Panthers at Packers - NFL Tips & Prediction

⏱️How it unfolded

The score against the pace we expected, quarter by quarter.

The score, against the pace we expected

GBCARWhat happenedWhat we expected (GB 25, CAR 21)What the play deserved

The Packers got 9 points ahead of the pace we expected in the third quarter, then it evened out by full time.

Where it moved

▲ GB better than we expected

0Q16-3

+5Q214-7

+4Q37-3

-4Q40-6

▼ CAR better than we expected

The second quarter was where it moved most, 5 points better than our numbers for the Packers.

Every score

Q1 11:43FGR.Fitzgerald from 39 yards0-3
Q1 5:08TDJ.Love to T.Kraft, 12 yards, extra point missed6-3
Q2 14:57TDC.Hubbard from the 16-10
Q2 6:33TDJ.Jacobs from the 113-10
Q2 1:46TDJ.Love to M.Golden, 24 yards20-10
Q3 7:30TDJ.Love to J.Jacobs, 4 yards27-10
Q3 4:07FGR.Fitzgerald from 50 yards27-13
Q4 5:37TDPanthers ran it in from 26 yards27-19

⚖️What decided it

Why the Packers won, and why the Panthers did not.

From the game

Got to the quarterback six times
Kept drives alive, nine of sixteen on third down to five of eighteen

Key battles

0Sacks taken6

56%Third downs converted28%

100%Red zone trips scored50%

288Passing yards176

🏈Good plays, bad plays

The plays that went each side's way, and the ones each side did to itself.

Packers

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
J.Love to M.Golden, 24 yards
Q2 1:46 · GB 20-10 CAR
INTERCEPTION
T.Hopper picked off B.Young at the CAR 43
Q2 5:23 · GB 13-10 CAR
4TH DOWN
Stopped them on 4th & 5 at midfield
Q4 2:46 · GB 27-19 CAR

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
J.Love picked off by Z.Wheatley at the CAR 19
Q4 14:37 · GB 27-13 CAR
FUMBLE
Lost a fumble at the CAR 37
Q2 12:32 · GB 6-10 CAR

Panthers

Good plays

TOUCHDOWN
Panthers, 26 yards
Q4 5:37 · GB 27-19 CAR
INTERCEPTION
Z.Wheatley picked off J.Love at the CAR 19
Q4 14:37 · GB 27-13 CAR
FUMBLE
B.Okereke recovered a fumble at the CAR 37
Q2 12:32 · GB 6-10 CAR

Bad plays

INTERCEPTION
B.Young picked off by T.Hopper at the CAR 43
Q2 5:23 · GB 13-10 CAR
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 5 at midfield
Q4 2:46 · GB 27-19 CAR
4TH DOWN
Turned it over on 4th & 2 at midfield
Q3 12:22 · GB 20-10 CAR

📊The numbers

GB		CAR
354	Total yards	258
5.3	Yards per play	3.7
+0.12	Points added per play	-0.15
288	Passing yards	176
66	Rushing yards	82
21	First downs	14
56%	Third downs converted	28%
100%	Red zone trips scored	50%
4	Big plays	2
3	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	6
45	Penalty yards	41
31:03	Time with the ball	28:57

What's driving the pick

⏱️

How the points should come

Packers should be in front early, expect Panthers to come at them late

Packers⭐PanthersActual

6-3

Actual 6-3

Half

14-9

Actual 20-10

19-13

Actual 27-13

Final

25-21

Actual 27-19

Packers score 56% of their points before half-time

Our points call for each side, spread over the game by when they have scored and conceded this season.

⚡Momentum

How each side has been playing, the season, the last 5 and the last game.

Packers

Season7 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

Panthers

Season6 games

Last 55 games

Last gamemost recent

📊

Team Stats · Head to Head

How each side is actually playing - season form, the last 5, and their most recent game.

