Steelers at Saints - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

NOPITWhat happenedWhat we expected (NO 21, PIT 26)What the play deserved

The Steelers stayed within a score of the pace we expected all game. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ NO better than we expected

+1Q10-3

0Q210-10

-3Q30-3

+1Q40-0

▼ PIT better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 3 points worse than our numbers for the Saints.

Every score

Q1 10:51FGC.Boswell from 28 yards0-3
Q2 10:17FGD.Carlson from 38 yards3-3
Q2 6:45TDA.Rodgers to D.Washington, 4 yards3-10
Q2 1:45TDT.Shough to D.Vele, 1 yard10-10
Q2 0:00FGC.Boswell from 47 yards10-13
Q3 0:14FGC.Boswell from 39 yards10-16

⚖️What decided it

Why the Steelers won, and why the Saints did not.

From the game

Won the ground game, 148 rushing yards to 18
Stalled near the line, one touchdown from three trips inside the 20
Stalled near the line, one touchdown from four trips inside the 20

Key battles

18Rushing yards148

2Big plays7

39Penalty yards57

263Passing yards195

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Saints

Good plays

BIG PLAY
T.Shough to B.Brown for 49 yards
Q2 13:17 · NO 0-3 PIT
3RD DOWN
T.Shough to D.Vele for 24 yards on 3rd & 11
Q3 12:53 · NO 10-13 PIT
TOUCHDOWN
T.Shough to D.Vele, 1 yard
Q2 1:45 · NO 10-10 PIT

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
T.Shough picked off by P.Wilson at the PIT 29
Q3 7:43 · NO 10-13 PIT
MISSED FG
D.Carlson missed from 52 yards
Q4 9:32 · NO 10-16 PIT
PENALTY
Defensive offside on I.Stalbird, 5 yards
Q4 1:04 · NO 10-16 PIT

Steelers

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
P.Wilson picked off T.Shough at the PIT 29
Q3 7:43 · NO 10-13 PIT
3RD DOWN
A.Rodgers to D.Metcalf for 51 yards on 3rd & 14
Q2 8:34 · NO 3-3 PIT
3RD DOWN
A.Rodgers to B.Smith for 20 yards on 3rd & 6
Q3 2:31 · NO 10-13 PIT

Bad plays

SACK
A.Rodgers sacked on 3rd & 10
Q3 0:50 · NO 10-13 PIT

📊The numbers

NO		PIT
281	Total yards	343
4.9	Yards per play	5.4
+0.06	Points added per play	+0.05
263	Passing yards	195
18	Rushing yards	148
19	First downs	20
50%	Third downs converted	63%
33%	Red zone trips scored	25%
2	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	3
39	Penalty yards	57
27:57	Time with the ball	32:03

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Steelers should be in front early, expect Saints to come at them late

SaintsSteelers⭐Actual

3-6

Actual 0-3

Half

9-13

Actual 10-13

12-17

Actual 10-16

Final

21-26

Actual 10-16

Saints score 63% of their points after half-time
Steelers finish strong, 38% of their points come in the fourth quarter

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Saints

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Steelers

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

PIT

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored24.423.43426

Per playPoorFairFairBad

Yards a play4.75.84.74.5

Passing yards207253144253

Rushing yards98.610717589

Big plays4.05.473

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed29.423.02719

Per playPoorFairGoodGreat

Takeaways1.61.642

Sacks2.82.455

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.81.211

Sacks allowed1.63.405

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards42.651.65262

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ SaintsSteelers ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Saints

Steelers

Record2-44-2

Conference12 in NFC6 in AFC

Pts for / game25.322.8

Pts against / game29.721.3

Division0-11-1

Starting QBTyler ShoughAaron Rodgers

PIT v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	8-5	4-3	8-6
Happened	0-3	3-10	0-3	16-3

PIT v IND	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-4	7-8	4-3	8-7
Happened	7-6	10-7	7-6	10-3

PIT v CLE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	6-5	5-3	5-9
Happened	7-0	3-21	0-0	14-6

PIT v CIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	8-6	4-4	7-7
Happened	14-7	3-10	7-3	6-7

PIT v NE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	2-5	6-6	4-3	7-8
Happened	0-7	3-3	0-3	0-7

The Steelers edged a tight one

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Steelers

Saints

Public Opinion

PIT		TB
342	Total yards	266
4.5	Yards per play	3.6
-0.19	Points added per play	-0.30
20	First downs	16
3	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	2
5	Sacks taken	5
62	Penalty yards	38

PIT		IND
362	Total yards	333
6.7	Yards per play	4.8
+0.21	Points added per play	+0.00
15	First downs	19
5	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	1
50	Penalty yards	59

PIT		CLE
391	Total yards	380
6.1	Yards per play	6.1
+0.07	Points added per play	+0.10
19	First downs	20
7	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	2
5	Sacks taken	2
50	Penalty yards	88

PIT		CIN
430	Total yards	365
7.3	Yards per play	6.5
+0.16	Points added per play	+0.28
20	First downs	19
9	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	1
37	Penalty yards	40

PIT		NE
278	Total yards	344
4.1	Yards per play	6.5
-0.36	Points added per play	+0.01
14	First downs	13
3	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	2
4	Sacks taken	3
59	Penalty yards	31

NO		NYG
319	Total yards	479
4.7	Yards per play	6.7
-0.03	Points added per play	-0.08
16	First downs	21
7	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	4
0	Sacks taken	5
52	Penalty yards	73

NO		MIN
151	Total yards	382
3.5	Yards per play	5.6
-0.35	Points added per play	+0.02
9	First downs	18
0	Big plays	7
3	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	2
41	Penalty yards	30

NO		ATL
336	Total yards	428
4.9	Yards per play	7.6
-0.07	Points added per play	+0.41
19	First downs	22
3	Big plays	9
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	1
49	Penalty yards	70

NO		LV
403	Total yards	361
5.6	Yards per play	5.7
-0.02	Points added per play	+0.07
26	First downs	20
4	Big plays	4
4	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	3
36	Penalty yards	19

NO		BAL
317	Total yards	343
5.0	Yards per play	6.1
+0.15	Points added per play	+0.11
17	First downs	19
6	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	3
35	Penalty yards	34

NO v ATL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	2-5	5-8	8-4	8-5
Happened	0-14	7-10	3-7	14-14

NO v LV	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-5	6-7	7-4	8-5
Happened	6-3	7-13	14-6	0-13