Falcons at Buccaneers - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

TBATLWhat happenedWhat we expected (TB 22, ATL 21)What the play deserved

The Buccaneers got 9 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter and stayed there. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ TB better than we expected

+5Q16-0

+4Q23-0

+4Q37-0

+1Q40-0

▼ ATL better than we expected

The first quarter was where it moved most, 5 points better than our numbers for the Buccaneers.

Every score

Q1 7:43FGC.McLaughlin from 46 yards3-0
Q1 4:02FGC.McLaughlin from 34 yards6-0
Q2 4:04FGC.McLaughlin from 42 yards9-0
Q3 3:47TDB.Irving ran it in from 4 yards16-0

⚖️What decided it

Why the Buccaneers won, and why the Falcons did not.

From the game

Won the turnovers, took it away four times and gave it up once
Won the ground game, 324 rushing yards to 99
Kept drives alive, four of thirteen on third down to no of twelve
Stalled near the line, one touchdown from three trips inside the 20

Key battles

31%Third downs converted0%

33%Red zone trips scored0%

-2Passing yards125

324Rushing yards99

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Buccaneers

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
A.Anzalone picked off M.Penix at the ATL 18
Q1 7:35 · TB 3-0 ATL
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 2 at the TB 14
Q4 3:15 · TB 16-0 ATL
INTERCEPTION
Z.McCollum picked off M.Penix at the TB 14
Q4 13:35 · TB 16-0 ATL

Bad plays

Nothing costly of their own making.

Falcons

Good plays

BIG PLAY
M.Penix to J.Dotson for 76 yards
Q4 4:35 · TB 16-0 ATL
4TH DOWN
M.Penix for 7 yards on 4th & 4
Q3 1:44 · TB 16-0 ATL
BIG PLAY
Falcons for 26 yards
Q2 14:54 · TB 6-0 ATL

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
M.Penix picked off by A.Anzalone at the ATL 18
Q1 7:35 · TB 3-0 ATL
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 2 at the TB 14
Q4 3:15 · TB 16-0 ATL
INTERCEPTION
M.Penix picked off by Z.McCollum at the TB 14
Q4 13:35 · TB 16-0 ATL

📊The numbers

TB		ATL
322	Total yards	224
5.4	Yards per play	4.3
-0.20	Points added per play	-0.52
-2	Passing yards	125
324	Rushing yards	99
16	First downs	8
31%	Third downs converted	0%
33%	Red zone trips scored	0%
10	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	4
1	Sacks taken	0
40	Penalty yards	25
35:16	Time with the ball	24:44

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

We expect this to stay close the whole way

BuccaneersFalconsActual

7-6

Actual 6-0

Half

12-12

Actual 9-0

17-14

Actual 16-0

Final

22-21

Actual 16-0

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Buccaneers

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Falcons

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

ATL

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored23.231.04329

Per playPoorGoodGreatGood

Yards a play4.96.35.44.7

Passing yards15623864213

Rushing yards16014025882

Big plays5.66.282

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed19.023.81320

Per playGreatFairGreatPoor

Takeaways2.21.644

Sacks2.62.652

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.21.000

Sacks allowed3.01.800

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards52.658.03539

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ BuccaneersFalcons ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Buccaneers

Falcons

Record2-53-4

Conference12 in NFC11 in NFC

Pts for / game23.124.4

Pts against / game21.624.7

Division1-01-1

Starting QBBaker MayfieldMichael Penix Jr.

ATL v SF	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-7	5-7	3-6	6-7
Happened	3-7	9-7	7-0	10-6

ATL v CHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-4	9-5	3-5	6-9
Happened	0-14	7-7	0-7	16-3

ATL v BAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	7-7	6-4	8-7
Happened	7-3	7-6	3-6	6-8

ATL v NO	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-2	8-5	4-8	5-8
Happened	14-0	10-7	7-3	14-14

ATL v GB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	2-4	7-8	3-8	7-5
Happened	7-7	10-0	7-0	11-7

A deserved win for the Buccaneers

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form does not split them

Falcons

Buccaneers

Public Opinion

ATL		SF
295	Total yards	411
4.7	Yards per play	6.3
+0.05	Points added per play	+0.07
17	First downs	24
2	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	4
0	Sacks taken	2
39	Penalty yards	55

ATL		CHI
288	Total yards	403
5.8	Yards per play	5.5
-0.27	Points added per play	-0.03
10	First downs	19
6	Big plays	5
3	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	4
31	Penalty yards	133

ATL		BAL
384	Total yards	409
6.0	Yards per play	5.8
-0.02	Points added per play	+0.14
17	First downs	23
6	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	1
3	Sacks taken	4
67	Penalty yards	40

ATL		NO
428	Total yards	336
7.6	Yards per play	4.9
+0.41	Points added per play	-0.07
22	First downs	19
9	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	2
70	Penalty yards	49

ATL		GB
498	Total yards	329
7.5	Yards per play	5.2
+0.33	Points added per play	+0.01
23	First downs	16
8	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	1
83	Penalty yards	45

TB		CAR
322	Total yards	298
5.4	Yards per play	5.5
+0.20	Points added per play	-0.27
20	First downs	15
8	Big plays	4
0	Turnovers	4
0	Sacks taken	5
35	Penalty yards	56

TB		PIT
266	Total yards	342
3.6	Yards per play	4.5
-0.30	Points added per play	-0.19
16	First downs	20
6	Big plays	3
2	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	5
38	Penalty yards	62

TB		DAL
430	Total yards	366
6.6	Yards per play	6.7
+0.16	Points added per play	-0.05
20	First downs	17
7	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	3
1	Sacks taken	0
92	Penalty yards	57

TB		GB
289	Total yards	283
4.7	Yards per play	5.1
-0.04	Points added per play	+0.02
18	First downs	13
4	Big plays	3
2	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	0
17	Penalty yards	68

TB		MIN
274	Total yards	246
4.3	Yards per play	4.5
-0.25	Points added per play	-0.26
9	First downs	9
3	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	1
6	Sacks taken	3
81	Penalty yards	95