Tottenham
0-2-3
Aston Villa
✓1-1-3
Tottenham - too close to call
Aston Villa are missing Amadou Onana and João Gomes.
Aston Villa have lost 3 of their last 5.
Kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 games.
Aston Villa have scored just 4 in 5 games, among the lowest in the league.
How the result shapes up
Relative likelihood of each result - home win, draw, away win. Wider = more likely. Never shown as a price.
Likely scorelines
Most likely
1-1
Draw
13%
1-0
Tottenham
9%
2-1
Tottenham
9%
The exact scores our numbers rate most likely, across all three results, with the chance of each. Note how small even the leader is - a match can land on dozens of scores, so the top one is usually around one in eight. That is also why the leader here can be a draw score even when we are on one side to win, because a draw is one narrow cluster while a win is spread over several scores. Treat these as the shape of the game rather than a promise.
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Both sides are winless in four and playing better than their league position suggests, each hampered by poor finishing when chances have come. Tottenham hold the edge at home and look tighter defensively, which tips this one their way, but Villa's quality keeps it razor-thin. The key thing to watch is the second half, where both teams have leaked goals in recent outings - whichever side can tighten up after the break will likely settle it.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the expected goal supremacy - built from team ratings, season scoring rates, home/away splits, recent form, rest days and home advantage. The final call is also cross-checked against market expectations where available.
Not available for this game: market odds, home/away splits.
Momentum Meter
50 = league averageTottenham
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Unlucky in front of goal - scoring well below what their chances deserve.
Kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 games.
Playing better than their results show - the table undersells them.
Winless in their last 5 games.
Draw a lot - 2 of their 5 games this season have finished level.
Struggle to create - one of the least dangerous attacks in the league for chances created.
Aston Villa
Unlucky in front of goal - scoring well below what their chances deserve.
Playing better than their results show - the table undersells them.
Struggle to create - one of the least dangerous attacks in the league for chances created.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public match data, cross-checked against market expectations where available - for information only, not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.