Cowboys at Colts - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

INDDALWhat happenedWhat we expected (IND 25, DAL 27)What the play deserved

The Cowboys got 10 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ IND better than we expected

+5Q17-3

-15Q20-14

+6Q310-3

+2Q46-7

▼ DAL better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 15 points worse than our numbers for the Colts.

Every score

Q1 11:45FGB.Aubrey from 45 yards0-3
Q1 6:13TDS.McGowan ran it in from 2 yards7-3
Q2 14:08TDD.Prescott to J.Ferguson, 10 yards7-10
Q2 0:21TDD.Prescott to C.Lamb, 44 yards7-17
Q3 6:12FGS.Shrader from 47 yards10-17
Q3 2:10FGB.Aubrey from 28 yards10-20
Q3 1:17TDD.Jones to A.Dulin, 55 yards17-20
Q4 5:56FGS.Shrader from 59 yards20-20
Q4 1:37FGS.Shrader from 50 yards23-20
Q4 1:08TDJ.Williams from the 123-27

⚖️What decided it

Why the Cowboys won, and why the Colts did not.

From the game

Out-gained them by 237 yards, 508 to 271
Won the ground game, 179 rushing yards to 105
Flagged 14 times for 153 yards
The score ran about 16 points harsher than the play, special teams and short fields the usual reasons

Key battles

2Big plays13

67Penalty yards153

166Passing yards329

271Total yards508

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Colts

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
D.Jones to A.Dulin, 55 yards
Q3 1:17 · IND 17-20 DAL
FUMBLE
C.Curry recovered a fumble at the DAL 19
Q1 8:59 · IND 0-3 DAL
BIG PLAY
S.McGowan for 36 yards
Q4 7:43 · IND 17-20 DAL

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the DAL 15
Q4 9:55 · IND 17-20 DAL

Cowboys

Good plays

FUMBLE
S.James recovered a fumble at the DAL 15
Q4 9:55 · IND 17-20 DAL
TOUCHDOWN
D.Prescott to C.Lamb, 44 yards
Q2 0:21 · IND 7-17 DAL
BIG PLAY
D.Prescott to R.Flournoy for 46 yards
Q4 1:37 · IND 23-20 DAL

Bad plays

MISSED FG
B.Aubrey missed from 50 yards
Q4 3:34 · IND 20-20 DAL
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the DAL 19
Q1 8:59 · IND 0-3 DAL
PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on D.Bland, 40 yards
Q4 10:48 · IND 17-20 DAL

📊The numbers

IND		DAL
271	Total yards	508
4.6	Yards per play	7.2
-0.21	Points added per play	+0.18
166	Passing yards	329
105	Rushing yards	179
15	First downs	22
23%	Third downs converted	31%
50%	Red zone trips scored	67%
2	Big plays	13
2	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	3
67	Penalty yards	153
24:17	Time with the ball	35:43

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

We expect this to stay close the whole way

ColtsCowboysActual

6-7

Actual 7-3

Half

13-13

Actual 7-17

19-18

Actual 17-20

Final

25-27

Actual 23-27

Colts score 55% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Colts

Season8 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Cowboys

Season8 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

IND

DAL

IND

DAL

IND

DAL

IND

DAL

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored17.826.2730

Per playBadGoodBadPoor

Yards a play4.75.44.34.0

Passing yards188263152195

Rushing yards12494.010993

Big plays5.24.842

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed26.226.24233

Per playFairPoorBadPoor

Takeaways0.60.812

Sacks1.82.635

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.81.030

Sacks allowed3.41.644

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards45.060.85445

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ ColtsCowboys ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Colts

Cowboys

Record2-63-5

Conference13 in AFC11 in NFC

Pts for / game20.127.4

Pts against / game27.826.6

Division1-22-1

Starting QBDaniel JonesDak Prescott

DAL v ARI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-5	8-6	8-6	7-5
Happened	7-0	7-3	3-7	13-20

DAL v PHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-3	5-10	4-4	10-5
Happened	10-7	10-7	8-7	10-0

DAL v GB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-5	7-9	4-7	8-6
Happened	0-7	0-10	7-3	6-3

DAL v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-6	9-5	6-5	8-5
Happened	7-0	3-7	0-17	6-0

DAL v HOU	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	8-7	6-3	6-8
Happened	3-10	3-6	14-7	14-7

A deserved win for the Cowboys

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form does not split them

Cowboys

Colts

Public Opinion

DAL		ARI
288	Total yards	509
4.0	Yards per play	6.5
-0.05	Points added per play	+0.07
17	First downs	21
2	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	2
4	Sacks taken	5
45	Penalty yards	77

DAL		PHI
416	Total yards	332
6.4	Yards per play	5.4
+0.32	Points added per play	-0.01
23	First downs	19
9	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	2
47	Penalty yards	45

DAL		GB
306	Total yards	333
4.4	Yards per play	4.8
-0.13	Points added per play	+0.03
20	First downs	17
1	Big plays	6
2	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	3
108	Penalty yards	96

DAL		HOU
410	Total yards	409
5.6	Yards per play	7.9
+0.14	Points added per play	+0.23
24	First downs	16
6	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
47	Penalty yards	90

IND		JAX
261	Total yards	401
4.3	Yards per play	7.6
-0.47	Points added per play	+0.20
15	First downs	16
4	Big plays	7
3	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	3
54	Penalty yards	65

IND		MIN
262	Total yards	286
4.4	Yards per play	5.1
-0.11	Points added per play	-0.12
15	First downs	15
3	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	3
46	Penalty yards	24

IND		PIT
333	Total yards	362
4.8	Yards per play	6.7
+0.00	Points added per play	+0.21
19	First downs	15
7	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	1
59	Penalty yards	50

IND		WSH
271	Total yards	332
4.1	Yards per play	5.4
-0.08	Points added per play	-0.25
16	First downs	11
5	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	2
5	Penalty yards	84

IND v JAX	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	7-10	4-6	4-8
Happened	0-7	0-21	7-14	0-0

IND v TEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	12-4	5-3	5-6
Happened	0-0	13-0	0-6	7-20