Buccaneers at Cowboys - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

DALTBWhat happenedWhat we expected (DAL 30, TB 20)What the play deserved

The Buccaneers got 21 points ahead of the pace we expected in the third quarter and stayed there.

Where it moved

▲ DAL better than we expected

+6Q17-0

-8Q23-7

-19Q30-17

+4Q46-0

▼ TB better than we expected

The third quarter was where it moved most, 19 points worse than our numbers for the Cowboys.

Every score

Q1 10:51TDJ.Williams from the 17-0
Q2 14:53TDJ.Daniels to B.Irving, 5 yards7-7
Q2 0:21FGB.Aubrey from 41 yards10-7
Q3 14:00TDE.Egbuka ran it in from 14 yards10-14
Q3 7:31TDB.Irving from the 110-21
Q3 2:58FGC.McLaughlin from 41 yards10-24
Q4 5:26TDD.Prescott to G.Pickens, 18 yards16-24

⚖️What decided it

Why the Buccaneers won, and why the Cowboys did not.

From the game

Won the turnovers, took it away three times and never gave it up
Won the ground game, 241 rushing yards to 50
Jalon Daniels started at quarterback, not Baker Mayfield
Flagged 14 times for 92 yards

Key battles

50Rushing yards241

3Turnovers0

20:39Time with the ball39:21

316Passing yards178

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Cowboys

Good plays

4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 1 at the DAL 1
Q4 8:36 · DAL 10-24 TB
BIG PLAY
D.Prescott to R.Flournoy for 48 yards
Q2 1:52 · DAL 7-7 TB
BIG PLAY
D.Prescott to R.Flournoy for 26 yards
Q4 3:22 · DAL 16-24 TB

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
D.Prescott picked off by A.Anzalone at the TB 12
Q4 1:22 · DAL 16-24 TB
INTERCEPTION
D.Prescott picked off by Y.Diaby at the TB 25
Q3 10:51 · DAL 10-14 TB
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 3 at the DAL 43
Q3 1:49 · DAL 10-24 TB

Buccaneers

Good plays

BIG PLAY
J.Daniels to T.Johnson for 64 yards
Q3 9:36 · DAL 10-14 TB
BIG PLAY
B.Irving for 72 yards
Q3 14:54 · DAL 10-7 TB
INTERCEPTION
A.Anzalone picked off D.Prescott at the TB 12
Q4 1:22 · DAL 16-24 TB

Bad plays

4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 1 at the DAL 1
Q4 8:36 · DAL 10-24 TB
SACK
J.Daniels sacked on 1st & 10
Q3 7:24 · DAL 10-21 TB

📊The numbers

DAL		TB
366	Total yards	419
6.7	Yards per play	6.4
-0.05	Points added per play	+0.16
316	Passing yards	178
50	Rushing yards	241
20	First downs	24
40%	Third downs converted	54%
100%	Red zone trips scored	60%
6	Big plays	7
3	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	1
57	Penalty yards	92
20:39	Time with the ball	39:21

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Cowboys should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

Cowboys⭐BuccaneersActual

7-6

Actual 7-0

Half

15-10

Actual 10-7

22-15

Actual 10-24

Final

30-20

Actual 16-24

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Cowboys

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

Buccaneers

Season4 games

Last 55 games, 1 from 2025

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

DAL

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored27.818.43414

Per playGreatPoorGreatFair

Yards a play5.65.05.64.7

Passing yards242193335148

Rushing yards10011375141

Big plays5.04.264

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed29.222.03017

Per playBadGoodBadFair

Takeaways0.61.402

Sacks1.61.220

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.82.002

Sacks allowed1.23.633

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards70.248.84717

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ CowboysBuccaneers ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Cowboys

Buccaneers

Record2-20-4

Conference7 in NFC16 in NFC

Pts for / game30.519.0

Pts against / game28.024.0

Division1-10-0

Starting QBDak PrescottJalon Daniels

DAL v HOU	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	8-7	6-3	6-8
Happened	3-10	3-6	14-7	14-7

DAL v BAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	9-8	5-4	6-8
Happened	10-7	3-10	8-7	10-10

DAL v WSH	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	10-9	5-4	5-8
Happened	10-0	7-10	10-3	10-7

DAL v NYG	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	10-8	3-4	7-8
Happened	0-7	7-7	7-7	6-7

TB v GB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-5	6-10	5-5	7-5
Happened	0-0	7-10	0-7	7-0

A deserved win for the Buccaneers, and better than we expected

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Cowboys

Buccaneers

Public Opinion

DAL		HOU
410	Total yards	409
5.6	Yards per play	7.9
+0.14	Points added per play	+0.23
24	First downs	16
6	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
47	Penalty yards	90

DAL		BAL
424	Total yards	378
6.0	Yards per play	6.5
+0.17	Points added per play	+0.13
24	First downs	20
5	Big plays	11
1	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	0
88	Penalty yards	78

DAL		NYG
244	Total yards	395
4.7	Yards per play	5.8
+0.22	Points added per play	+0.31
16	First downs	25
1	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	2
90	Penalty yards	114

TB		GB
289	Total yards	283
4.7	Yards per play	5.1
-0.04	Points added per play	+0.02
18	First downs	13
4	Big plays	3
2	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	0
17	Penalty yards	68

TB		MIN
274	Total yards	246
4.3	Yards per play	4.5
-0.25	Points added per play	-0.26
9	First downs	9
3	Big plays	5
2	Turnovers	1
6	Sacks taken	3
81	Penalty yards	95

TB		CLE
319	Total yards	282
5.1	Yards per play	5.1
-0.15	Points added per play	+0.01
16	First downs	13
7	Big plays	2
1	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
62	Penalty yards	50

TB		CIN
305	Total yards	360
5.9	Yards per play	5.7
-0.13	Points added per play	-0.05
17	First downs	24
3	Big plays	7
4	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	1
39	Penalty yards	47