Chiefs at Broncos - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

DENKCWhat happenedWhat we expected (DEN 22, KC 21)What the play deserved

The Broncos fell 11 points behind the pace we expected in the third quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ DEN better than we expected

-5Q13-7

0Q210-10

-7Q30-7

+14Q415-0

▼ KC better than we expected

The fourth quarter was where it moved most, 14 points better than our numbers for the Broncos.

Every score

Q1 9:43FGW.Lutz from 39 yards3-0
Q1 6:04TDP.Mahomes to R.Rice, 11 yards3-7
Q2 14:08FGW.Lutz from 45 yards6-7
Q2 7:40TDP.Mahomes to E.Johnson, 73 yards6-14
Q2 1:15TDB.Nix to J.Waddle, 1 yard13-14
Q2 0:19FGH.Butker from 45 yards13-17
Q3 1:38TDP.Mahomes to N.Gray, 4 yards13-24
Q4 8:55TDB.Nix to N.Adkins, 2 yards, two-point try good21-24
Q4 1:56TDJ.Coleman ran it in from 5 yards28-24

⚖️What decided it

Why the Broncos won, and why the Chiefs did not.

From the game

Flagged 11 times for 105 yards
Out-gained by 105 yards, 294 to 399

Key battles

18%Third downs converted43%

45Penalty yards105

100%Red zone trips scored67%

217Passing yards309

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Broncos

Good plays

BIG PLAY
B.Nix to J.Coleman for 51 yards
Q4 2:31 · DEN 21-24 KC
SACK
Sacked P.Mahomes on 4th & 6
Q4 0:04 · DEN 28-24 KC
TOUCHDOWN
B.Nix to N.Adkins, 2 yards
Q4 8:55 · DEN 21-24 KC

Bad plays

Nothing costly of their own making.

Chiefs

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
P.Mahomes to E.Johnson, 73 yards
Q2 7:40 · DEN 6-14 KC
BIG PLAY
P.Mahomes to T.Kelce for 32 yards
Q4 1:32 · DEN 28-24 KC
BIG PLAY
P.Mahomes to E.Johnson for 38 yards
Q2 1:02 · DEN 13-14 KC

Bad plays

SACK
P.Mahomes sacked on 4th & 6
Q4 0:04 · DEN 28-24 KC
MISSED FG
H.Butker missed from 54 yards
Q4 2:36 · DEN 21-24 KC
SACK
P.Mahomes sacked on 3rd & 2
Q4 2:44 · DEN 21-24 KC

📊The numbers

DEN		KC
294	Total yards	399
5.2	Yards per play	6.0
+0.11	Points added per play	+0.16
217	Passing yards	309
77	Rushing yards	90
21	First downs	22
18%	Third downs converted	43%
100%	Red zone trips scored	67%
6	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	2
45	Penalty yards	105
28:31	Time with the ball	31:29

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

We expect this to stay close the whole way

BroncosChiefsActual

6-3

Actual 3-7

Half

12-10

Actual 13-17

15-14

Actual 13-24

Final

22-21

Actual 28-24

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Broncos

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Chiefs

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

DEN

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored22.822.4303

Per playFairGoodGreatPoor

Yards a play4.66.56.84.3

Passing yards170258222165

Rushing yards99.812615950

Big plays3.46.470

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed19.418.61620

Per playGoodFairGoodBad

Takeaways1.61.601

Sacks3.40.830

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways0.60.801

Sacks allowed1.01.011

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards55.659.811415

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ BroncosChiefs ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Broncos

Chiefs

Record5-25-1

Conference4 in AFC1 in AFC

Pts for / game20.623.8

Pts against / game20.117.2

Division1-13-0

Starting QBBo NixPatrick Mahomes

KC v SEA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-5	9-5	4-5	6-6
Happened	0-0	0-10	3-3	0-7

KC v LAC	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	9-4	7-5	4-4	8-4
Happened	9-3	10-0	0-3	3-0

KC v LV	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-3	5-7	6-4	6-7
Happened	7-7	3-6	0-0	20-14

KC v MIA	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	6-5	5-7	9-2	6-7
Happened	7-7	7-0	0-3	10-0

KC v IND	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-6	9-6	3-4	8-5
Happened	10-7	7-13	7-0	3-7

The Broncos got lucky

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Recent form does not split them

Chiefs

Broncos

Public Opinion

KC		SEA
215	Total yards	410
4.3	Yards per play	5.9
-0.10	Points added per play	+0.16
11	First downs	24
0	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	0
15	Penalty yards	20

KC		LAC
422	Total yards	277
7.4	Yards per play	4.4
+0.08	Points added per play	-0.27
20	First downs	11
9	Big plays	1
2	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	4
89	Penalty yards	59

KC		LV
414	Total yards	437
7.1	Yards per play	5.6
+0.13	Points added per play	+0.05
17	First downs	24
8	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	2
2	Sacks taken	0
59	Penalty yards	30

KC		MIA
334	Total yards	329
6.8	Yards per play	4.9
+0.14	Points added per play	-0.15
16	First downs	16
6	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	0
50	Penalty yards	64

KC		IND
534	Total yards	329
6.8	Yards per play	5.2
+0.23	Points added per play	+0.15
29	First downs	21
9	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	1
2	Sacks taken	0
86	Penalty yards	30

DEN		ARI
381	Total yards	366
6.8	Yards per play	4.9
+0.19	Points added per play	-0.11
16	First downs	18
7	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	3
114	Penalty yards	59

DEN		SEA
181	Total yards	391
3.2	Yards per play	4.8
-0.14	Points added per play	-0.09
11	First downs	23
1	Big plays	6
0	Turnovers	3
2	Sacks taken	5
42	Penalty yards	75

DEN		SF
296	Total yards	358
4.6	Yards per play	5.5
+0.09	Points added per play	+0.12
16	First downs	19
2	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	0
44	Penalty yards	5

DEN		LAR
264	Total yards	506
4.4	Yards per play	6.2
-0.01	Points added per play	+0.02
16	First downs	25
4	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	4
38	Penalty yards	91

DEN v LAR	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	7-6	5-7	5-5
Happened	0-7	0-9	16-0	14-10