The stat map

CAR

Attack

Last 5Last game

Points scored20.424.41713

Per playGoodFairFairBad

Yards a play5.55.75.15.5

Passing yards285280274210

Rushing yards58.01016088

Big plays5.66.474

Defence

Last 5Last game

Points allowed17.821.42043

Per playGoodGoodGoodBad

Takeaways2.41.220

Sacks1.81.610

Ball security

Last 5Last game

Giveaways1.01.014

Sacks allowed1.43.015

Discipline

Last 5Last game

Penalty yards63.078.28156

Full-game team stats from nflverse, updated after each week.

🧮Factor breakdown

How each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ratings, efficiency, form, rest, the home field and who is out. Never from betting markets.

◀ PackersPanthers ▶

Overall rating

EPA per play

Recent form

Home field

Rest & bye week

Availability

Bars show how far each factor swings the projected margin. Built from ELO ratings, expected points added per play on both sides of the ball, recent form, home field, rest days and the injury report - never from betting markets.

🏆Season form guide

Packers

Panthers

Record4-33-3

Conference7 in NFC8 in NFC

Pts for / game20.626.5

Pts against / game20.727.7

Division1-21-1

Starting QBJordan LoveBryce Young

GB v DET	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-2	6-9	6-4	7-11
Happened	7-7	0-3	7-7	3-3

GB v DAL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	9-7	7-4	6-8
Happened	7-0	10-0	3-7	3-6

GB v CHI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-3	9-5	4-5	4-11
Happened	7-0	7-7	9-0	8-0

GB v TB	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	5-3	10-6	5-5	5-7
Happened	0-0	10-7	7-0	0-7

GB v ATL	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	4-2	8-7	8-3	5-7
Happened	7-7	0-10	0-7	7-11

A deserved win for the Packers

⏱️How it unfolded

⚖️What decided it

🏈Good plays, bad plays

📊The numbers

What's driving the pick

⚡Momentum

Team Stats · Head to Head

The stat map

🧮Factor breakdown

🏆Season form guide

Nothing in the form changes our call

Packers

Panthers

Public Opinion

GB		DET
334	Total yards	422
5.1	Yards per play	6.4
+0.04	Points added per play	-0.10
16	First downs	21
7	Big plays	7
1	Turnovers	2
1	Sacks taken	1
81	Penalty yards	50

GB		DAL
333	Total yards	306
4.8	Yards per play	4.4
+0.03	Points added per play	-0.13
17	First downs	20
6	Big plays	1
1	Turnovers	2
3	Sacks taken	1
96	Penalty yards	108

GB		CHI
437	Total yards	276
7.4	Yards per play	4.1
+0.20	Points added per play	-0.26
18	First downs	16
8	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	5
2	Sacks taken	4
25	Penalty yards	20

GB		TB
283	Total yards	289
5.1	Yards per play	4.7
+0.02	Points added per play	-0.04
13	First downs	18
3	Big plays	4
2	Turnovers	2
0	Sacks taken	3
68	Penalty yards	17

GB		ATL
329	Total yards	498
5.2	Yards per play	7.5
+0.01	Points added per play	+0.33
16	First downs	23
4	Big plays	8
1	Turnovers	1
1	Sacks taken	0
45	Penalty yards	83

CAR		TB
298	Total yards	322
5.5	Yards per play	5.4
-0.27	Points added per play	+0.20
15	First downs	20
4	Big plays	8
4	Turnovers	0
5	Sacks taken	0
56	Penalty yards	35

CAR		DET
456	Total yards	458
6.3	Yards per play	6.7
+0.24	Points added per play	+0.18
27	First downs	22
8	Big plays	5
0	Turnovers	0
3	Sacks taken	1
60	Penalty yards	67

CAR		ATL
355	Total yards	302
5.9	Yards per play	4.5
+0.10	Points added per play	-0.47
17	First downs	17
6	Big plays	3
0	Turnovers	5
2	Sacks taken	3
63	Penalty yards	39

CAR v CLE	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Expected	7-7	6-7	6-4	5-6
Happened	0-0	3-10	6-0	9-11