Bengals at Falcons - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

ATLCINWhat happenedWhat we expected (ATL 21, CIN 27)What the play deserved

The Bengals got 13 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter and stayed there.

Where it moved

▲ ATL better than we expected

+2Q110-7

-15Q20-17

+5Q37-7

-3Q40-3

▼ CIN better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 15 points worse than our numbers for the Falcons.

Every score

Q1 11:12TDM.Penix to C.Woerner, 1 yard7-0
Q1 8:49TDJ.Burrow to J.Chase, 47 yards7-7
Q1 2:56FGN.Folk from 31 yards10-7
Q2 12:56TDJ.Burrow from the 110-14
Q2 4:03TDJ.Burrow to T.Higgins, 4 yards10-21
Q2 0:24FGE.McPherson from 57 yards10-24
Q3 6:18TDB.Robinson from the 117-24
Q3 2:05TDJ.Burrow to T.Higgins, 8 yards17-31
Q4 4:36FGE.McPherson from 43 yards17-34

⚖️What decided it

Why the Bengals won, and why the Falcons did not.

From the game

The score ran about 10 points kinder than the play, special teams and short fields the usual reasons

Key battles

88Penalty yards43

0Sacks taken2

162Passing yards265

50%Red zone trips scored75%

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Falcons

Good plays

3RD DOWN
M.Penix to B.Robinson for 28 yards on 3rd & 6
Q3 10:49 · ATL 10-24 CIN
3RD DOWN
M.Penix for 23 yards on 3rd & 5
Q1 7:14 · ATL 7-7 CIN
3RD DOWN
M.Penix to B.Robinson for 15 yards on 3rd & 13
Q2 2:16 · ATL 10-21 CIN

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
M.Penix picked off by B.Carter at the ATL 37
Q4 4:06 · ATL 17-34 CIN
MISSED FG
N.Folk missed from 38 yards
Q4 11:31 · ATL 17-31 CIN

Bengals

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
J.Burrow to J.Chase, 47 yards
Q1 8:49 · ATL 7-7 CIN
INTERCEPTION
B.Carter picked off M.Penix at the ATL 37
Q4 4:06 · ATL 17-34 CIN
BIG PLAY
J.Burrow to D.Meyers for 42 yards
Q2 0:57 · ATL 10-21 CIN

Bad plays

PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on D.Turner, 16 yards
Q3 7:08 · ATL 10-24 CIN

📊The numbers

ATL		CIN
319	Total yards	388
5.8	Yards per play	7.1
+0.11	Points added per play	+0.26
162	Passing yards	265
157	Rushing yards	123
20	First downs	24
50%	Third downs converted	60%
50%	Red zone trips scored	75%
7	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	2
88	Penalty yards	43
30:04	Time with the ball	29:56

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Bengals do their best work late, expect the gap to open up in the fourth quarter

FalconsBengals⭐Actual

7-6

Actual 10-7

Half

12-13

Actual 10-24

14-20

Actual 17-31

Final

21-27

Actual 17-34

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Falcons

Season8 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Bengals

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

ATL

CIN

ATL

CIN

ATL

CIN

ATL

CIN

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored24.030.6043

Per playPoorGreatBadGreat

Yards a play5.76.54.37.7

Passing yards212331125462

Rushing yards11274.29975

Big plays5.24.837

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed24.225.01636

Per playFairPoorGreatBad

Takeaways1.41.402

Sacks2.63.012

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.61.844

Sacks allowed1.81.403

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards46.453.82567

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ FalconsBengals ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Falcons

Bengals

Record3-55-2

Conference12 in NFC5 in AFC

Pts for / game21.429.4

Pts against / game23.622.6

Division1-21-1

Starting QBMichael Penix Jr.Joe Burrow

CIN v TEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	12-3	7-2	6-5
Happened	0-13	14-0	9-8	13-15

CIN v BAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	7-8	6-3	7-7
Happened	0-7	0-6	14-0	21-0

CIN v MIA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	6-6	9-3	4-5
Happened	7-7	14-0	7-3	3-14

CIN v JAX	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	7-9	5-5	6-5
Happened	0-3	3-10	7-3	7-6

CIN v PIT	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	6-8	4-4	7-7
Happened	7-14	10-3	3-7	7-6

A deserved win for the Bengals

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Bengals

Falcons

Public Opinion

CIN		TEN
537	Total yards	462
7.7	Yards per play	6.6
+0.15	Points added per play	+0.21
27	First downs	21
7	Big plays	8
4	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	2
67	Penalty yards	73

CIN		BAL
365	Total yards	381
7.2	Yards per play	5.9
+0.33	Points added per play	-0.09
19	First downs	16
4	Big plays	2
0	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	4
15	Penalty yards	57

CIN		MIA
307	Total yards	354
4.9	Yards per play	5.5
+0.20	Points added per play	-0.04
21	First downs	21
4	Big plays	12
1	Turnovers	3
0	Sacks taken	3
39	Penalty yards	30

CIN		JAX
451	Total yards	338
6.4	Yards per play	6.3
+0.05	Points added per play	+0.19
23	First downs	16
3	Big plays	6
2	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	4
108	Penalty yards	125

CIN		PIT
365	Total yards	430
6.5	Yards per play	7.3
+0.28	Points added per play	+0.16
19	First downs	20
6	Big plays	9
2	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	2
40	Penalty yards	37

ATL		TB
224	Total yards	324
4.3	Yards per play	5.4
-0.52	Points added per play	-0.20
7	First downs	15
3	Big plays	10
4	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	1
25	Penalty yards	40

ATL		CHI
288	Total yards	403
5.8	Yards per play	5.5
-0.27	Points added per play	-0.03
10	First downs	19
6	Big plays	5
3	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	4
31	Penalty yards	133

ATL		BAL
384	Total yards	409
6.0	Yards per play	5.8
-0.02	Points added per play	+0.14
17	First downs	23
6	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	4
67	Penalty yards	40

ATL		NO
428	Total yards	336
7.6	Yards per play	4.9
+0.41	Points added per play	-0.07
22	First downs	19
9	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	2
70	Penalty yards	49

ATL v SF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-7	5-7	3-6	6-7
Happened	3-7	9-7	7-0	10-6

ATL v CHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-4	9-5	3-5	6-9
Happened	0-14	7-7	0-7	16-3