
Q2 12:52TDJ.Dobbins ran it in from 4 yards7-3
Q2 5:15TDR.Harvey from the 114-3
Q4 5:41TDG.Holani from the 1, two-point try good14-11
Q4 0:03FGJ.Myers from 34 yards14-14
OT 4:53FGW.Lutz from 53 yards17-14

⚖️What decided it

Why the Broncos won, and why the Seahawks did not.

From the game

Won the turnovers, took it away three times and never gave it up
Got to the quarterback five times
Out-gained by 185 yards, 168 to 353

Key battles

94Passing yards240

1Big plays6

168Total yards353

100%Red zone trips scored50%

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Broncos

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
K.Abrams-Draine picked off S.Darnold at the DEN 31
Q4 1:31 · DEN 14-11 SEA
FUMBLE
J.Strnad recovered a fumble at the DEN 34
Q2 2:34 · DEN 14-3 SEA
INTERCEPTION
J.McMillian picked off S.Darnold at the SEA 43
OT 7:17 · DEN 14-14 SEA

Bad plays

Nothing costly of their own making.

Seahawks

Good plays

BIG PLAY
S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba for 32 yards
Q4 2:42 · DEN 14-11 SEA
BIG PLAY
S.Darnold to R.Shaheed for 42 yards
Q3 10:52 · DEN 14-3 SEA
3RD DOWN
S.Darnold for 18 yards on 3rd & 10
Q4 7:06 · DEN 14-3 SEA

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
S.Darnold picked off by K.Abrams-Draine at the DEN 31
Q4 1:31 · DEN 14-11 SEA
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the DEN 34
Q2 2:34 · DEN 14-3 SEA
INTERCEPTION
S.Darnold picked off by J.McMillian at the SEA 43
OT 7:17 · DEN 14-14 SEA

📊The numbers

DEN		SEA
168	Total yards	353
2.9	Yards per play	4.3
-0.14	Points added per play	-0.09
94	Passing yards	240
74	Rushing yards	113
13	First downs	24
21%	Third downs converted	41%
100%	Red zone trips scored	50%
1	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	5
42	Penalty yards	75
29:29	Time with the ball	35:38

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

We expect this to stay close the whole way

BroncosSeahawksActual

3-3

Actual 0-3

Half

10-9

Actual 14-3

15-16

Actual 14-3

Final

24-21

Actual 14-14

Broncos score 57% of their points after half-time
Seahawks score 56% of their points after half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Broncos

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Seahawks

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

DEN

SEA

DEN

SEA

DEN

SEA

DEN

SEA

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored19.426.82329

Per playPoorPoorBadBad

Yards a play4.85.84.04.7

Passing yards188238123195

Rushing yards86.210610689

Big plays3.85.634

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed22.221.01732

Per playFairGreatGreatGood

Takeaways1.42.233

Sacks2.62.853

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.21.814

Sacks allowed1.22.215

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards45.474.64046

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ BroncosSeahawks ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Broncos

Seahawks

Record3-23-2

Conference9 in AFC4 in NFC

Pts for / game19.426.8

Pts against / game22.221.0

Division1-11-1

Starting QBBo NixDrew Lock

SEA v SF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-3	5-7	5-6	9-6
Happened	7-7	6-14	13-0	3-11

SEA v LAC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-3	5-5	5-4	11-3
Happened	7-3	13-3	10-7	0-10

SEA v WSH	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-1	5-7	9-3	9-4
Happened	0-7	10-10	7-7	14-9

SEA v ARI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-3	5-7	7-4	6-7
Happened	7-0	0-7	10-0	14-0

SEA v NE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	6-8	6-4	8-6
Happened	0-0	0-7	3-3	10-0

The Broncos edged a tight one

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form does not split them

Seahawks

Broncos

Public Opinion

SEA		SF
284	Total yards	283
4.7	Yards per play	5.1
-0.43	Points added per play	-0.12
13	First downs	14
4	Big plays	6
4	Turnovers	3
5	Sacks taken	3
46	Penalty yards	70

SEA		LAC
306	Total yards	336
5.3	Yards per play	4.9
-0.15	Points added per play	-0.09
14	First downs	15
7	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	4
3	Sacks taken	4
150	Penalty yards	130

SEA		WSH
437	Total yards	265
6.8	Yards per play	4.1
-0.05	Points added per play	-0.10
25	First downs	15
5	Big plays	3
3	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	2
53	Penalty yards	57

SEA		ARI
397	Total yards	165
5.9	Yards per play	3.5
+0.13	Points added per play	-0.33
21	First downs	8
6	Big plays	1
1	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	2
26	Penalty yards	48

SEA		NE
297	Total yards	287
6.2	Yards per play	4.3
+0.06	Points added per play	-0.11
13	First downs	16
6	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	3
98	Penalty yards	50

DEN		LAC
229	Total yards	276
4.0	Yards per play	4.4
-0.27	Points added per play	-0.30
12	First downs	12
3	Big plays	5
1	Turnovers	3
1	Sacks taken	5
40	Penalty yards	93

DEN		SF
296	Total yards	358
4.6	Yards per play	5.5
+0.09	Points added per play	+0.12
16	First downs	19
2	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	0
44	Penalty yards	5

DEN		LAR
264	Total yards	506
4.4	Yards per play	6.2
-0.01	Points added per play	+0.02
16	First downs	25
4	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	4
38	Penalty yards	91

DEN		KC
192	Total yards	404
4.1	Yards per play	6.0
-0.34	Points added per play	+0.09
8	First downs	18
1	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	2
52	Penalty yards	60