Texans at Titans - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

TENHOUWhat happenedWhat we expected (TEN 19, HOU 24)What the play deserved

The Texans got 11 points ahead of the pace we expected in the third quarter and stayed there. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ TEN better than we expected

+1Q13-3

-5Q20-9

-7Q30-7

-7Q40-7

▼ HOU better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 7 points worse than our numbers for the Titans.

Every score

Q1 10:39FGJ.Slye from 30 yards3-0
Q1 2:22FGK.Fairbairn from 45 yards3-3
Q2 13:33FGK.Fairbairn from 35 yards3-6
Q2 6:56FGK.Fairbairn from 26 yards3-9
Q2 1:15FGK.Fairbairn from 53 yards3-12
Q3 6:37TDC.Stroud ran it in from 2 yards3-19
Q4 14:09TDC.Stroud to J.Noel, 9 yards3-26

⚖️What decided it

Why the Texans won, and why the Titans did not.

From the game

Won the turnovers, took it away two times and never gave it up
Out-gained them by 142 yards, 329 to 187
Flagged 11 times for 95 yards

Key battles

0%Red zone trips scored50%

130Passing yards250

187Total yards329

2Turnovers0

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Titans

Good plays

GAIN
C.Ward to E.Ayomanor for 17 yards
Q4 2:00 · TEN 3-26 HOU
3RD DOWN
C.Ward to T.Spears for 12 yards on 3rd & 6
Q2 0:53 · TEN 3-12 HOU
GAIN
C.Ward to W.Robinson for 17 yards
Q4 12:47 · TEN 3-26 HOU

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
C.Ward picked off by J.Hansen at the TEN 41
Q2 12:17 · TEN 3-6 HOU
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the TEN 35
Q1 1:49 · TEN 3-3 HOU
SACK
C.Ward sacked on 4th & 20
Q4 8:57 · TEN 3-26 HOU

Texans

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Hansen picked off C.Ward at the TEN 41
Q2 12:17 · TEN 3-6 HOU
FUMBLE
J.Pitre recovered a fumble at the TEN 35
Q1 1:49 · TEN 3-3 HOU
SACK
Sacked C.Ward on 4th & 20
Q4 8:57 · TEN 3-26 HOU

Bad plays

SACK
C.Stroud sacked on 3rd & 8
Q4 6:43 · TEN 3-26 HOU

📊The numbers

TEN		HOU
187	Total yards	329
3.2	Yards per play	5.2
-0.39	Points added per play	+0.09
130	Passing yards	250
57	Rushing yards	79
15	First downs	20
36%	Third downs converted	50%
0%	Red zone trips scored	50%
2	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	2
83	Penalty yards	95
25:21	Time with the ball	34:39

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Texans should do their damage early, a fast start is the key to this one

TitansTexans⭐Actual

3-6

Actual 3-3

Half

9-14

Actual 3-12

13-18

Actual 3-19

Final

19-24

Actual 3-26

Titans finish strong, 33% of their points come in the fourth quarter

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Titans

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Texans

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

TEN

HOU

TEN

HOU

TEN

HOU

TEN

HOU

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored12.420.01830

Per playBadPoorPoorGreat

Yards a play4.85.45.37.9

Passing yards170271222347

Rushing yards86.672.88562

Big plays4.05.858

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed24.827.42434

Per playPoorFairBadBad

Takeaways0.41.200

Sacks2.03.823

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.21.420

Sacks allowed1.43.012

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards46.465.03290

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ TitansTexans ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Titans

Texans

Record0-40-4

Conference14 in AFC13 in AFC

Pts for / game13.821.0

Pts against / game20.827.3

Division0-00-1

Starting QBCam WardC.J. Stroud

HOU v DAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-4	7-8	3-6	8-6
Happened	10-3	6-3	7-14	7-14

HOU v IND	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-4	8-8	3-6	8-5
Happened	0-3	7-10	0-0	10-6

HOU v CIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	9-9	4-6	9-5
Happened	0-0	3-7	3-10	0-3

HOU v BUF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	9-7	3-6	7-7
Happened	7-3	14-21	0-3	10-9

TEN v BAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-5	4-10	4-6	6-6
Happened	7-7	0-17	3-0	8-0

A deserved win for the Texans

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form supports the Texans

Texans

Titans

Public Opinion

HOU		DAL
409	Total yards	410
7.9	Yards per play	5.6
+0.23	Points added per play	+0.14
16	First downs	24
8	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	3
90	Penalty yards	47

HOU		IND
237	Total yards	324
4.6	Yards per play	4.6
-0.09	Points added per play	-0.11
15	First downs	19
2	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	3
3	Sacks taken	4
14	Penalty yards	41

HOU		CIN
413	Total yards	292
5.3	Yards per play	4.9
-0.25	Points added per play	-0.09
18	First downs	12
8	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	5
83	Penalty yards	78

HOU		BUF
398	Total yards	420
5.5	Yards per play	8.1
+0.07	Points added per play	+0.23
21	First downs	18
8	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
106	Penalty yards	85

TEN		BAL
307	Total yards	397
5.3	Yards per play	6.5
-0.08	Points added per play	+0.14
15	First downs	19
5	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	2
32	Penalty yards	131

TEN		NYG
262	Total yards	256
4.6	Yards per play	4.4
-0.15	Points added per play	-0.11
15	First downs	15
3	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	3
63	Penalty yards	88

TEN		PHI
305	Total yards	353
6.0	Yards per play	4.9
+0.08	Points added per play	+0.04
14	First downs	21
7	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	3
45	Penalty yards	35

TEN		NYJ
208	Total yards	367
4.2	Yards per play	5.8
-0.12	Points added per play	+0.12
10	First downs	18
2	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	0
25	Penalty yards	48