Chiefs at Seahawks - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

SEAKCWhat happenedWhat we expected (SEA 21, KC 24)What the play deserved

The Seahawks got 14 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter and stayed there. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ SEA better than we expected

-1Q10-0

+14Q210-0

0Q33-3

+7Q47-0

▼ KC better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 14 points better than our numbers for the Seahawks.

Every score

Q2 8:22FGJ.Myers from 25 yards3-0
Q2 1:44TDS.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 28 yards10-0
Q3 8:09FGJ.Myers from 35 yards13-0
Q3 1:42FGH.Butker from 50 yards13-3
Q4 3:47TDE.Wilson ran it in from 21 yards20-3

⚖️What decided it

Why the Seahawks won, and why the Chiefs did not.

From the game

Out-gained them by 197 yards, 410 to 213
Won the ground game, 153 rushing yards to 50
Kept drives alive, eleven of sixteen on third down to three of eleven
Sam Darnold started at quarterback, not Drew Lock
Stalled near the line, no touchdowns from three trips inside the 20

Key battles

7Big plays0

153Rushing yards50

69%Third downs converted27%

24First downs11

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Seahawks

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 28 yards
Q2 1:44 · SEA 10-0 KC
TOUCHDOWN
E.Wilson, 21 yards
Q4 3:47 · SEA 20-3 KC
3RD DOWN
S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba for 33 yards on 3rd & 7
Q2 11:19 · SEA 0-0 KC

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
S.Darnold picked off by N.Williams at the SEA 44
Q2 0:23 · SEA 10-0 KC

Chiefs

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
N.Williams picked off S.Darnold at the SEA 44
Q2 0:23 · SEA 10-0 KC
3RD DOWN
P.Mahomes to T.Kelce for 18 yards on 3rd & 7
Q3 4:35 · SEA 13-0 KC
3RD DOWN
P.Mahomes to T.Kelce for 19 yards on 3rd & 6
Q4 13:11 · SEA 13-3 KC

Bad plays

MISSED FG
H.Butker missed from 58 yards
Q2 0:01 · SEA 10-0 KC
MISSED FG
H.Butker missed from 45 yards
Q4 8:38 · SEA 13-3 KC
INTERCEPTION
P.Mahomes picked off by T.Okada at the SEA 34
Q2 6:09 · SEA 3-0 KC

📊The numbers

SEA		KC
410	Total yards	213
5.9	Yards per play	4.3
+0.16	Points added per play	-0.10
257	Passing yards	163
153	Rushing yards	50
24	First downs	11
69%	Third downs converted	27%
0%	Red zone trips scored	0%
7	Big plays	0
1	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	1
20	Penalty yards	15
35:51	Time with the ball	24:09

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

We expect this to stay close the whole way

SeahawksChiefsActual

6-3

Actual 0-0

Half

10-13

Actual 10-0

14-18

Actual 13-3

Final

21-24

Actual 20-3

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Seahawks

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Chiefs

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

SEA

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored27.028.01422

Per playPoorGreatPoorGood

Yards a play5.56.84.87.4

Passing yards254262278272

Rushing yards109160113150

Big plays5.67.869

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed22.416.6176

Per playGreatGoodGreatGreat

Takeaways1.61.802

Sacks2.61.424

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways2.40.832

Sacks allowed2.81.250

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards70.068.87589

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ SeahawksChiefs ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Seahawks

Chiefs

Record3-35-0

Conference8 in NFC1 in AFC

Pts for / game24.728.0

Pts against / game20.316.6

Division1-13-0

Starting QBSam DarnoldPatrick Mahomes

KC v LAC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	9-4	7-5	4-4	8-4
Happened	9-3	10-0	0-3	3-0

KC v LV	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-3	5-7	6-4	6-7
Happened	7-7	3-6	0-0	20-14

KC v MIA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-5	5-7	9-2	6-7
Happened	7-7	7-0	0-3	10-0

KC v IND	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	9-6	3-4	8-5
Happened	10-7	7-13	7-0	3-7

KC v DEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	6-8	5-6	6-5
Happened	7-7	7-0	10-3	7-0

A deserved win for the Seahawks

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form leans to the Chiefs

Chiefs

Seahawks

Public Opinion

KC		LAC
422	Total yards	277
7.4	Yards per play	4.4
+0.08	Points added per play	-0.27
20	First downs	11
9	Big plays	1
2	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	4
89	Penalty yards	59

KC		LV
414	Total yards	437
7.1	Yards per play	5.6
+0.13	Points added per play	+0.05
17	First downs	24
8	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	0
59	Penalty yards	30

KC		MIA
334	Total yards	329
6.8	Yards per play	4.9
+0.14	Points added per play	-0.15
16	First downs	16
6	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	0
50	Penalty yards	64

KC		IND
534	Total yards	329
6.8	Yards per play	5.2
+0.23	Points added per play	+0.15
29	First downs	21
9	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	0
86	Penalty yards	30

KC		DEN
404	Total yards	192
6.0	Yards per play	4.1
+0.09	Points added per play	-0.34
18	First downs	8
7	Big plays	1
1	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	4
60	Penalty yards	52

SEA		DEN
391	Total yards	181
4.8	Yards per play	3.2
-0.09	Points added per play	-0.14
23	First downs	11
6	Big plays	1
3	Turnovers	0
5	Sacks taken	2
75	Penalty yards	42

SEA		SF
284	Total yards	283
4.7	Yards per play	5.1
-0.43	Points added per play	-0.12
13	First downs	14
4	Big plays	6
4	Turnovers	3
5	Sacks taken	3
46	Penalty yards	70

SEA		WSH
437	Total yards	265
6.8	Yards per play	4.1
-0.05	Points added per play	-0.10
25	First downs	15
5	Big plays	3
3	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	2
53	Penalty yards	57

SEA v LAC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-3	5-5	5-4	11-3
Happened	7-3	13-3	10-7	0-10