Steelers at Buccaneers - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

TBPITWhat happenedWhat we expected (TB 20, PIT 25)What the play deserved

The Steelers fell 13 points behind the pace we expected in the second quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ TB better than we expected

+3Q13-0

+10Q210-3

+4Q33-0

-12Q43-16

▼ PIT better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 12 points worse than our numbers for the Buccaneers.

Every score

Q1 7:51FGC.McLaughlin from 43 yards3-0
Q2 14:52TDJ.Daniels to E.Egbuka, 2 yards10-0
Q2 4:08FGC.McLaughlin from 47 yards13-0
Q2 0:00FGC.Boswell from 52 yards13-3
Q3 5:02FGC.McLaughlin from 33 yards16-3
Q4 13:48TDA.Rodgers to D.Washington, 5 yards16-10
Q4 8:08FGC.Boswell from 39 yards16-13
Q4 1:55FGC.Boswell from 58 yards16-16
Q4 1:21FGC.Boswell from 20 yards16-19
Q4 0:08FGC.McLaughlin from 53 yards19-19
OT 3:15TDA.Rodgers to G.Bernard, 6 yards19-26

⚖️What decided it

Why the Steelers won, and why the Buccaneers did not.

From the game

The Buccaneers started Jalon Daniels at quarterback, not Baker Mayfield
Got to the quarterback five times
Sacked five times

Key battles

122Passing yards211

38Penalty yards62

6Big plays3

224Total yards300

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Buccaneers

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
A.Robinson picked off A.Rodgers at the PIT 39
Q1 10:51 · TB 0-0 PIT
4TH DOWN
J.Daniels for 10 yards on 4th & 9
OT 2:18 · TB 19-26 PIT
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 3 at the TB 42
Q1 3:46 · TB 3-0 PIT

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Daniels picked off by J.Dean at the TB 3
Q4 1:46 · TB 16-16 PIT
SACK
J.Daniels sacked on 4th & 8
OT 1:06 · TB 19-26 PIT
INTERCEPTION
J.Daniels picked off by D.Everette at the TB 45
Q4 13:14 · TB 16-10 PIT

Steelers

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Dean picked off J.Daniels at the TB 3
Q4 1:46 · TB 16-16 PIT
SACK
Sacked J.Daniels on 4th & 8
OT 1:06 · TB 19-26 PIT
3RD DOWN
A.Rodgers to D.Metcalf for 16 yards on 3rd & 13
OT 9:11 · TB 19-19 PIT

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
A.Rodgers picked off by A.Robinson at the PIT 39
Q1 10:51 · TB 0-0 PIT
MISSED FG
C.Boswell missed from 48 yards
Q2 7:15 · TB 10-0 PIT
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 3 at the TB 42
Q1 3:46 · TB 3-0 PIT

📊The numbers

TB		PIT
224	Total yards	300
3.1	Yards per play	3.9
-0.30	Points added per play	-0.19
122	Passing yards	211
102	Rushing yards	89
17	First downs	22
32%	Third downs converted	33%
50%	Red zone trips scored	50%
6	Big plays	3
2	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	5
38	Penalty yards	62
31:24	Time with the ball	38:36

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Steelers should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

BuccaneersSteelers⭐Actual

6-6

Actual 3-0

Half

10-13

Actual 13-3

13-17

Actual 16-3

Final

20-25

Actual 19-19

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Buccaneers

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Steelers

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

PIT

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored20.022.22434

Per playPoorFairGreatGreat

Yards a play5.35.76.66.7

Passing yards190247189235

Rushing yards133101241127

Big plays4.85.675

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed22.421.81622

Per playGoodFairGoodFair

Takeaways1.41.630

Sacks1.22.201

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.81.200

Sacks allowed3.42.811

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards58.249.69250

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ BuccaneersSteelers ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Buccaneers

Steelers

Record1-43-2

Conference14 in NFC8 in AFC

Pts for / game20.022.2

Pts against / game22.421.8

Division0-01-1

Starting QBJalon DanielsAaron Rodgers

PIT v IND	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-4	7-8	4-3	8-7
Happened	7-6	10-7	7-6	10-3

PIT v CLE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	6-5	5-3	5-9
Happened	7-0	3-21	0-0	14-6

PIT v CIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	8-6	4-4	7-7
Happened	14-7	3-10	7-3	6-7

PIT v NE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	2-5	6-6	4-3	7-8
Happened	0-7	3-3	0-3	0-7

PIT v ATL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	6-6	7-2	9-8
Happened	3-7	10-0	0-3	7-3

A deserved win for the Steelers

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Steelers

Buccaneers

Public Opinion

PIT		IND
362	Total yards	333
6.7	Yards per play	4.8
+0.21	Points added per play	+0.00
15	First downs	19
5	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	1
50	Penalty yards	59

PIT		CLE
391	Total yards	380
6.1	Yards per play	6.1
+0.07	Points added per play	+0.10
19	First downs	20
7	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	2
5	Sacks taken	2
50	Penalty yards	88

PIT		CIN
430	Total yards	365
7.3	Yards per play	6.5
+0.16	Points added per play	+0.28
20	First downs	19
9	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	1
37	Penalty yards	40

PIT		NE
278	Total yards	344
4.1	Yards per play	6.5
-0.36	Points added per play	+0.01
14	First downs	13
3	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	2
4	Sacks taken	3
59	Penalty yards	31

PIT		ATL
279	Total yards	263
4.4	Yards per play	4.6
-0.24	Points added per play	-0.32
13	First downs	13
4	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	4
52	Penalty yards	96

TB		GB
289	Total yards	283
4.7	Yards per play	5.1
-0.04	Points added per play	+0.02
18	First downs	13
4	Big plays	3
2	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	0
17	Penalty yards	68

TB		MIN
274	Total yards	246
4.3	Yards per play	4.5
-0.25	Points added per play	-0.26
9	First downs	9
3	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	1
6	Sacks taken	3
81	Penalty yards	95

TB		CLE
319	Total yards	282
5.1	Yards per play	5.1
-0.15	Points added per play	+0.01
16	First downs	13
7	Big plays	2
1	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
62	Penalty yards	50

TB		CIN
305	Total yards	360
5.9	Yards per play	5.7
-0.13	Points added per play	-0.05
17	First downs	24
3	Big plays	7
4	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	1
39	Penalty yards	47