Cardinals at Rams - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

LARARIWhat happenedWhat we expected (LAR 29, ARI 20)What the play deserved

The Cardinals got 9 points ahead of the pace we expected in the third quarter and stayed there. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ LAR better than we expected

-1Q13-3

-3Q26-6

-5Q30-3

-2Q47-6

▼ ARI better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 5 points worse than our numbers for the Rams.

Every score

Q1 9:41FGB.Grupe from 44 yards3-0
Q1 5:37FGC.Ryland from 34 yards3-3
Q2 14:51FGC.Ryland from 30 yards3-6
Q2 8:23TDM.Stafford to B.Corum, 15 yards9-6
Q2 0:46FGC.Ryland from 22 yards9-9
Q3 6:25FGC.Ryland from 38 yards9-12
Q4 9:28FGC.Ryland from 27 yards9-15
Q4 0:47TDM.Stafford to C.Parkinson, 6 yards16-15
Q4 0:00FGC.Ryland from 43 yards16-18

⚖️What decided it

Why the Cardinals won, and why the Rams did not.

From the game

Got to the quarterback three times and gave up no sacks
Stalled near the line, no touchdowns from five trips inside the 20

Key battles

50%Red zone trips scored0%

3Sacks taken0

31Penalty yards51

25:08Time with the ball34:52

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Rams

Good plays

BIG PLAY
M.Stafford to P.Nacua for 43 yards
Q4 2:01 · LAR 9-15 ARI
INTERCEPTION
Q.Lake picked off J.Brissett at the ARI 32
Q1 12:23 · LAR 0-0 ARI
TOUCHDOWN
M.Stafford to C.Parkinson, 6 yards
Q4 0:47 · LAR 16-15 ARI

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the ARI 25
Q4 8:05 · LAR 9-15 ARI
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 1 at the ARI 27
Q3 2:44 · LAR 9-12 ARI
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 8 at the ARI 44
Q4 3:23 · LAR 9-15 ARI

Cardinals

Good plays

FUMBLE
D.Burke recovered a fumble at the ARI 25
Q4 8:05 · LAR 9-15 ARI
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 1 at the ARI 27
Q3 2:44 · LAR 9-12 ARI
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 8 at the ARI 44
Q4 3:23 · LAR 9-15 ARI

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Brissett picked off by Q.Lake at the ARI 32
Q1 12:23 · LAR 0-0 ARI

📊The numbers

LAR		ARI
286	Total yards	338
5.1	Yards per play	4.8
-0.09	Points added per play	-0.02
194	Passing yards	218
92	Rushing yards	120
19	First downs	22
40%	Third downs converted	33%
50%	Red zone trips scored	0%
3	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	0
31	Penalty yards	51
25:08	Time with the ball	34:52

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Rams should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

Rams⭐CardinalsActual

6-3

Actual 3-3

Half

14-9

Actual 9-9

21-15

Actual 9-12

Final

29-20

Actual 16-18

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Rams

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Cardinals

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

LAR

ARI

LAR

ARI

LAR

ARI

LAR

ARI

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored23.821.63421

Per playGoodPoorGreatFair

Yards a play6.24.65.95.0

Passing yards317223383299

Rushing yards11791.67756

Big plays6.82.874

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed24.032.43745

Per playGoodPoorBadBad

Takeaways1.01.420

Sacks1.62.213

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.61.001

Sacks allowed1.42.415

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards73.669.08445

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ RamsCardinals ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Rams

Cardinals

Record2-31-4

Conference10 in NFC16 in NFC

Pts for / game23.821.6

Pts against / game24.032.4

Division0-10-2

Starting QBMatthew StaffordJacoby Brissett

LAR v BUF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	8-9	4-5	8-7
Happened	0-6	7-7	7-6	20-15

LAR v PHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	5-7	4-5	8-6
Happened	3-3	7-17	0-0	14-0

LAR v DEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	6-7	7-5	5-5
Happened	7-0	9-0	0-16	10-14

LAR v NYG	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	10-7	5-4	7-6
Happened	7-0	7-3	7-3	7-0

ARI v DET	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	5-9	6-6	7-7
Happened	7-0	0-24	7-14	7-7

The Cardinals edged a tight one

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Rams

Cardinals

Public Opinion

LAR		BUF
460	Total yards	444
5.9	Yards per play	7.8
+0.23	Points added per play	+0.30
29	First downs	21
7	Big plays	13
0	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	1
84	Penalty yards	112

LAR		PHI
423	Total yards	197
5.5	Yards per play	3.4
+0.03	Points added per play	-0.29
23	First downs	10
4	Big plays	2
2	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	4
100	Penalty yards	57

LAR		DEN
506	Total yards	264
6.2	Yards per play	4.4
+0.02	Points added per play	-0.01
25	First downs	16
8	Big plays	4
2	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	1
91	Penalty yards	38

LAR		NYG
490	Total yards	183
8.2	Yards per play	3.3
+0.20	Points added per play	-0.43
23	First downs	10
11	Big plays	1
2	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	2
50	Penalty yards	20

LAR		SF
290	Total yards	379
5.1	Yards per play	5.9
-0.16	Points added per play	+0.18
13	First downs	22
4	Big plays	6
2	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	0
43	Penalty yards	21

ARI		NYG
289	Total yards	337
4.6	Yards per play	5.5
-0.25	Points added per play	-0.08
17	First downs	14
4	Big plays	5
3	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	4
55	Penalty yards	44

ARI		SF
373	Total yards	437
4.6	Yards per play	8.7
+0.15	Points added per play	+0.45
24	First downs	21
0	Big plays	10
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	0
86	Penalty yards	69

ARI		SEA
165	Total yards	397
3.5	Yards per play	5.9
-0.33	Points added per play	+0.13
8	First downs	21
1	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	1
48	Penalty yards	26

ARI		LAC
393	Total yards	290
5.5	Yards per play	5.7
+0.12	Points added per play	-0.24
22	First downs	15
5	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	3
111	Penalty yards	64