Patriots at Dolphins - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

MIANEWhat happenedWhat we expected (MIA 19, NE 27)What the play deserved

The Patriots fell 14 points behind the pace we expected in the second quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ MIA better than we expected

+2Q13-3

+12Q210-0

-10Q30-14

-1Q46-7

▼ NE better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 12 points better than our numbers for the Dolphins.

Every score

Q1 9:10FGA.Borregales from 34 yards0-3
Q1 3:39FGZ.Gonzalez from 31 yards3-3
Q2 9:27FGZ.Gonzalez from 52 yards6-3
Q2 0:08TDM.Willis to M.Washington, 1 yard13-3
Q3 9:23TDD.Maye to K.Williams, 43 yards13-10
Q3 0:59TDD.Maye ran it in from 2 yards13-17
Q4 12:39TDD.Maye to D.Douglas, 48 yards13-24
Q4 2:04TDM.Willis to K.Coleman, 35 yards19-24

⚖️What decided it

Why the Patriots won, and why the Dolphins did not.

From the game

Got to the quarterback five times

Key battles

74Rushing yards131

5Sacks taken3

4Big plays6

4.5Yards per play5.3

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Dolphins

Good plays

FUMBLE
J.Brents recovered a fumble at the NE 19
Q1 5:59 · MIA 0-3 NE
TOUCHDOWN
M.Willis to K.Coleman, 35 yards
Q4 2:04 · MIA 19-24 NE
3RD DOWN
M.Willis to G.Dulcich for 19 yards on 3rd & 8
Q2 1:50 · MIA 6-3 NE

Bad plays

MISSED FG
Z.Gonzalez missed from 43 yards
Q4 6:45 · MIA 13-24 NE
INTERCEPTION
M.Willis picked off by K.Byard at the NE 47
Q4 13:41 · MIA 13-17 NE
SACK
M.Willis sacked on 2nd & 13
Q2 10:59 · MIA 3-3 NE

Patriots

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
D.Maye to D.Douglas, 48 yards
Q4 12:39 · MIA 13-24 NE
TOUCHDOWN
D.Maye to K.Williams, 43 yards
Q3 9:23 · MIA 13-10 NE
INTERCEPTION
K.Byard picked off M.Willis at the NE 47
Q4 13:41 · MIA 13-17 NE

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the NE 19
Q1 5:59 · MIA 0-3 NE
MISSED FG
A.Borregales missed from 40 yards
Q2 2:24 · MIA 6-3 NE

📊The numbers

MIA		NE
269	Total yards	313
4.5	Yards per play	5.3
-0.07	Points added per play	+0.15
195	Passing yards	182
74	Rushing yards	131
17	First downs	16
50%	Third downs converted	43%
50%	Red zone trips scored	50%
4	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	3
50	Penalty yards	46
28:03	Time with the ball	31:57

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Patriots should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

DolphinsPatriots⭐Actual

3-6

Actual 3-3

Half

10-13

Actual 13-3

13-21

Actual 13-17

Final

19-27

Actual 19-24

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Dolphins

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Patriots

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

MIA

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored17.026.02824

Per playFairGoodGreatGreat

Yards a play5.46.55.77.8

Passing yards167289208321

Rushing yards14312215670

Big plays6.26.864

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed26.025.42530

Per playBadPoorBadBad

Takeaways0.61.010

Sacks1.22.223

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.21.801

Sacks allowed2.21.422

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards45.069.42671

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ DolphinsPatriots ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Dolphins

Patriots

Record1-54-3

Conference14 in AFC8 in AFC

Pts for / game16.322.9

Pts against / game26.220.4

Division1-02-0

Starting QBMalik WillisDrake Maye

NE v CHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	8-6	3-5	7-8
Happened	0-10	14-10	7-7	3-3

NE v NYJ	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-3	7-5	5-3	7-7
Happened	7-3	10-0	0-10	9-6

NE v LV	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-2	7-7	6-3	6-7
Happened	14-7	7-0	14-3	10-7

NE v BUF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	7-8	2-5	6-9
Happened	7-0	7-17	7-0	8-9

NE v JAX	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-4	6-7	3-5	6-5
Happened	0-0	3-14	0-14	3-7

A deserved win for the Patriots

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Patriots

Dolphins

Public Opinion

NE		CHI
391	Total yards	424
7.8	Yards per play	6.4
+0.16	Points added per play	+0.17
18	First downs	18
4	Big plays	10
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	3
71	Penalty yards	69

NE		NYJ
383	Total yards	349
5.6	Yards per play	5.8
+0.08	Points added per play	-0.04
21	First downs	19
5	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	3
57	Penalty yards	35

NE		LV
539	Total yards	329
8.2	Yards per play	5.8
+0.40	Points added per play	+0.08
25	First downs	15
12	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	3
116	Penalty yards	101

NE		BUF
412	Total yards	344
5.6	Yards per play	6.4
+0.19	Points added per play	+0.14
25	First downs	15
8	Big plays	8
2	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	1
35	Penalty yards	31

NE		JAX
328	Total yards	319
5.5	Yards per play	5.3
-0.25	Points added per play	+0.23
14	First downs	20
5	Big plays	3
3	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	1
68	Penalty yards	56

MIA		NYJ
364	Total yards	395
5.7	Yards per play	7.5
+0.25	Points added per play	+0.27
22	First downs	16
6	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	2
26	Penalty yards	36

MIA		MIN
206	Total yards	370
5.6	Yards per play	5.1
-0.20	Points added per play	-0.12
7	First downs	19
3	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	0
2	Sacks taken	4
55	Penalty yards	85

MIA		KC
329	Total yards	334
4.9	Yards per play	6.8
-0.15	Points added per play	+0.14
16	First downs	16
7	Big plays	6
2	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	0
64	Penalty yards	50

MIA		SF
299	Total yards	382
5.3	Yards per play	7.8
-0.00	Points added per play	+0.44
12	First downs	22
3	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	0
4	Sacks taken	0
50	Penalty yards	78

MIA v MIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	6-6	2-7	4-7
Happened	0-3	0-6	10-3	0-3