Ravens at Browns - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

CLEBALWhat happenedWhat we expected (CLE 23, BAL 23)What the play deserved

The Browns fell 7 points behind the pace we expected in the first quarter, then it evened out by full time. A much tighter, lower scoring game than we expected.

Where it moved

▲ CLE better than we expected

-7Q10-10

0Q20-0

+2Q33-0

+8Q410-0

▼ BAL better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 8 points better than our numbers for the Browns.

Every score

Q1 8:11TDT.Huntley to J.Cuevas, 2 yards0-7
Q1 4:37FGT.Loop from 34 yards0-10
Q3 7:48FGA.Szmyt from 48 yards3-10
Q4 8:33TDA.Estime ran it in from 2 yards10-10
Q4 0:00FGA.Szmyt from 37 yards13-10

⚖️What decided it

Why the Browns won, and why the Ravens did not.

From the game

The Ravens started Tyler Huntley at quarterback, not Lamar Jackson
Sacked five times

Key battles

1Big plays6

45Penalty yards29

0Turnovers1

5Sacks taken3

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Browns

Good plays

FUMBLE
T.Campbell recovered a fumble at the BAL 35
Q4 12:45 · CLE 3-10 BAL
3RD DOWN
D.Watson to J.Jeudy for 33 yards on 3rd & 5
Q4 0:42 · CLE 10-10 BAL
3RD DOWN
D.Watson to K.Concepcion for 15 yards on 3rd & 4
Q4 11:17 · CLE 3-10 BAL

Bad plays

MISSED FG
A.Szmyt missed from 48 yards
Q4 3:44 · CLE 10-10 BAL
SACK
D.Watson sacked on 3rd & 5
Q1 7:22 · CLE 0-7 BAL

Ravens

Good plays

3RD DOWN
T.Huntley to Z.Flowers for 31 yards on 3rd & 11
Q3 1:45 · CLE 3-10 BAL
3RD DOWN
T.Huntley to Z.Flowers for 17 yards on 3rd & 10
Q2 3:01 · CLE 0-10 BAL
TOUCHDOWN
T.Huntley to J.Cuevas, 2 yards
Q1 8:11 · CLE 0-7 BAL

Bad plays

FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the BAL 35
Q4 12:45 · CLE 3-10 BAL
MISSED FG
T.Loop missed from 49 yards
Q4 14:18 · CLE 3-10 BAL
SACK
T.Huntley sacked on 2nd & 10
Q2 2:00 · CLE 0-10 BAL

📊The numbers

CLE		BAL
237	Total yards	235
4.0	Yards per play	4.1
-0.12	Points added per play	-0.09
144	Passing yards	148
93	Rushing yards	87
14	First downs	13
31%	Third downs converted	38%
50%	Red zone trips scored	50%
1	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	1
5	Sacks taken	3
45	Penalty yards	29
31:53	Time with the ball	28:07

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

We expect this to stay close the whole way

BrownsRavensActual

3-7

Actual 0-10

Half

10-14

Actual 0-10

15-17

Actual 3-10

Final

23-23

Actual 13-10

Ravens score 57% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Browns

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Ravens

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

CLE

BAL

CLE

BAL

CLE

BAL

CLE

BAL

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored18.629.21230

Per playPoorGreatBadGreat

Yards a play5.16.63.95.8

Passing yards202246155201

Rushing yards94.216496208

Big plays4.88.077

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed22.423.81723

Per playFairFairGreatFair

Takeaways1.21.221

Sacks3.22.043

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.40.621

Sacks allowed3.82.284

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards65.473.83040

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ BrownsRavens ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Browns

Ravens

Record3-24-1

Conference10 in AFC3 in AFC

Pts for / game18.629.2

Pts against / game22.423.8

Division1-00-0

Starting QBDeshaun WatsonTyler Huntley

BAL v ATL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	7-7	4-6	7-8
Happened	3-7	6-7	6-3	8-6

BAL v TEN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	10-4	6-4	6-6
Happened	7-7	17-0	0-3	0-8

BAL v DAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-4	8-9	4-5	8-6
Happened	7-10	10-3	7-8	10-10

BAL v NO	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-2	8-6	5-6	6-7
Happened	7-0	7-6	3-3	0-15

BAL v IND	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-6	8-7	4-6	8-5
Happened	14-6	17-7	0-3	10-7

The Browns edged a tight one

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form does not split them

Ravens

Browns

Public Opinion

BAL		ATL
409	Total yards	384
5.8	Yards per play	6.0
+0.14	Points added per play	-0.02
23	First downs	17
7	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	3
40	Penalty yards	67

BAL		DAL
378	Total yards	424
6.5	Yards per play	6.0
+0.13	Points added per play	+0.17
20	First downs	24
11	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	1
78	Penalty yards	88

BAL		NO
343	Total yards	317
6.1	Yards per play	5.0
+0.11	Points added per play	+0.15
19	First downs	17
5	Big plays	6
1	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	3
34	Penalty yards	35

BAL		IND
526	Total yards	268
8.2	Yards per play	5.1
+0.27	Points added per play	-0.14
23	First downs	16
9	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	2
86	Penalty yards	29

CLE		NYJ
251	Total yards	316
3.9	Yards per play	4.8
-0.30	Points added per play	-0.18
10	First downs	14
7	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	2
8	Sacks taken	4
30	Penalty yards	102

CLE		PIT
380	Total yards	391
6.1	Yards per play	6.1
+0.10	Points added per play	+0.07
20	First downs	19
5	Big plays	7
2	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	5
88	Penalty yards	50

CLE		TB
282	Total yards	319
5.1	Yards per play	5.1
+0.01	Points added per play	-0.15
13	First downs	16
2	Big plays	7
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	3
50	Penalty yards	62

CLE		JAX
292	Total yards	371
6.0	Yards per play	6.6
-0.10	Points added per play	+0.32
14	First downs	21
4	Big plays	9
2	Turnovers	0
5	Sacks taken	1
75	Penalty yards	25

CLE v PIT	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-5	5-6	3-5	9-5
Happened	0-7	21-3	0-0	6-14