Cowboys at Packers - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

GBDALWhat happenedWhat we expected (GB 27, DAL 22)What the play deserved

The Packers got 13 points ahead of the pace we expected in the second quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ GB better than we expected

+5Q17-0

+7Q210-0

-6Q33-7

-1Q43-6

▼ DAL better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 7 points better than our numbers for the Packers.

Every score

Q1 4:43TDJ.Love to M.Golden, 9 yards7-0
Q2 5:58FGT.Smack from 25 yards10-0
Q2 0:23TDJ.Love from the 117-0
Q3 9:19TDJ.Williams from the 117-7
Q3 5:02FGT.Smack from 44 yards20-7
Q4 10:06FGT.Smack from 29 yards23-7
Q4 0:44TDD.Prescott to R.Flournoy, 6 yards23-13

⚖️What decided it

Why the Packers won, and why the Cowboys did not.

From the game

Flagged 11 times for 108 yards
Flagged 11 times for 96 yards
Sacked three times, and got to their quarterback once

Key battles

6Big plays1

61%Third downs converted38%

3Sacks taken1

1Turnovers2

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Packers

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
B.Cisse picked off D.Prescott at the GB 23
Q2 2:00 · GB 10-0 DAL
INTERCEPTION
E.Williams picked off D.Prescott at the GB 20
Q2 14:23 · GB 7-0 DAL
3RD DOWN
J.Love to C.Watson for 27 yards on 3rd & 13
Q1 8:58 · GB 0-0 DAL

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Love picked off by D.Winters at the GB 42
Q1 1:53 · GB 7-0 DAL
PENALTY
Illegal contact on T.Hopper, 5 yards
Q4 9:17 · GB 23-7 DAL
SACK
J.Love sacked on 3rd & 2
Q3 2:08 · GB 20-7 DAL

Cowboys

Good plays

INTERCEPTION
D.Winters picked off J.Love at the GB 42
Q1 1:53 · GB 7-0 DAL
4TH DOWN
D.Prescott to C.Lamb for 17 yards on 4th & 2
Q3 12:25 · GB 17-0 DAL
BIG PLAY
D.Prescott to G.Pickens for 21 yards
Q4 1:54 · GB 23-7 DAL

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
D.Prescott picked off by B.Cisse at the GB 23
Q2 2:00 · GB 10-0 DAL
PENALTY
Defensive pass interference on J.Porter, 37 yards
Q2 1:01 · GB 10-0 DAL
INTERCEPTION
D.Prescott picked off by E.Williams at the GB 20
Q2 14:23 · GB 7-0 DAL

📊The numbers

GB		DAL
318	Total yards	303
4.5	Yards per play	4.3
+0.03	Points added per play	-0.13
261	Passing yards	255
57	Rushing yards	48
20	First downs	24
61%	Third downs converted	38%
50%	Red zone trips scored	50%
6	Big plays	1
1	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	1
96	Penalty yards	108
30:51	Time with the ball	29:09

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Packers should be in front at every break, the gap building steadily

Packers⭐CowboysActual

6-3

Actual 7-0

Half

14-10

Actual 17-0

21-14

Actual 20-7

Final

27-22

Actual 23-13

Packers score 55% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Packers

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Cowboys

Season5 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

DAL

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored20.827.63116

Per playFairGreatGreatPoor

Yards a play5.75.97.46.7

Passing yards282276367316

Rushing yards60.481.67050

Big plays5.44.686

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed22.427.2724

Per playFairBadGreatBad

Takeaways1.80.450

Sacks2.81.041

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.21.003

Sacks allowed2.01.220

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards73.862.82557

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ PackersCowboys ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Packers

Cowboys

Record3-22-3

Conference7 in NFC9 in NFC

Pts for / game20.827.6

Pts against / game22.427.2

Division1-11-1

Starting QBJordan LoveDak Prescott

GB v CHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	9-5	4-5	4-11
Happened	7-0	7-7	9-0	8-0

GB v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	10-6	5-5	5-7
Happened	0-0	10-7	7-0	0-7

GB v ATL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-2	8-7	8-3	5-7
Happened	7-7	0-10	0-7	7-11

GB v NYJ	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-4	9-5	6-4	4-9
Happened	0-0	7-7	0-7	10-3

GB v MIN	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	3-4	9-6	6-4	5-8
Happened	9-3	10-7	3-7	0-22

A deserved win for the Packers

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Packers

Cowboys

Public Opinion

GB		CHI
437	Total yards	276
7.4	Yards per play	4.1
+0.20	Points added per play	-0.26
18	First downs	16
8	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	5
2	Sacks taken	4
25	Penalty yards	20

GB		TB
283	Total yards	289
5.1	Yards per play	4.7
+0.02	Points added per play	-0.04
13	First downs	18
3	Big plays	4
2	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	3
68	Penalty yards	17

GB		ATL
329	Total yards	498
5.2	Yards per play	7.5
+0.01	Points added per play	+0.33
16	First downs	23
4	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	0
45	Penalty yards	83

GB		NYJ
208	Total yards	314
4.2	Yards per play	4.4
-0.22	Points added per play	-0.10
12	First downs	17
3	Big plays	3
1	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	4
133	Penalty yards	156

GB		MIN
453	Total yards	258
6.8	Yards per play	4.2
-0.17	Points added per play	-0.02
19	First downs	14
9	Big plays	2
2	Turnovers	1
4	Sacks taken	3
98	Penalty yards	15

DAL		TB
366	Total yards	430
6.7	Yards per play	6.6
-0.05	Points added per play	+0.16
17	First downs	20
6	Big plays	7
3	Turnovers	0
0	Sacks taken	1
57	Penalty yards	92

DAL		HOU
410	Total yards	409
5.6	Yards per play	7.9
+0.14	Points added per play	+0.23
24	First downs	16
6	Big plays	8
0	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	2
47	Penalty yards	90

DAL		BAL
424	Total yards	378
6.0	Yards per play	6.5
+0.17	Points added per play	+0.13
24	First downs	20
5	Big plays	11
1	Turnovers	0
1	Sacks taken	0
88	Penalty yards	78

DAL		NYG
244	Total yards	395
4.7	Yards per play	5.8
+0.22	Points added per play	+0.31
16	First downs	25
1	Big plays	4
1	Turnovers	1
0	Sacks taken	2
90	Penalty yards	114

DAL v HOU	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	8-7	6-3	6-8
Happened	3-10	3-6	14-7	14-7

DAL v BAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-7	9-8	5-4	6-8
Happened	10-7	3-10	8-7	10-10