Newcastle
✓2-2-1
Hull City
2-2-1
Newcastle - too close to call
Our ratings have them 11th in the league, Hull City 18th.
Hull City are without Eliot Matazo (severe knee injury).
Finished 12th last season, Hull City are newly promoted.
Home advantage - in front of their own crowd.
How the result shapes up
Relative likelihood of each result - home win, draw, away win. Wider = more likely. Never shown as a price.
Likely scorelines
Most likely
1-1
Draw
12%
2-1
Newcastle
9%
1-0
Newcastle
9%
The exact scores our numbers rate most likely, across all three results, with the chance of each. Note how small even the leader is - a match can land on dozens of scores, so the top one is usually around one in eight. That is also why the leader here can be a draw score even when we are on one side to win, because a draw is one narrow cluster while a win is spread over several scores. Treat these as the shape of the game rather than a promise.
💬 FormPicks Commentary
Newcastle are the better side on paper and have home advantage, which tips this in their favour, but Hull City arrive here sharp - they've started well in recent games and have tightened up defensively with just 2 goals conceded in their last 4. Newcastle's problem is they're slow starters who've been behind at half-time twice in their last four outings, and this looks like a game where both teams will cancel each other out. Back a 1-1 draw as the likeliest outcome, with the key thing to watch Hull's early intent in the first half - if they get ahead quickly, Newcastle's sluggish habits could leave them chasing the game.
What's driving the pick
Bars show how far each factor swings the expected goal supremacy - built from team ratings, season scoring rates, home/away splits, recent form, rest days and home advantage. The final call is also cross-checked against market expectations where available.
Not available for this game: market odds, home/away splits.
Momentum Meter
50 = league averageNewcastle
Hull City
Newcastle
Draw a lot - 2 of their 5 games this season have finished level.
Give away more good chances than most sides in the league.
Hull City
Kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 games.
Tight at the back - only 4 goals conceded in 5 games.
Draw a lot - 2 of their 5 games this season have finished level.
Season form guide
Predictions are statistical estimates built from public match data, cross-checked against market expectations where available - for information only, not betting advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.